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The peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey in early 2022 initially showed some promise but ultimately failed due to several key reasons:
1. Russian Atrocities in Bucha (Trust Breakdown)
The talks in March 2022 seemed to be making progress, with Ukraine proposing neutrality (giving up NATO ambitions) in exchange for security guarantees.
However, after Russian forces withdrew from areas around Kyiv, evidence of massacres in Bucha and other towns emerged. The discovery of executed civilians and war crimes made it politically impossible for Ukraine to continue negotiations in good faith.
This led to a hardening of Ukraine’s stance, with President Zelensky ruling out further peace talks unless Russian leaders were held accountable.
2. Russian Bad Faith and Insincerity
Many Western analysts and Ukrainian officials believed Russia was not negotiating in good faith.
While Russia engaged in talks, it continued its military offensives, indicating that negotiations might have been a stalling tactic.
Some reports suggest Putin did not seriously consider the Turkish peace efforts, viewing military pressure as the primary means to force Ukraine into submission.
3. Security Guarantee Disagreements
Ukraine proposed a system where major global powers (like the US, UK, and Turkey) would act as security guarantors.
Russia rejected the idea, arguing that such guarantees could lead to future conflicts.
Ukraine also insisted that Crimea and Donbas needed to be addressed in negotiations, while Russia demanded their recognition as Russian territories.
4. Western Influence and Military Aid
As the war continued, Ukraine received increasing military support from NATO and the US, strengthening its ability to resist.
Some reports indicate that Western leaders (particularly UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson) urged Ukraine not to rush into a settlement that could allow Russia to regroup and attack later.
The shift in military momentum led Ukraine to favor continuing the fight rather than compromising.
5. Putin’s Overconfidence and Changing War Goals
Early Russian proposals seemed to indicate they were willing to negotiate, possibly expecting a quick Ukrainian collapse.
However, as the war dragged on, Putin expanded Russian war aims, making a compromise harder.
In September 2022, Russia illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), making negotiations even more difficult.
Conclusion
While there was a brief window for peace in March–April 2022, the Bucha massacre, Russian insincerity, disagreements over security guarantees, Western military aid, and Putin’s changing war goals all contributed to the collapse of talks. After that, the war escalated, making diplomacy even harder.
Would you like a deeper analysis on any of these points? |
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楼主:astina
发表于 2025-2-24 21:22
