Great Depression fall looms

黑山老妖

From SMH article. http://www.smh.com.au/news/busin ... /1182623823367.html

A Beijing sale ... some 40 per cent of China's state-owned enterprises are losing money, exposing the banks to likely stress.

A Beijing sale ... some 40 per cent of China's state-owned enterprises are losing money, exposing the banks to likely stress.
Photo: AFP
Jacob Saulwick and Telegraph, London
June 26, 2007

THE risk of a 1930s-style economic slump has been heightened by "euphoric" markets tapping cheap global credit, one of the world's pre-eminent financial institutions has said.

In its annual report the Bank for International Settlements noted that the conditions which led up to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Asian crises in the 1990s were reflected in the current environment.

"Each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived," the bank said.

The BIS, the central bankers' bank, pointed to a confluence of worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.

"Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. 'Tail' events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed," it said.

The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s when Tokyo let rip with excess liquidity. "The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms," it said, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom and "massive investments" in heavy industry.

Some 40 per cent of China's state-owned enterprises are losing money, exposing the banking system to likely stress in a downturn.

It said China's growth was "unstable, unbalanced, unco-ordinated and unsustainable" - borrowing a line from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao.

In a thinly-veiled rebuke to the US Federal Reserve, the BIS said central banks were starting to doubt the wisdom of letting asset bubbles build up on the assumption that they could safely be "cleaned up" afterwards - which was more or less the strategy pursued by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan after the dotcom bust.

It said this approach had failed in the US in 1930 and in Japan in 1991 because excess debt and investment built up in the boom years had suffocating effects.

But the bank also said that tightening interest rates during an upswing was likely to bring significant practical difficulties - a fact the Reserve Bank of New Zealand knows well.

The RBNZ has lifted interest rates to 8 per cent this year in an effort to slow the economy and ward off price rises. But the high rates have attracted global investors who have driven the New Zealand dollar to record highs.

The Australian dollar has also been boosted by relatively tight interest rate settings, hitting an 18-year high of US84.99c yesterday.

The bank's concern about the development of asset bubbles in real estate and share prices was mirrored by participants at a World Economic Forum on East Asia conference in Singapore yesterday.

"There is a high degree of complacency, coming out of the long period of low interest-rate environment, and a low volatility environment," Singapore's Second Finance Minister, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, said.

With Bloomberg

vvguru

A great lesson learned in the past is too much opportunity lost when trying to short on China,
every Chinese knows state-owned enterprises are debt-ridden, banks giving out loans on open
cheque book in the hope government will bail them out. Chinese has its own ways to fix it.

Look at the bigger picture, China's rising is inevitable and has a long way up. To restore China's
glory back in the history, China's economy should be at least 4 times as big as Japan's to achieve
what it deserves in the world.

大球球

原帖由 vvguru 于 2007-7-18 13:30 发表
A great lesson learned in the past is too much opportunity lost when trying to short on China,
every Chinese knows state-owned enterprises are debt-ridden, banks giving out loans on open
cheque  ...

You have to consider the economy structure and citizen warefare, not only a GDP figure.

大球球

"Chinese has its own ways to fix it. "


A Chinese way to fix those problem is to rip off from normal people to keep those banks and enterprises running.

galway

原帖由 大球球 于 2007-7-18 13:49 发表
"Chinese has its own ways to fix it. "


A Chinese way to fix those problem is to rip off from normal people to keep those banks and enterprises running.

vvguru

i am not saying it shouldn't be improved on those aspects, but since when in the memory China ever has human
equality & social justice? we've had worse i have to say. and now all the sudden we are in crisis mode? lol

[ 本帖最后由 vvguru 于 2007-7-18 15:35 编辑 ]