Gold Goes Backwardation

kingsford

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles/AEFRedAlert.pdf
立贴纪念.
"December 2, 2008, was a landmark in the saga of the collapsing international monetary system, yet it did not deserve to be reported in the press: gold went to backwardation for the first time ever in history." (Note by Kingsford: Actually, there were two other very "short-lived" backwardation in the past.. both predicted a big gold bull market. But this one "could" be a permanent one. It spills over to the Feb/09 contract.)

呵呵,当然不可全信.我也是捡我爱听的传达一下.

[ 本帖最后由 kingsford 于 2008-12-6 15:31 编辑 ]

铁板烧

看不懂，解释一下?

黑山老妖

先要解释一下backwardation什么意思：在期货市场里面期货价格低于现价，或是远期价格低于近期。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backwardation

Backwardation is a futures market term: the situation in which, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for future delivery is lower than the spot price, or a far future delivery price lower than a nearer future delivery. One says that the forward curve is "in backwardation" (or sometimes: "backwardated"). "Backwardization" is an incorrect variant of the term. Backwardation is a situation where the cash price of a commodity is pregnant with a premium a buyer is willing to pay for the immediate delivery of the commodity.

Formally, backwardation means a downward sloping forward curve (as in an inverted yield curve). A backwardation starts when the difference between the future price and the cash price is less than the cost of carry, or when there can be no delivery arbitrage because the asset is not currently available for purchase.

The opposite market condition to backwardation is known as contango, in which the spot price is lower than the futures price. Different from contango, backwardation the difference between the cash price and the future price is unlimited. There have been situations in metal markets in the last 30 years where there was a contango in nearby quotes and a backwardation in two different futures quotes.

Backwardation very seldom, if ever, arises in money commodities like gold or silver, except one situation in the early 1980's when there was a one day backwardation in silver while some metal was physically moved from COMEX to CBOT warehouses[citation needed].

The term is sometimes applied to forward prices other than those of futures contracts, when analogous price patterns arise. For example, if it costs more to lease silver for 30 days than for 60 days, it might be said that the silver lease rates are "in backwardation."

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2008-12-6 20:25 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

My interpretation of this information is: deflation is on the horizon!

kingsford

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-12-6 20:26 发表
My interpretation of this information is: deflation is on the horizon!

One possibility... After reading all the different analysis on this one, I am now not very sure what it means... maybe just a lack of confidence on delivery. Interesting times...

MingDeng

谢谢分享...