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[个股讨论] 大股讨论 [复制链接]

发表于 2007-11-2 22:42 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 FLYBIRD 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 FLYBIRD 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
我谈谈我的PORTFOLIO,很少有朋友做大公司股票的...

我主要持有,WOW, BNB, MBL, AGK,ANZ,NMS

昨天我减了500个ANZ,清了1000个TPI(后悔莫及,TPI在我清掉后30 MINUTES宣布进入NZ MARKET,价格一下飞起来了)......

今天进了AGK,这股已经被OVER SOLD了,一直表现是在15-16AUD的区间....我算了算,如果13AUD进,DIV RATE差不多可以拿到4%,而且这是AUS最大的ENERGY RETAILER,实力还是很强的.....

我的STRATEGY是买大公司股票,但是在他们价格被严重打压的时候买入.....BNB我是19.6进的,MBL是66进的....

NMS是个小公司,我TAKE了这个RISK,希望大家也看看,公司有专利技术,MAQAURE, JP MORGAN, NAB NOMIEES都是MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS......公司的ANNUAL REPORT也不错.....
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退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2007-11-2 23:08 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
我也希望能够像你这样投资,而不是像我现在这样投机。。。
可惜资金不够。

有些明知道是好股票但是7、80刀一股我也买不了多少。

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2007-11-2 23:16 |显示全部楼层
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另外说一句。有的时候投资基金起到了差不多的作用。
我比较喜欢imputation fund,里面的股票组成可能和你说的差不多。特别是银行、wow、MBL/BNB这类的高红利股。
Happy Wife = Happy Life

发表于 2007-11-2 23:53 |显示全部楼层
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今天进了AGK,这股已经被OVER SOLD了,一直表现是在15-16AUD的区间....我算了算,如果13AUD进,DIV RATE差不多可以拿到4%,而且这是AUS最大的ENERGY RETAILER,实力还是很强的.....

我也是前几天抄的底,希望长期持有的。

发表于 2007-11-3 09:44 |显示全部楼层
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我的CASH也不是很多,但我用的是MARGIN LENDING,现在感觉IB的报告还是不错,特别是在掌握大公司的PERFORMANCE比较准......上月打算玩个DIVIDEND PLAY 的STRATEGY..买了1000 ANZ,结果亏了1000AUD......

我现在还是比较看好FINANCIAL SECTOR............下周估计BNB,MBL还要大跌.........也是个买进的机会

发表于 2007-11-3 10:22 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-11-2 23:08 发表
我也希望能够像你这样投资,而不是像我现在这样投机。。。
可惜资金不够。

有些明知道是好股票但是7、80刀一股我也买不了多少。


投资还是投机不是资金决定的,是你的心态。你想挣快钱,所以你就想赌。

看中一个好股后守几年,你收益一样很好的。只是选中它是很费时间的。
http://longyu68.spaces.live.com/
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发表于 2007-11-3 10:45 |显示全部楼层
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07年1月26日的FR推荐的几只股和当时的股价(22/01/07)。(属于一年展望性质)
1。Woolworths $23.31.
2.BHP $25.33
3.Lion Nathan $8.30
4.CBA $50.1
5.PBL $20.10
不知道有没有人照着买。

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2007-11-3 11:12 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 FLYBIRD 于 2007-11-3 09:44 发表
我的CASH也不是很多,但我用的是MARGIN LENDING,现在感觉IB的报告还是不错,特别是在掌握大公司的PERFORMANCE比较准......上月打算玩个DIVIDEND PLAY 的STRATEGY..买了1000 ANZ,结果亏了1000AUD......

我现在还是 ...


Dividend stripping绝对是不赚钱的。这个我已经对此多次尝试,毫无例外。

能不能问一下你用的那个机构的Margin Loan以及利息怎样?

financial sector在最近一段时间内我是不敢碰的。美国的事情还没完,这次ML和citibank都出了大事情。所有金融系统的公司都会受到一定影响。
Happy Wife = Happy Life

发表于 2007-11-3 12:33 |显示全部楼层
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我用的MARGIN LOAN RATE很低...因为我本身在银行工作...拿到的RATE 8%都不到...外面一般要9%

我相信长期持有大公司的SHARE,5年后的收益会非常不错.....四大银行现在最看好WBC,最近一直也在看公司的分析报告....基本就是结合这些,还有FINANCIAL REVIEW.IRESS,.SMART INVESTORS..和YAHOO FINANCE,选股...

小股我会跟大盘....比如如果JP MORGAN,MACQUARE, NAB, UBS都成了哪个小股的MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS,我会根进,......再根据公司消息...补仓

发表于 2007-11-3 12:39 |显示全部楼层
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IB的RESEARCH REPORT我会都去看看,分析得不错,而且各大投行基本COVER 主要的MID OR LARGE CAP的公司......这些公司也是相对SAFE的对象.....

BHP 的TARGET PRICE是52AUD,UBS和GOLDMAN 的REPORT都有分析过.....当然他们也不可能是100% CORRECT

AGK个人还是觉得可以长线持有....BNB如果跌下来还是可以买入.....

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2007-11-3 13:11 |显示全部楼层
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你说的IB是哪个?
我从TA角度来看通常我看到的recommendation都是被买剩下的。

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2007-11-3 13:13 编辑 ]
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禁止访问

发表于 2007-11-3 13:13 |显示全部楼层
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哈哈哈, 你也持有TPI啊, 你放得太早了, 嘿嘿, 我有2万股TPI呢, 搞垃圾公司嘛, 嘿嘿。。。

银行股WBC是长期落后的, 进银行就要进龙头的, CBA

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2007-11-3 13:15 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 买房子啊 于 2007-11-3 13:13 发表
哈哈哈, 你也持有TPI啊, 你放得太早了, 嘿嘿, 我有2万股TPI呢, 搞垃圾公司嘛, 嘿嘿。。。

银行股WBC是长期落后的, 进银行就要进龙头的, CBA


同意CBA。WBC最近风头劲,但是还是CBA好。
Happy Wife = Happy Life

发表于 2007-11-3 20:06 |显示全部楼层
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IB指的是ML,JP,DB,UBS,GS,MB....我和朋友在其中几家工作......所以也就经常看这些报告,当然这也不是INTERNAL INFORMATION,这些都是公司卖给PUBLIC CLIENTS的.这只是我们STAFF的福利罢了.

TPI还是被看好....我是比较后悔.....

CBA一直被IB们看好,但本人在CBA工作过...实在是非常压榨STAFF,当然这点对它的SHARE PERFORMANCE却是有好处,CBA还是BUY RATING....

BNB,MBL也是BUY RATING,但RISK很高,大家可以考虑抄底入.......对了..我还买了SHL,HEALTHCARE应该是相当不错在今后5年....

发表于 2007-11-3 20:14 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 qianqian2007 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 qianqian2007 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
银行股WBC是长期落后的, 进银行就要进龙头的, CBA

How about 2WBC compare with 1CBA.

[ 本帖最后由 qianqian2007 于 2007-11-4 00:01 编辑 ]

发表于 2007-11-3 20:20 |显示全部楼层
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WBC势头不错,我们公司原来推荐CBA,ANZ....现在是CBA,WBC.......

但我还是喜欢MBL,BNB...嘿...........但买了是个心跳啊........
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退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2007-11-3 23:48 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
Interesting story about CBA..
CBA's profit haunted by dimissal tale
ON a Monday in mid-August, Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ralph Norris summoned treasury and markets high-flyers Marten Touw and Vincent Hua to his level two office and summarily dismissed them.

It was clinical, brutal and all over in a few minutes, as these things generally are.

More than two months later, though, as CBA shareholders prepare to celebrate the bank's prolonged economic sunshine at Wednesday's annual meeting, the departure of Hua and Touw is still creating an unwelcome shade.

Forensic accountants and lawyers have been swarming over a mass of transactions connected to Touw, the ex-global markets and treasury boss, and his gun trader Hua.

PricewaterhouseCoopers and law firm Freehills are helping to retrace the myriad financial steps of the duo, once feted at the most senior levels of the bank as they led an open-eyed CBA on a profitable journey up the risk curve.

Touw and Hua, through generous bonus schemes, also did very well -- probably well beyond any fantasies they might have indulged as young migrants.

As Southern Cross Equities institutional dealer Charlie Aitken memorably said, it was a case of out with the "grey cardigans" at CBA's Martin Place headquarters and in with the Zegna suits.

Or so it seemed.

Norris's decisive move that Monday could yet signal the return of the grey cardigans.

It could also cause further instability in CBA's senior management.

Since August there have been reports, rejected by no less an authority than Norris himself, of $50 million in trading losses in the month of June alone.

More recently, Chinese whispers have focused on supposed irregularities in CBA's internal transfer pricing system -- the rate at which treasury borrows from the wholesale markets and on-lends to the business units.

A rival banker comments: "Marten and Vincent were pretty aggressive and they know how to play hardball, but I never saw any evidence of inappropriate behaviour.

"In an organisation like CBA, there's not too many places to hide. It seems to me like rationality has gone out the door and now it's all about hate and revenge."

Other than to say there was a "fundamental difference of opinion" over the direction of the markets division, the bank has steadfastly refused to comment on the circumstances surrounding the departure of the two men.

A spokesman dead-bats a query about the internal transfer pricing system.

"In regard to your request for comment from the bank, we do not comment on market rumour or speculation," he says.

"Nor is it appropriate for the bank to comment on its former employees."

Touw and Hua, for their part, have told associates they are yet to receive a satisfactory explanation for Norris's dramatic intervention. They say they have nothing to fear from anything CBA might choose to throw at them. In fact, they clearly regard legal action to enforce what they see as their contractual rights as the best form of defence.

On September 3, law firm Deacons filed separate NSW Supreme Court claims seeking damages for breach of contract, interest and costs.

The consecutively numbered court files, which are unavailable for public inspection before a November 9 court mention, include seven-page statements outlining the basis of each summons.

The bank says the case will be "vigorously" defended.

In 2006, Touw's remuneration was published for the first time, apparently against his firmly expressed wishes.

He was paid $7.1 million, a healthy premium to Norris's $4.1 million stipend for his first nine months at the bank, up from $3.4 million in 2005.

Hua's undisclosed pay is believed to have been in the same range.

The difference between the Commonwealth's offer of settlement and the damages claimed by the two men is said to resemble a gaping chasm, rather than a bridgeable gap.

Conceivably, it could run to many millions of dollars.

With neither side willing to comment, it is unclear what to make of internal reports that forensic accountants are "crawling all over the place, not just in treasury but in the business units as well".

The reports may simply be a measure of the bank's determination to parry the legal thrust of Touw and Hua, or they could point to issues requiring detailed investigation.

The whispered allegations about manipulation of the bank's internal transfer pricing system suggest that bonuses, linked to revenue and profit targets in treasury, were inflated.

As with all banks, the Commonwealth's treasury operates like a bank within a bank, taking its own margin on funds that it borrows in the wholesale market and then on-lends to the business units.

While higher treasury earnings from a transfer pricing ruse could result in fatter bonuses, the overall profit outcome for the group would be broadly neutral due to offsetting slimmer margins in the businesses.

Another senior banker describes Touw as aggressive, skilful and capable.

"I'd be surprised if he has done anything underhand. It's more likely he has been smarter negotiating a transfer price and people haven't twigged," he says.

Also, unlike a decade ago when the secrets of asset and liability management were kept in a "black box", the system is now more open and transparent.

The internal price of funds for, say, the retail bank is agreed after negotiations between treasury and the business unit. Any dispute at the Commonwealth over the establishment of a transfer price is understood to be adjudicated by Norris or the bank's asset liability committee.

Such issues will no doubt be fully ventilated in the Supreme Court if the bank returns the legal fire of Touw and Hua.

In the meantime, the two have won an early skirmish in the court of public opinion by securing employment at Grange Securities, acquired by Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers earlier this year.

Touw has taken the role of fixed income head, while Hua will be head of liquid markets trading for Lehman in Sydney.

Touw, a tall, 51-year-old Dutch migrant, hooked up with Hua in the late 1990s at Shinsei Bank in Tokyo.

Stuart Grimshaw, the Commonwealth's chief financial officer at the time, who now heads the premium business services unit, lured him to the bank in 2002 to be group treasurer, with a brief to overhaul the unit and make it more commercial.

One of his initial moves was to hire his Shinsei mate, Hua, an aggressive 39-year-old trader who arrived in Australia in a leaky boat in 1986, apparently after 17 unsuccessful attempts to flee Vietnam.

Hua's grim determination to find a new home was inspired by the communist government's expropriation of the family home and his father's small business.

Soon after Touw's arrival, David Murray, the bank's chief executive at the time, moved Grimshaw into the operation, appointing him head of wealth management.

In March 2006, however, he and Touw were reunited when new chief executive Norris appointed him head of the sprawling premium business services division, which includes treasury and the premium retail, corporate and institutional banking operations.

Grimshaw and Touw set about working on a plan to bring the treasury and markets divisions together, believing there were good risk management synergies between the two groups.

Both Norris and the bank's board backed them in May last year and the strategy was applied the following month.

Whether or not the bank fully accepted it at the time, it had just signed on for a major cultural upheaval. The likes of Bank of America and Barclays might have aggressive markets operations, but for the Commonwealth, barely out of its privatisation diapers and with a proud retail banking heritage, this was more revolution than evolution.

A senior banker comments: "When you combine treasury and markets, you are putting a lot of eggs in one basket and it raises a pretty fundamental question -- are you running a balance sheet or a trading operation?

"I'd query whether the organisation was ready to ramp up its risk profile."

Hua, meanwhile, had consolidated his reputation as perhaps the nation's most aggressive trader.

Dealing in complex credit derivatives, bonds and currencies, he acquired the somewhat startling reputation of being one of the biggest counterparties to global bank Deutsche.

It is difficult to know exactly what former PwC audit partner David Craig made of all this when he walked through the doors at Martin Place for the first time in September last year, after Norris had announced his appointment as chief financial officer in July.

Craig, described by an associate as a "conservative, focused CFO not prone to bullshit", had devoted an entire career to management of risk rather than an ardent embrace of it.

For Tuow, moreover, publication of his salary for the first time in the 2006 annual report, almost coinciding with Craig's arrival, only served to fan the flames of internal resistance to his aggressive approach.

Says one insider: "Marten's salary became a debating point. People would ask why he was getting paid so much and say we don't do things like that here."

In January, Hua and his family were lucky to escape death in a car accident in Tasmania. He reportedly spent a week in Royal Hobart Hospital before a transfer to Sydney for operations on his right leg and a crushed foot.

Norris is said to have sent flowers to his ward and discussed some trading positions, leading to Hua checking himself out two days later, arriving at the office in a wheelchair and helping to trade away some losses.

From May this year, the markets division became a focus for three external reviews.

The regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, conducted a regular review, raising some concerns about Hua having both a management and trading role, while finding nothing untoward.

A PwC review of the trading room floor, performed under legal privilege, reported to former chief general counsel John O'Sullivan.

Finally, First Manhattan was engaged to advise on treasury.

The consultant's role is understood to have been split, with the treasury policy aspect of the review reporting to Craig and the rest reporting to Touw.

The writing was clearly on the wall for the bank's two high-flyers.

On August 8, The Australian Financial Review ran a lengthy piece on Hua under the headline "Where's Hua? CBA's star trader missing in action."

It said he hadn't traded for a week despite manifold opportunities in the extreme market volatility of the time.

Inside the bank, there was a tectonic struggle under way.

The bank said Hua wasn't trading because he was taking a management role.

Unnamed sources, on the other hand, said he had wound back his role due to the bank's desire to split his management and trading functions.

Touw, meanwhile, was fighting a rearguard action to keep treasury and markets together.

Ultimately he failed, and the separation process began.

While discussion had also started on Hua's package under the new structure, the summons to Norris's office fatefully intervened.

Two weeks later, long gone from the bank, Touw would be wrongly blamed for leaking a story to The Weekend Australian about the bank's aggressive tax planning through a growing presence in the Mediterranean tax haven of Malta.

The Touw-Hua conflagration remains pregnant with implications for shareholders.

Goldman Sachs JB Were, which has a sell recommendation on the bank, says the outlook for it is "somewhat more challenging given the recent departure" of the duo.

There are those who say, as well, that the highly regarded Grimshaw has been shaken a little loose by his active promotion of the two men.

Whichever way investors choose to look at it, the whole affair has been an unfortunate blot on the bank's relatively pristine record under Norris's stewardship. An aggressive restructure of a key division has been reversed amid great acrimony and all in the short space of 14 months.

As one senior banker comments: "I don't know what the politics are, but gee, shit happens."
Happy Wife = Happy Life

发表于 2007-11-4 00:28 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 FLYBIRD 于 2007-11-3 20:20 发表
WBC势头不错,我们公司原来推荐CBA,ANZ....现在是CBA,WBC.......

但我还是喜欢MBL,BNB...嘿...........但买了是个心跳啊........

我只喜欢retail bank。当年新加坡的霸凌(Barings)银行案让我总觉得MBL,BNB之类的金融体系不可靠。选WBC是觉得她比CBA便宜一半,而她的股息和增长率远高过1/2的CBA股息和增长率。p/E也可接受。没鱼,虾也好。

发表于 2007-11-4 23:18 |显示全部楼层
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WBC被各大IB 看好.....我后悔没听公司的分析...买了ANZ......但BNB发展势头不错...而且起码有2大投行是它的SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDERS.....持股比例非常高......况且BNB,MBL对SUB PRIME的EXPOSURE并不是那么大.....当然整个经济大环境对IB的PROFIT会有很大的IMPACT......如果你可以接受点RISK....可以试着买点....但建议BNB到25,MBL到77可以进.......

推荐另外一只....CPU.....大家可以关注一下.....

发表于 2007-11-4 23:59 |显示全部楼层
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卖方的report几乎都是XX。。

--------------------------------------------------------

Analyst的report,我只看买方的。。

发表于 2007-11-5 00:12 |显示全部楼层
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推荐另外一只....CPU.....大家可以关注一下.....

关注中,多谢。
最近的市场像是被推起来的,有点不敢进,等等吧。
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发表于 2007-11-7 23:38 |显示全部楼层
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my major holding
mbl,anz,rio,abs

退役斑竹

发表于 2007-11-8 20:15 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2007-11-4 23:59 发表
卖方的report几乎都是XX。。

--------------------------------------------------------

Analyst的report,我只看买方的。。


最明显是一年前的LEI,投行都嚷嚷SELL,估计他们都在下面接,贱人一堆。
海賊王に俺はなる!
背中の傷は、剣士の恥だ!
生きたいッ!
パンツ見せてもらってもよろしいでしょうか!
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but rather the one most adaptable to change.
[img][/img]

退役斑竹

发表于 2007-11-8 20:18 |显示全部楼层
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不会炒股真是一大损失

发表于 2007-11-8 20:31 |显示全部楼层
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吃喝同学最近考完试好像兴趣开始从买房转到股票了?

原帖由 吃喝拉撒睡 于 2007-11-8 20:18 发表
不会炒股真是一大损失

退役斑竹

发表于 2007-11-8 20:34 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 angelatu 于 2007-11-8 20:31 发表
吃喝同学最近考完试好像兴趣开始从买房转到股票了?



嗯。从零开始学。投资房子其实道理很简单,估计股票没那么容易。
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退役斑竹

发表于 2007-11-8 20:37 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 GoodOil 于 2007-11-7 23:38 发表
my major holding
mbl,anz,rio,abs


前几个星期6.30进的ABS,发现形势不妙,6.66出了。不明白老板手上拿着这么多货,ABS咋会掉得这么惨。
海賊王に俺はなる!
背中の傷は、剣士の恥だ!
生きたいッ!
パンツ見せてもらってもよろしいでしょうか!
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but rather the one most adaptable to change.
[img][/img]

发表于 2007-11-8 20:39 |显示全部楼层
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吃喝,你在墨尔本哪个大学?以后买房要向你多请教啊

原帖由 吃喝拉撒睡 于 2007-11-8 20:34 发表


嗯。从零开始学。投资房子其实道理很简单,估计股票没那么容易。

退役斑竹

发表于 2007-11-8 20:39 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 吃喝拉撒睡 于 2007-11-8 20:18 发表
不会炒股真是一大损失


不会炒股不是损失,真正损失是,不会炒的以为自己会炒。我以前就走过这样的长征,不好受啊。

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海賊王に俺はなる!
背中の傷は、剣士の恥だ!
生きたいッ!
パンツ見せてもらってもよろしいでしょうか!
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but rather the one most adaptable to change.
[img][/img]

退役斑竹

发表于 2007-11-8 20:41 |显示全部楼层
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原帖由 angelatu 于 2007-11-8 20:39 发表
吃喝,你在墨尔本哪个大学?以后买房要向你多请教啊


墨尔本大学。请教谈不上,互相交流吧。

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