|
|
澳洲联储副主席 强劲澳元正阻止经济过热
此文章由 长安雪梨 原创或转贴，不代表本站立场和观点，版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 长安雪梨 所有！转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明，并保持内容完整
澳洲联储副主席洛威(Philip Lowe) 2011年3月9日指出，澳元强势正阻止经济过热，并称政策灵活性极其重要。
l
澳洲联储的目标是将通胀维持2%-3%的区间。
l
如果澳元/美元在0.70的水平，澳洲经济将过热。
澳元强势的一个重要作用是阻止澳洲经济过热，RBA极少对澳元汇率进行干预。
未来澳元汇率可能随着商品价格的回落而下调，区间将在0.85-0.95。
l
尽管消费者和企业信心仍然高出平均水平，但消费意愿不强烈。
RBA正与零售商保持密切联系，并密切关注不景气的零售业数据。
l
澳洲接近纪录高位的贸易条件在提高投资和获利，令企业增聘雇员的意愿增强，同时实际薪资也有所增长。澳大利亚贸易条件比上世纪90年代均值高约90%，但不确定这种贸易条件的繁荣能持续多久。
l
未来几年，澳经济仍将维持两种不同的增速，在目前经济中闲置生产力相对不足的情况下，采矿业增长动能日渐强劲。而制造业、零售业则受打击。
l
由于无法确保这股采矿业热潮能持续多久，因此RBA保持政策的高度灵活对央行来说是至关重要的。也意味着RBA 不仅可以升息，也可以根据需要灵活减息
l
澳洲联储对这股资源热潮进行管理的唯一工具是利率。
High exchange rate 'incredibly stabilising' for economy: Philip Lowe
March 09, 2011
AUSTRALIA'S historically high exchange rate is preventing the economy from overheating and would quickly adjust lower in the event of a commodities bust, a top central bank official said today.
The Australian dollar, traded as a proxy for Asia's burgeoning growth, remains above parity against the greenback on the back of a once-in-a-century mining boom in Australia as Asia hoovers up the country's key resources exports.
"A higher exchange rate is an incredibly stabilising influence," Philip Lowe, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a question and answer session after a speech.
"Flexibility is incredibly important" in the exchange rate, he said.
The remarks illustrate how comfortable policy makers are with the currency's strength, which traded at $US1 last October for the first time since deregulation in 1983. It hit an all-time high of $US1.025 on December 31.
If the Australian dollar was trading at US70 cents, the economy would clearly be overheating, Mr Lowe said. Instead, it serves as a cushion for the economy and provides equilibrium during a boom or bust.
"If commodity prices were to come down a long way, the exchange rate would obviously adjust to that," the RBA official said, acknowledging that the currency's strength is also hurting manufacturers.
The RBA rarely intervenes to affect the currency, only doing so to smooth liquidity and not targeting a level.
Mr Lowe said while the mining boom posed a "tremendous opportunity" for Australia and was boosting confidence. However, he said, trying to predict future spending patterns of a relatively subdued consumer, even as the jobs market approached near full employment, is the "64 million dollar question".
He welcomed the higher savings rates among households and noted that both consumer and business confidence remained above average levels, notwithstanding weak retail sales and the floods in Queensland.
"In general terms, it is likely consumer sentiment will stay relatively high," he said.
"There is a latent optimism that people feel about the future." The bank is closely liaising with industry participants and is glued to monthly data releases as it tries to gauge the mood on High Street, Mr Lowe said.
"We have an open mind here. Like everyone else, we are looking at the data, we are talking to people, we are talking to retailers trying to understand what is going on in consumers’ minds."
Consumer sentiment fell 2.4 per cent in March from February, according to the most widely watched index of consumer confidence, which is produced by Westpac Banking Group and the Melbourne Institute.
|
评分
-
查看全部评分
|
参加活动 --- 【狸出品】 之 【たこ焼き】 地道関西風の章鱼焼小丸子 (2013-4-8) 黑芝麻狐儿 
发表于 2011-3-9 13:52
