失业率、recession和利息的那些破事

黑山老妖

今看看了这个文章非常郁闷。基本意思是经济衰退就要来了，失业率不跌但是从事服务和餐饮业、以及高收入人群的收入却要减少。
市场对澳洲利息走向的看法一下子从加息变成减息。而且是70%的可能性，还有可能一下降50点。

在NSW我的感觉是NSW经济衰退已经好久了。。。NSW工党政府非常无能，又没有矿产。商店到处打折和关张。一副萧条的样子。

The first full-employment recession

In just one week, money markets have gone from pricing in a rate increase to a 70 per cent chance of a cut in September. It has been the most dramatic shift in market sentiment in nearly a decade.

Terry McCrann, writing in the Murdoch tabloids, said last week that a rate cut in September is now “certain” – perhaps even by 0.5 per cent. That would be justified and prudent, in my view, but it would be an amazing event if “rear-view” inflation and unemployment were both still between 4 and 4.5 per cent.

On the other hand, if the Reserve Bank is still targeting the unemployment rate and worrying that labour market tightness will lead to persistent inflation, it will soon have to stop it.

The workplace has changed completely since the last recession – especially in retailing. These days many retail workers don’t have jobs; they have shifts. When business is slow they get fewer shifts. They are still officially employed, but they make a lot less money.

The same goes for Australia’s army of contractors and café operators.

Starbucks’ announcement last month that it is closing 61 of its 84 Australian stores is a sign of things to come for cafes. But it’s not just closures that will be the problem. As coffee consumption falls, café incomes will be crimped, staff will get fewer shifts and owners will have to cut back spending elsewhere.

And while the lower end of the workplace is having their shifts cut back, the top end is copping bonus shrinkage.

Those whose bonuses are tied to share prices are already in trouble; those who have got used to nice annual bonuses based on sales and profit growth have got a pay cut coming.

And the other big change since the last recession is the level of aggregate household debt.

At the individual level this means that many people with variable incomes – contractors, casual retail workers, café owners, executives on low bases and high bonuses – have geared themselves to peak incomes because they thought it would last forever (or else they didn’t really think about it).

As those incomes fall, even though they still have a job, desperation will set in. The cutback in non-essential spending from the new working poor will be more dramatic than we have ever seen.

As a result we could be in for the first full employment recession in history as demand and output contract while everyone, apparently, still has a job.

This will be an incredibly challenging time for RBA governor Glenn Stevens and his board and will require great flexibility.

The first sign of that flexibility will probably come with tomorrow’s statement accompanying the decision not to change rates.

Will the first cut happen in September? Maybe, but not certainly.

In my view the cash rate will need to be around 5 per cent this time next year, possibly in the 4s, so the governor will need to get started soon if he is not to have rates too tight during a recession and so worsen it.

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2008-8-4 09:05 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

http://www.businessspectator.com ... ocument&src=sph

I had one of those weekends where I kept running into people with fascinating perspectives on the looming acceleration of the economic downturn. My conclusion is that the early indicators we have seen are the forerunner of a much steeper downturn which will unfold over the next six months.

There is no doubt interest rates will fall. However, there are also signs that a legacy of this downturn may be dramatic lifestyle changes.

My first encounter was with a national display home builder and marketer who told me that his current sales were down only marginally but that attendances at his display villages were down 40 per cent in Queensland and Victoria.

He had checked with his rivals and found they were having a similar experience. In NSW it has been a disaster for a long time. Those lower numbers will almost certainly translate into a large fall in new home orders and, later, in building. What surprised the builder is what is happening in Queensland. He had believed for a while that Victoria was too strong, but had expected Queensland to hold.

The obvious cause was that the combination of higher interest rates, a credit squeeze, a very tough time for contractors, plus higher food and fuel prices that were slashing demand for new homes. But a rather unexpected reason bobbed up – people were not driving their cars at the weekend unless they really had to.

That lead me to my next encounter and potentially the most dramatic weekend story. A senior insurance executive told me that he was puzzled by the latest trends in car insurance. It was too early too tell (“come back in three months”, he said) but there were signs that a lot of people were locking up their second car and using it only when they had to. Accordingly, they were not comprehensively insuring it.

If that turns into a lifestyle change then we are in for a enormous blow to all sectors of the motor industry – makers, retailers, toll roads and repairers. It will transform public transport. By coincidence, in Victoria over the weekend the local transport minister was explaining how the weekend use of buses had skyrocketed. These building, insurance and bus anecdotes may be early indicators of an unprecedented lifestyle change.

Later, I ran into some Harvey Norman people who said they was enjoying the pre-Olympic boom in TV sets, but all the signs were there for a steep fall in activity.

A major social organisation which is supported by a large number of contractors reports that its annual dinner dance, which is normally rushed, sold less than 30 tickets – break even is about 160. The event was cancelled.

In Victoria the slump is being accentuated by the looming dramatic rise in private school fees in 2009 after Premier John Brumby handed out double-digit pay rises for key teacher classifications, but gave no extra money to private schools. Kevin Rudd has not come to the party.

What people on the edge are doing is budgeting and cutting down all unnecessary expenditure and this will show up in some very dramatic declines in the next six months.

黑山老妖

I think the "Recession We will Have to Have" is knocking on the doors already.
What effect will this have on the share market? How about interest rate? And what about housing market?

So many questions. Better think it through for it will impact everyone for sure.

月亮

前两天一个经济学家说2009年将是IT的冬天。。。

黑山老妖

原帖由 月亮 于 4/8/2008 09:10 发表
前两天一个经济学家说2009年将是IT的冬天。。。

现在已经是深秋了。。。

月亮

弄得人心惶惶，想跳槽的也不敢跳了

黑山老妖

现在不稳定的是那些做contracting的，不止IT。如果不是特别铁的饭碗都有点危险。

这个冬天好长，好冷。。。(paopaobing(34))

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2008-8-4 09:17 编辑 ]

fm_yy

如果这样，要推迟登陆时间了

vvguru

xxn617

真的假的啊???????
刚买房的怎么办啊????????//

serenayw

contracting的范围是？

qqyang

我们公司一个前几年都特别盈利的部门，今年开始就直接从盈利掉到亏损，唯一的办法只有降价清货，血腥惨烈啊！~~~

lyrixyang

有啥好货清仓不？你们员工有折上折吗?

lyrixyang

假如经济危机到来，我们应该怎么做？是否能全身而退呢？

我们应该投资什么吗?--比如说黄金？

cicillx

过了明年,冬天会结束吗?

canfly

Being crouching and hidden when market is weak

Devil_Star

如果按照传统经济学上对RECESSION的2 QUARTER定义， 澳洲还远着呢。不过在老百姓心目中， 这只不过是个数字游戏罢了， 减少花销， 工作机会减少，房产跌价，商铺关门，超市大减价，银行不肯轻易借钱。。。这些都是大家心目中最直接的衰退指标。

Devil_Star

原帖由 lyrixyang 于 2008-8-4 17:05 发表
假如经济危机到来，我们应该怎么做？是否能全身而退呢？

我们应该投资什么吗?--比如说黄金？

黄金在经济萧条的时候一般都是UNDERPERFORM的， 还不如投现金吃利息。

xingbu

吃利息现在最保险吗(monkey1)

风玲

对房价有什么影响呢？如果银行减息，是不是房价会涨？

wangjing_ku

刚买房，关注中

coolioo

工作都没了，减息有啥用

风玲

想买房，同样关注中。可是前面刚刚在新闻版看到房价涨了呢？墨尔本涨了14%，悉尼涨4.1%。那是不是正好应验了这篇新闻里说的减息，然后影响到就是房价上涨？

黑山老妖

原帖由 风玲 于 4/8/2008 19:34 发表
想买房，同样关注中。可是前面刚刚在新闻版看到房价涨了呢？墨尔本涨了14%，悉尼涨4.1%。那是不是正好应验了这篇新闻里说的减息，然后影响到就是房价上涨？

仔细看那个报告。全年是涨了，但是涨幅跌了，最后一个极度都是跌的。

风玲

哦，明白了。谢谢老妖指点。BTW，你这个头像好玩，昨天跑去看了功夫熊猫，太搞笑了。

Esmay

我们公司今年也要裁不少人。

jialiren

担心贷款-有点忧愁 阴雨绵绵--冷啊

江上往来人

franknet

My company is cutting costs as well. less bounes, less pay rise.

How long this winter will be? a year? two year.... if it lasts more than two year, it will be a big problem...

pal2002

别想房子，别想投资，先储备粮食吧。。。