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本帖最后由 Hetbert 于 2018-10-24 21:32 编辑
Bellamy's Australia said full-year sales for its baby formula will be at the lower end of its guidance, and first-half revenue will fall by up to 15 per cent as it looks to run down trade stock ahead of a brand upgrade.
The Launceston-based company is also still waiting to hear from Beijing regarding its application to sell Chinese-labelled product in China. Ten months after filing its application to the new market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation (formerly called China Food and Drug Administration), it has yet to be aprpoved.
In August, chief executive Andrew Cohen said he expected to gain the certification this calendar year but at the company's annual meeting in Tasmania on Wednesday he had no firm update, only saying he was "confident and respectful of the process".
Mr Cohen also reiterated to shareholders on Wednesday the baby food and formula manufacturer's 2018-19 performance will be hurt by slower category growth and a more competitive trading environment.
The disappointing update sent the stock tumbling 51¢, or 6 per cent, to $7.98.
BAL
BELLAMYS FPO (BAL)
$7.98-0.51-6.01%
volume 3604293 value 28392342.3
"We do see a more challenging 2018-19 trading environment, and have observed slower China cross-border growth across the category, as well as increased competition in terms of both availability and trade pricing for both local and global competitors," he said.
"We view these changes as short-term challenges ... The underlying segment potential remains significant and the macro-trends for both organic formula and food, and the cross-border ecommerce channel remain relevant, especially in China."
Running down inventory
Mr Cohen added that the company needs to run-down inventory sitting with distributors prior to a fresh product launch in the second half of the year, which will impact first-half sales by $10 million to $15 million. He also flagged the possible increase of the already stated $6 million write-off provision set aside last financial year for the launch.
The provision had to be taken in order to protect the brand's integrity in China since the distributor owns the China-labelled stock, and Bellamy's must buy that stock back in order avoid two labels (one new and one discounted) simultaneously being sold, Mr Cohen said in August.
Bellamy's will now also be including fresh local Australian milk, and extending the formula range to include formulations for older children and also pregnant or breastfeeding mothers.
"We have also already launched the new premium branding for food, expanded food ranging to include Woolworths, and launched an enhanced cereal range fortified with GOS pre-biotic, a sugar-free custards range and a new exotic fruit pouch range aligned to Chinese preferences," Mr Cohen added.
Bellamy's said on Wednesday, given recent category performance, it anticipates full-year Australian label revenue growth at the low end of the stated zero to 10 per cent range this year. Australian label sales of baby formula reached $302 million in fiscal 2018, up from $203 million in fiscal 2017.
Full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins will continue to sit at 22 per cent to 25 per cent on a normalised basis, excluding any further write-downs for the brand upgrade, which is in line with the second half of 2018.
Stronger performance is expected in second half of this year as normal trading patterns return and the group implements key revenue initiatives including the brand upgrade launch, it said.
Analysts have warned there are a range of factors which could influence the milk space going forward.
A paper from Bloomberg analysts on Wednesday afternoon pointed to "downside risk" from anticipated changes to e-commerce laws in China from January.
"The entire industry will also be hurt by declining birth rates," analyst Shen Li wrote.
1990年中国人口出生率为2.1%，而到了2000年中国人口出生率就断崖式降到了1.4%的超低水平，2017年进一步降到了1.24%（世界平均水平为2.5%）
中国新生人口逐年走低，开放二胎之后的2017年比2016年，少生了60万，中国的年出生人口将以每年减少30万到80万的速度下降，可能会跌到1150万的水平。
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参加活动－－简单家庭晚餐-更新第三晚23日 (2010-7-21) chatchat 
发表于 2018-10-24 20:27
大体意思就是说，中国新生儿市场的大饼越来越小，分饼的狼越来越凶残，澳洲奶粉股长期前景不乐观。
发表于 2018-11-2 21:50
