外汇讨论贴

o_12

那对港币呢？和人民币对澳币的多少没多大影响吗？

alex1031

　　周二美元延续前两日上涨趋势，继续小幅上扬。由于市场认为美国通胀风险升高，将限制联邦储备理事会（FED）未来能够降息的程度；同时上周数据显示，美国消费者及生产者物价（CPI）上扬及非农数据均表现良好；再者因投资人赶在年底结账之前回补空头部位，市场美元需求持续，美元因而获得支撑。当日美元兑日元维持在接近六周高点水准， 美元兑欧元逼近七周高点。美元指数自开盘时77.332，最高上涨至77.51，全天小幅上扬约0.16％，现仍维持77.456附近。

　　周二欧元基本维持区间盘整走势。当日市场在谨慎判断美元是否继续反弹气氛下，欧元兑美元总体维持1.4390上下30BP的窄幅区间震荡，欧元兑美元自1.4400开盘，最高1.4418，最低1.4366，现持稳于1.4400附近运行。

　　因英国公布消费者物价指数（CPI）低于预期，周二英镑兑美元跌向两个半月低点，已下跌至2.0124附近（昨日美国市场收盘价）。:si96 中国，上海，星期三，Alex早盘报道

[ 本帖最后由 alex1031 于 2007-12-19 11:10 编辑 ]

audream

Dec 20,2007: AUD vs USD 1:0.85886

＂魸魸°

看了是降了
嘿嘿希望继续降

yamumu001

黑山老妖

人民币兑美元再创新高。今天基准价是727.79
http://business.smh.com.au/polic ... /20080103-1k2a.html

Policy shift pushes up yuan
January 4, 2008
CHINA'S central bank is again revaluing its currency, the yuan - but in contrast to the sudden one-off move that jolted global markets in 2005, the current rise is being engineered over weeks and has been signalled.

The yuan's sharp climb against the US dollar in the past few weeks, which Shanghai traders are calling a "mini revaluation", suggested the central bank was adopting a new approach to the currency market as it battled rising inflation, analysts said.

"We believe the central bank has adjusted its policy and is likely to allow periodic yuan jumps of a few per cent each this year," said the economist Wang Haoyu at First Capital Securities in Shenzhen.

"This will allow the yuan to reach the level that the government sees as appropriate very fast, so it may reduce inflows of speculative money. But the central bank will have the flexibility to conduct more rounds of appreciation later on."

The yuan closed at 7.2934 to the US dollar on Wednesday, near a post-revaluation high of 7.2930 hit in late trade, and up from its previous finish of 7.3041.

It has climbed 2.33 per cent in the past two months, the fastest rise since the revaluation. The yuan gained only 6.86 per cent in the whole of last year.

One-year dollar/yuan non-deliverable forward exchange rates implied yuan appreciation of between 9.37 and 9.46 per cent over the next 12 months from Wednesday's spot midpoint, up from 8.64-8.76 per cent implied at the end of last week.

"The yuan's rise since late October amounts to a mini-revaluation, though this time the rise is occurring through the market," said a dealer at a Chinese commercial bank in Shenzhen.

Some dealers believe the yuan will continue climbing rapidly to about 7.25 before the central bank ends its leg up.

China is allowing its tightly controlled currency to rise at a faster pace largely to fight consumer price inflation, which hit an 11-year high of 6.9 per cent in November.

In a monetary policy report that month, the central bank said explicitly for the first time that it would use the exchange rate as an important tool to fight inflation.

Growing pressure from China's trading partners and a weak US dollar globally have also convinced it to accelerate yuan appreciation.

But the contrast with the revaluation in 2005 is striking. On July 21 that year China abruptly abolished the yuan's peg to the dollar and announced the currency would resume trading 2.1 per cent higher against the dollar, at 8.11, on the next day.

It intervened in subsequent days and months to ensure that further appreciation was very gradual, with a minimum of volatility during each day and between one day and the next.

This time the central bank signalled its intention to speed up appreciation in advance, through its monetary policy report and other statements.

It then guided the yuan higher over several weeks by setting very high midpoints, or reference rates, which caused unprecedented swings in the exchange rate.

Some midpoints left the previous day's close on or outside the yuan's permitted daily trading band, which is 0.5 per cent on each side of the midpoint.

Analysts see several reasons for the change of approach.

To deter currency speculators, officials as high as the Premier, Wen Jiabao, have said the one-off revaluation will not be repeated, and China does not want to lose credibility in the markets.

China may also be particularly reluctant to make any sudden or risky move at a time of global financial uncertainty, with the US economy hit by the subprime mortgage crisis.

Chinese economists already expect export growth to slow this year, and a big slowdown is possible if the US economy falls into recession.

Appreciating the yuan in several bursts lets the central bank pause after each burst to re-evaluate the situation.

Traders believe China may also be taking another step towards liberalising and deepening its foreign exchange market, which are stated policy goals.

The sharp daily moves of the central bank's midpoints in recent weeks may be intended to prepare the market for more volatility in both directions.

Increased volatility could encourage traders to bet on large intra-day falls of the yuan as well as rises, instead of assuming the yuan will drift continuously higher.

Some traders think that to facilitate this China may soon announce another widening of the yuan's trading band.

This would move China a step further towards liberalisation, from a market in which the dollar peg has been abolished but the yuan must still move closely around a daily midpoint against the dollar, to a "dirty float" in which the yuan could move more freely under close supervision by the central bank.

Reuters

yamumu001

奇怪的是国内不是通过利率调节，而是银行紧缩银根。还是以前看有钱人提蛇皮带现金做生意生猛

audream

澳元好像最近不怎么猛了。还不如瑞士法郎。

黑山老妖

日元强劲，美元反弹。各国的股市下跌。
流在外面的资金回笼了。

飞天小猪

不知道近期的走势会怎样。。。昨天较低，可能和股市狂跌有关吧

一颗红心

镑这两天似乎反弹成功，可澳不知为何又变成了温吞水，难道2月不加息了？

另想了解一下炒汇筒子有几个上和讯论坛的？

maxsmart

春节后第五个交易日,人民币汇率中间价一举冲到7.1574,创下2008年30个交易日中的第16次新高。

近期人民币的涨势可谓异常汹涌,从2月15日起,以一天一关的速度先后冲破了7.18、7.17和7.16三个关口。   

按照昨日的中间价计算,人民币自汇改以来的累计升幅已经达13.31%,2008年以来的升幅也首次超过了2%。对比去年全年6.9%的升幅,仅仅30个交易日就2%的升值速度可以称得上“快马加鞭”。虽然最近三个交易日316个基点的上涨并不为奇,但在市场普遍看多的预期之下,短期内继续破关的可能性较大。

虽然美国上周公布的经济数据大多好于预期,总统布什也签署了总额为1680亿美元的经济刺激案,美元指数一周以来虽然只有54个点的下跌，但是美联储主席伯南克的“经济前景恶化论”给美元人气重重一击,市场对美联储3月18日降息的预期重新燃起，且美国次级债风波未尽对美元的拖累还是甚为明显。

maxsmart

投资大师罗杰斯昨天在新加坡重申了他的预言,即美元将大幅贬值,并且会失去当前作为全球头号储备货币的地位。他指出,美国已经处在衰退之中,美国欠其他国家的债务每15个月就会增加1万亿美元。“坦白说,美国已经失控了。”罗杰斯再一次表示了对商品市场的看好。他表示,商品牛市还会持续很多年,可能一直到2020年。“这波牛市可能会在某一天到头,但那将是很久以后的事。”曾预言了上一轮商品牛市的罗杰斯说。:) :)

audream

澳元创新高至0.93美元，人民币回落至7.15，
AUD:CNY = 6.67
(来源：www.xe.com)

北风

回头看看这个还是蛮好的，当时是0.86xx
现在要考虑在前期高点减仓，拿一部分利润出来

原帖由 北风 于 22/11/2007 09:42 发表
应该有很多人开始建澳元的仓了
向北看500-1000点

黑山老妖

Bloomberg - Dollar Falls to 12-Year Low Against Yen on Carlyle Fund Failure

By Stanley White and Kosuke Goto
Enlarge Image/Details

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to the weakest since 1995 against the yen and a record low versus the euro after a Carlyle Group fund failed to reorganize debt.

The currency also slid to an all-time low against the Swiss franc as Carlyle said its mortgage-bond fund had defaulted on about $16.6 billion of debt as of yesterday. Government reports today will probably show U.S. retail sales growth slowed and unemployment claims rose. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. last week joined a growing list of banks predicting a U.S. recession.

``Investors are getting out of dollar assets and this is going to lead to a dollar crash,'' said Tetsuhisa Hayashi, chief currency manager of foreign-exchange trading in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest publicly traded lender. ``The U.S. economy is getting worse.''

The U.S. currency fell to 100.49 yen at 7:08 a.m. in London after reaching 100.03, the lowest since Nov. 10, 1995, from 101.79 in New York late yesterday. The dollar declined to as low as $1.5586 per euro, the weakest level since the European currency's 1999 debut. The euro dropped to a month low, trading at 155.71 yen from 158.30.

The dollar bought 1.0111 Swiss francs, after reaching a record low of 1.0091. The British pound rose to $2.0301 from $2.0270. The Australian dollar advanced to 93.47 U.S. cents from 93.33 cents after data showed companies in the Southern Hemisphere country hired extra workers for a record 16th month.

The Singapore dollar rose to a record of S$1.3795 per dollar. China's yuan gained to 7.0950 against the dollar, strengthening beyond 7.1 for the first time since a fixed exchange rate ended in 2005.

Carlyle Talks

Japanese authorities sold the currency on all four occasions since 1995 when the yen approached the 100 mark in a bid to support exporters including Toyota Motor Corp., the world's second-biggest automaker.

``We must continue cost cuts by all means, but the currency has reached the level where we have to think about other measures,'' Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe told reporters in Tokyo today. A 1 yen gain in the Japanese currency against the dollar cuts Toyota's annual operating profit by 35 billion yen ($349 million), according to the automaker.

A rising yen and record energy prices are starting to weigh on corporate earnings, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said. Naoyuki Shinohara Japan's top currency official, said March 10 the Finance Ministry is ``carefully'' watching the foreign-exchange market, while stopping short of suggesting policy makers will intervene.

Bush Comments

U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday in an interview with the U.S. Public Broadcasting Service that the dollar is ``adjusting'' and its decline isn't ``good tidings'' for the strong dollar policy that he favors.

``Bush's comments were about as lukewarm as you can get,'' said Brian Dolan, research director at Forex.com, a unit of currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. ``Some may have interpreted his `adjusting' comment as tacit acceptance that we're in a broad-based dollar devaluation.''

The Central Bank of Jordan is reducing the amount of dollars in its foreign reserves because of the declining value of the U.S. currency and the need to service debt, Deputy Governor Faris Sharaf said yesterday in an interview. The Jordanian dinar has been pegged to the dollar since October 1995.

A Qatar central bank official denied an Emirates Business 24/7 report that policy makers from six Gulf Cooperation Council nations will consider currency revaluation when they meet next week. The dollar's 10 percent drop against the euro last year has stoked inflation in the region. China wants to invest more of its $1.5 trillion in reserves abroad, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said yesterday.

Money Moving Away

``We're probably going to remain in the situation where long-term money moves away from the dollar,'' said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. `There is a lot of discussion in the market about China. There's also a lot of discussion about the Middle East.''

The U.S. currency may weaken below 100 yen, he said. The dollar will extend its slide against the euro to $1.57 by the end of June as Middle Eastern countries and China diversify their reserves, said National Australia Bank Ltd., the nation's biggest bank by assets.

The yen climbed as much as 1.8 percent against the dollar as Amsterdam-listed Carlyle Capital Corp. said talks with lenders had failed. Drake Management LLC, the New York based- firm, said yesterday it may shut a $3 billion hedge fund, while Amsterdam-based GO Capital Asset Management BV blocked clients from withdrawing cash from one of its funds.

Recession Risk

The Dollar Index traded on ICE Futures in New York, which compares the currency to those of six trading partners, declined to a record low of 71.99. U.S. retail sales rose 0.2 percent in February after a 0.3 percent gain in January, according to a Bloomberg survey before the Commerce Department data today. Separate Labor Department data will show first-time claims for jobless benefits rose to 357,000 last week from 351,000, a separate survey showed.

Since hitting a 4 1/2-low on June 22, the yen has rallied 24 percent against the dollar. Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan, said at a dinner in Washington yesterday the U.S. economy is now in a recession and financial institutions are about half-way finished with solving their problems.

``The dollar looks in real trouble and there is no obvious resistance level against the euro,'' said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney. ``I don't think you can pick a level for where it will stop.''

The dollar also fell as firms from Citigroup Inc. to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday the Federal Reserve's plan to inject $200 billion into the banking system may fail to break the freeze in money-market lending.

U.S. Rates

Traders bet the Fed will cut its rate as much as 0.75 percentage point on March 18 to avert a recession. The likelihood of a reduction to 2.25 percent was 76 percent, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. The balance of bets is on a cut to 2.5 percent.

The Fed's measures are ``not a panacea, more like an aspirin for the dollar,'' analysts led by Daniel Tenengauzer, New York-based head of global currency strategy at Merrill Lynch & Co., wrote in a research note. The dollar may decline to $1.57 per euro this month, Merrill forecast on March 6.

Interesting reading. The status of US$ as default reserve currency will be questioned and shaken. Can US$ ever get back to where it was?

audream

今天美元涨了不少，人民币涨了也不少。

一颗红心

请教老妖大师，本周六EPPING CLUB有昆仑国际的外汇讲座，已报名了。
以前就想听听讲座，可都离CARLINGFORD太远，实在没时间。这次总算在EPPING还比较近，就报了。
您认为这样的讲座值得新学外汇的人去听吗，还有昆仑国际似乎是专做外汇的，您了解些该公司的情况吗？
请给些意见，谢！

黑山老妖

原帖由 一颗红心 于 26/3/2008 00:33 发表
请教老妖大师，本周六EPPING CLUB有昆仑国际的外汇讲座，已报名了。
以前就想听听讲座，可都离CARLINGFORD太远，实在没时间。这次总算在EPPING还比较近，就报了。
您认为这样的讲座值得新学外汇的人去听吗，还有昆 ...

我根本算不上大师。 休才是大师。

讲座了肯定是把一切说得非常容易，赚钱就像是吃瓜子一样。好像钱就在眼前，只要伸手取了就可以了。
这种讲座听听没问题，就好像那些房地产讲座和CFD讲座。听过就好，不要当真了。

一颗红心

多谢您的回复啦，谨记！
不过您说休才是大师，我好像没什么印象啊？他的帖子是在外汇坛子里吗?

一颗红心

不好意思，LG刚提醒我休就是斑竹！
历来上了足迹网就直奔外汇，一看没什么新的就立马掉头找其他好玩东东，从没注意过斑竹是谁，
在此郑重道歉！
求知若渴，期待斑竹大作！

墨生常谈

好冷清哦，

黑山老妖

最近做外汇的人比较少了。

墨生常谈

很快就会出行情了，版主可否组织一些行情讨论，尤其是澳元？

cai9801

股票还懂，外汇怎么做的，一直有想做。但是不知道怎么回事。有基础教程吗？

如果自己做外汇，差价还不够手续费吧。

zhangcyer

做外汇的同志们都来谈谈近期的aud/usd啊

kr2000

澳元最近在9500-9650窄幅波动,动静不大啊，观望为主

audream

最近澳元走低了。6.47。要换钱的赶紧了。

那么高那么远

。。。

[ 本帖最后由 那么高那么远 于 2008-6-19 18:53 编辑 ]

audream

原帖由 那么高那么远 于 2008-6-18 18:18 发表
绝对新手提问：

请问外汇的收益大概是多少， 刚开始学，可是收益高的太吓人了，
3天就有50%了
是我运气好，还是比较普遍的收益？
请黑妖大师明示。。。。。。。

是啊，收益高啊，3天就有50%了，半天就有 -100%了，挺吓人的。