澳洲正在重韬覆辙

西关少爷

一篇非常值得一看的文章：

AUSTRALIA is facing its own version of the US sub-prime housing crisis, with thousands of young homeowners risking bankruptcy as a result of Kevin Rudd's economic stimulus package.

That is the grim warning from the economic expert who first called the debt crisis that is driving the global financial meltdown.

Dubbing the looming crisis "Sub-Prime Lite," Professor Steve Keen told The Sunday Telegraph Australia was making the same mistakes as the US.

Professor Keen said in trying to avoid an economic crisis caused by too much borrowing, Australia was in effect encouraging the poorest in the community to take on even more debt.

"Yet these low-paid first homebuyers are the people who are most vulnerable to the economic downturn," he said.

The top end of  capital cities housing market has been suffering for some time as mass redundancies within the financial sector have forced homeowners to sell.

Meanwhile, the first-home buyer end of the market has been booming.

But economists fear this flurry of activity at the lower end has inflated prices to unsustainable levels.

In Sydney, the average property already costs nine times the average household income, while the UK and US reached a peak of only seven times average income before their markets crashed.

According to Professor Keen, the First Home Owner Grant has cost the government about $200million, but has inflated property prices by close to $3billion.

"This is all illusionary wealth that could disappear very quickly," he said.

"The additional $2.8billion or so has come from increased mortgage debt taken on by those most vulnerable to a serious economic downturn at a time when we can see very clearly that the global recession is coming our way."

The Government may well extend the first-homebuyer grant beyond its planned end-date of June 30, which Professor Keen says will end up pumping the market to even higher levels.

The University of Western Sydney professor said he had sold his Sydney house because he feared a property crash, but his gloomy view on the market has been backed by other experts.

Gerard Minack, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said property prices were likely to fall by 20 per cent in some cities, while the value of houses on coastal strips such as the NSW mid-north coast and the Gold Coast could halve.

"People paid Hamptons prices for properties up there but it is not the Hamptons," he said.

"Traditionally what has hurt people has not been rising interest rates but rising unemployment. I don't care what rate you're paying, if you have a mortgage five times your income and you lose your job, you're toast."

Mr Minack said while he understood the motivation behind the grants, encouraging marginal buyers to enter the market at this stage of the cycle (just ahead of a sharp rise in unemployment and with interest rates so low), Australia risked "creating a sub-prime underbelly in our own housing market".

With unemployment currently at just over 5 per cent, many economists are forecasting it will peak at 8-9 per cent in 2010, which will lead to a "bloodbath" in the property market as thousands of mortgagors default on their loans.

Most buyers were also taking out low, variable-rate mortgages, which left them exposed to rapidly rising rates when the economy began to recover and this would also spell trouble for many buyers.

Source：http://www.news.com.au

chychychy

sounds terrible but could be true

benbendan

失业率是终极杀手。

Devil_Star

In Sydney, the average property already costs nine times the average household income, while the UK and US reached a peak of only seven times average income before their markets crashed.

不懂这怎么计算的， 说澳洲人平均收入是6W一年， 一个普通的HOSUEHOLD收入应该在10W左右吧，大悉尼地区HOUSE的平均价怎么可能有90W刀？

gandalf

反正华人是不会上Rudd当的。

原来

怎能“独善其身”？

Treadstone

原帖由 gandalf 于 2009-3-22 13:40 发表
反正华人是不会上Rudd当的。

从最近的买房经验看正相反，华人在近期的房市上买入非常活跃。我认为原因是华人多存款，善积蓄，爱买房，故对华人影响最大的因素是interest rate的高低，也就是对贷款的承受度。只要自己尚未失业，一旦利率降下来，就会买房。这点西人不同，他们要么没什么积蓄，要么有积蓄的也很少现金或存款，资产多以各种投资形式存在，一旦经济不好，账面数字缩水严重，即使利率诱人，也会抑止购房的冲动和能力。

不过事情总有两面性。当房价下跌时，华人承跌能力也较强，反过来遏制持续下跌避免最终崩盘。所以如果真担心房价崩盘，买华人中产阶级聚居区风险较小。

GenXer

华人承守能力强。 大不了一套房子4家人住

萱草无忧

原帖由 GenXer 于 2009-3-22 16:57 发表
华人承守能力强。 大不了一套房子4家人住

呵呵这位同学太搞了～

语阁

最近房价涨的很厉害呀，今天问一套房子，居然报出了比俺预估多25%，都疯了

cicillx

偶感觉如果没有RUD政府的BONUS,应该这会买房的人也会多吧,毕竟房租跟利息差不多,而且利息有可能还会降.

terran

是不是最近很多人怕政府买房补贴不延期了，都争着买，看房的人多了很多

degra

原帖由 Devil_Star 于 2009-3-22 11:10 发表
不懂这怎么计算的， 说澳洲人平均收入是6W一年， 一个普通的HOSUEHOLD收入应该在10W左右吧，大悉尼地区HOUSE的平均价怎么可能有90W刀？

可能平均 household 只有 1.x 人工作

peng

感觉最近买房子的华人, 年轻人居多, 而且家里(国内)一般都满有实力, 所以就算澳洲经济再不好， 也不会阻挠华人的买房热情. 说实话, 真正买的起房子的华人， 不太会发愁有没有工作的。

ATO

我看到好几次有高中生开着宝马参与看房乐

西皮二黄

原帖由 terran 于 2009-3-22 21:12 发表
是不是最近很多人怕政府买房补贴不延期了，都争着买，看房的人多了很多

我觉得这个原因还是占大部分的， 不但看得多，买的也多~ 看上个房子犹豫一下子就被卖掉了。
华人因素..... 我这个小镇上华人很少的.

GenXer

原帖由 ATO 于 2009-3-22 21:20 发表
我看到好几次有高中生开着宝马参与看房乐

cow