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原帖由 吃喝拉撒睡 于 2007-3-22 10:14 发表
我是相信cycle的。一个cycle完毕，中间各种各样的调整，是正常的。
市场上的各种信息，其实都仅仅反映了author的立场。就像每次股市牛的时候，散户中真地相信会跌的没几个，其中大户的决定永远都比信息来得 ...
"...一定注意到了在东南区距离CT15KMZ范围内的房子，真的是疯长，auction比开拍价高出10多万根本司空见惯"
auction比开拍价高出10多万根本司空见惯也可能反映了中介的策略和其他原因.今年比去年的绝对增长是最重要的, 我不认为是疯长, 因为
Melbourne Residential Auction Results 08 March - 14 March 2007
Auction Median Price $387,500
比去年全年$373000, 大概在3.8%左右,但此涨幅是在许多人等了 一年,和利率不变甚至要下调以及房租将上涨幅度10-20的大气候下. 现在这三个条件反了,拭目以待,这个周末的AUCTION.更要看月底的CPI.如果四月份加息,因该有反应.
同意CYCLE说,问题是目前是DOWN 还是UP,这是关键!!!
SUPPLY/DEMAND: 一个重要的原因是房租上升迫使一些人买被炒起来的房,如果房租不高,有些人还是愿意等等,看谁能撑得更久. 事实上,房贷坏帐在增加, 参阅下面的
Loan defaults on the increase, putting more out of house and home
Email Print Normal font Large font Nassim Khadem, Canberra
March 16, 2007
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AdvertisementHOME seizures and sales that result from people defaulting on debt has jumped by over 25 per cent in the past year, according to Australia's largest privately owned debt collection agency.
Roger Mendelson, chief executive of debt collection agency Prushka, said when people defaulted on loans other than mortgages, the risk was that they could lose equity in their homes, essentially meaning they lost their house.
The agency services more than 37,000 clients nationally in recovering debt. Mr Mendelson said there were now at least five cases a week lodged with the courts for home seizures and sales, which was an increase of more than 25 per cent a year.
"This is the end of the line; to have got there is a problem," he said. "People fight very hard to keep their house, and usually end up coming up with the money. But about 10 per cent (annually) lose their home. Before, the figure was almost nil."
Mr Mendelson said the other problem was that the longer people fought in the courts, the more debt they incurred. "They have to pay the costs of the judgement. The legal costs of the seizure and sale roughly comes to about $2500 per case. In Victoria the rate of interest on the judgement is 12 per cent."
The Reserve Bank is closely watching mortgage defaults, having recently received information from real estate agent Ray White that mortgage defaults in Sydney's west had soared.
Figures from the Supreme Court of Victoria show the number of monthly repossessions increased in January to 223, up from 184 in December. There were 2791 property-repossession claims lodged last year, up from 2578 in 2005. Most relate to private home buyers defaulting on repayments.
The figures show that repossessions have more than doubled since 2003, when there were 1225. There were 1773 in 2004.
The situation is expected to get worse. A Macquarie Mortgages survey in November found that 61.4 per cent of residential brokers expected to see an increase in mortgage stress and defaulting. But Mr Mendelson said the problem was that the Supreme Court figures only recorded forced repossessions, not voluntary ones. He called on the Federal Government to legislate for a national register of mortgage defaults, and suggested that the Real Estate Institute of Victoria collate the data.
But REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo said the banks were best placed to collect that information and provide it to the RBA. "There are anecdotal suggestions that in outer metropolitan Melbourne, in the mortgage belt, there has been an increase (in mortgage defaults)," he said. "It wouldn't surprise me because we had three rate rises last year
还是欢迎大家发言,最好提出自己的观点,并给出论据(Prefer specific rather than too general or common sense). 谢谢! |
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发表于 2007-3-22 10:29
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