CMC Markets专栏: 上周市场回顾， 本周大事展望 16/11- 22/11

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上周市场：

上周全球各大股指均有下滑，主要受大宗商品价格再次跳水与美国加息预期影响。美国标普指数500下滑3.63%；欧洲斯托克50下滑3.10%；英国富实指数100下滑3.71%；香港恒生指数下跌2.06%； 澳指200下跌3.14%。



大宗商品方面, 原油价格继续走低， 美国德克萨斯原油价格下跌3.55美元至40.74美元，跌幅达8.0%；英国布伦特原油下滑7.7%至44.47美元；黄金继续走低，收盘1083.91美元/盎司。
美国10年期国债收益率从2.33%下跌至2.27%，德国10年期国债收益率从0.69%下滑至0.56%。
美元上周有所下滑，其他货币相对均有回调。纽币与澳币仍然强首支持位置，纽币/美元上涨0.46%，收盘0.6537；澳币/美元上涨1.42%，收盘0.7126。

上周大事回顾：

欧洲央行行长德拉吉对于欧洲经济表态不乐观，使得市场风险偏好升高。在11月12日的讲话中他再次表示，由于中国与新兴市场经济增长下行风险与希腊债务问题，欧洲核心通胀率转点上行的迹象有所减弱，欧洲央行对于其货币宽松政策的尺度将可能进一步放宽，主要将体现在印刷纸币以提高货币供给量。现行资产购买力度为600亿欧元/月，此项目将在2016年9月份结束，欧洲央行总购买量将达1万亿欧元。

美联储仍然支持加息。与欧央行德拉吉讲话同一天，美联储主席耶伦表示：对于后经济危机的货币政策的转折与汇率机制将是至关重要的，应该被慎重实行。并指出美联储副主席Fischer将对于货币政策的过度做出传达。由于Fischer一向支持美国尽早加息，将货币政策提到正常轨道上来，这便可以预测未来的会议中，可能会有更加鹰派的言论出台。

中国10月份工业生产增长率再次下滑。中国10月份工业生产较前月增长5.6%， 低于预期5.8%, 低于9月份数据5.7。同时，零售数据稍显强势录得增长10.2%，好于预期的10.9%，主要是借助于10月份国庆节的长假所引导的消费增长。然而，10月份进出口数据仍然显示近期经济增长的薄弱，进口总值环比回落16%，出口总值滑落3.6%。

新西兰央行行长维拉称金融体系风险上升。金融体系中的风险主要体现在三个方面: 一是全球大宗商品市场的弱势下行使得乳制品价格难以复苏, 奶农面临第二年的资金周转困境; 二是奥克兰房价增长速度高于居民收入增长愈加严重, 房市可能面临修正下行风险; 三是全球融资风险, 可能在未来有倒塌的可能. 由于在被问及新西兰货币政策时维拉拒绝答复，可能给出市场暗示，新西兰短期内并无再次降息的预期。

澳大利亚10月份就业数据好于预期，澳币大涨。澳大利亚10月份就业人数增长58600人口，失业率下降到5.9%，好于第三季度的6.0%。 使得澳联储对于官方利率再一次下调的可能性减小。澳币对美元汇率当日大涨60点，后稍有回调，目前就运行于0.7120附近。

欧洲第三季度GDP数据表现稳定。第三季度增长录得0.3%， 差于预期0.4%，较第二季度下降0.1个百分点。其中，德国增长0.3%，与预期吻合；法国增长0.3%，远好于前置；意大利表现最差，其第三季度GDP增长录得0.2%。

周末法国发生IS恐怖袭击事件，G20国家领导人对此共同发出强力回应。在11月14日， 法国巴黎多处发生恐怖袭击事件，据不完全数据统计，死亡人数达140人。G20国家对此发出严厉谴责，并希望对叙利亚内战问题采取更进一步的政治解决方案。美股总统奥巴马称再次对IS恐怖组织军力再加一倍。

本周大事展望：

周一：新西兰第三季度（核心）零售数据
             日本第三季度GDP初值
              欧洲央行行长德拉吉讲话
周二：加拿大9月份制造业销售数据
            澳联储货币政策内容
            新西兰第三季度通胀率预期
            英国10月份通胀率
             德国11月份ZEW经济敏感度调查
周三：美国10月份（核心）通胀率
              全球乳制品拍卖
周四：美国10月份建筑许可
             美国FOMC会议内容公布
             日本货币政策内容
             日本央行新闻发布会
              英国10月份零售数据
周五：美国申请救济金人数
            美国费城11月制造业指数
             欧洲央行行长德拉吉讲话
周六：加拿大10月份核心通胀率
             加拿大10月份核心零售数据


Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
           

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根据日本政府部门的统计，日本第三季度GDP环比下跌0.8%，同比第二季度下跌0.2%。这也许证实了许多经济学家的预测，日本经济进入了自总理安倍2012年12月任职后的第二次衰退。似乎安倍定律并为使得日本真正走出经济衰退的阴霾。

由于中国经济增长放缓与全球经济现状的担忧，日本商业投资缩减，企业库存量呈现萎缩，使得日本国内企业缩减开支并放缓生产。此次数据很可能导致日本总理安倍与央行行长Haruhiko Kuroda加大财政与货币的宽松力度。东京伊藤忠商事株式会社的一位经济学家称：“（第三季度经济）报告显示人本经济将继续其不良表现”，“对于资产投资支出的削弱成为最大的担忧。虽然（日本公司）对于其远景计划很有信心，但对于国内经济的弹性与国际经济的形势并不乐观”。

日本第三次经济报告显示，库存量较上季度下降0.5个百分点；商业投资较上季度缩减1.2个百分点；个人消费上涨0.3个百分点。另外，根据近期日本的一系列报告显示，日本居民消费滑落，机动车生产萎缩，零售数据与进口下滑，出口呈现停滞。

本周四将迎来日本央行的再一次货币政策内容的陈述与新闻发布会，根据日本经济现状，本次会议很可能使得日本央行再次加大其宽松力度。安倍已向其经济部长Akira Amari传达了为实现5年内日本GDP增长20%的目标，本月份需实行计划性措施的指示。Akira同时表示GDP有望本季度有所增长。

昨日日元兑美元再次下滑，现汇率行于123.20附近。

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昨日全球乳制品价格再次下滑7.9%，其均价跌至2345美元/公吨，这是继10月20日与11月3日拍卖的第三次下滑。其中，全脂奶粉价格跌幅最大达11.0%， 其价格滑落至2148美元/公吨；脱脂奶粉价格下滑8.1%至1851美元/公吨。

据新西兰恒天然乳业的预期，全脂奶粉价格需要达3000美元/公吨才能够符合其向奶农奶粉收购价格4.60纽币/千克的预期。恒天然乳业下一次对于奶粉收购价格预测回顾将在12月份。乳品价格的持续下滑给新西兰奶农收入带来下行压力。据恒天然乳业估计，本年度乳品价格会经历更多的波动直至2016年上半年才会有所改善。

全球乳制品拍卖情况

数据来源：Globaldariy trade

全球乳制品价格拍卖指数10年变化情况

数据来源：Globaldairytrade

乳制品价格迟迟难以摆脱低迷主要受两方面原因影响：一是受市场需求不足影响。据新西兰先驱报报道，本次拍卖中，全脂奶粉需求尤其薄弱，在第四轮竞标中便结束拍卖，而经常情况来讲竞标次数会达到8到10次；二是受欧洲产奶量增长与压低成本价影响。8月份与9月份的价格大幅反弹是由于恒天然乳业减少其供给量，但由于欧洲地区并没有随之减产反而顺势增产以抢占市场，使得新西兰减产量被欧洲增产量所抵消而引发市场持续供过于求，价格难以复苏。

据新西兰恒天然乳业预期，其奶粉收购价格为4.60纽币/千克，而大部分奶农能够达到收支平衡的理想价格是在5.30纽币/千克。

在新西兰商品交易所NZX的期货市场上，在2015年至2016年的时段乳制品商品价格显示几无增长。AgriHQ分析师Susan Kilsby表示：“鉴于全脂奶粉价格在本次拍卖中下滑400美元/公吨的情况，直至2016年7月份其价格预期将仅将达到2400美元/公吨。

恒天然乳业本季的产量预期将下滑5%，有些分析师认为其减产量将会更大。
纽币/美元汇率昨日再度下跌30点，现行于0.6470附近。纽币可能会继续呈压下滑，有可能再次下探前低0.6240附近。


Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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今日国家统计局公布的中国10月份房价走势显示，中国27城新房价格环比上涨，38个城市同比上涨，加之十三 五计划中对于住宅产业转型升级的措施的研究报告出台，中国地产股腿长股市全盘上扬。

香港恒生指数随中国股市行情影响可能再次出现上行迹象，年内有望再次上探潜在阻力位置23350点附近，但由于美国加息预期中国整体经济增速放缓的现状影响，中长期看，恒生指数难以再次回到长期涨势趋势中，可能会在21860-24500之间的空间整理运行。

从香港恒生指数周线图上看，近几周形成潜在的下行通道形态，有望形成潜在的向上旗形向上突破的形态。上方的第一潜在的阻力位置仍然在旗形顶部高点附近23350附近。只有顺利突破此位置，才会继续上探。

而月线图上显示，恒生指数在8月份跌破长期的上升趋势线后仍然难以形成突破性上涨，在经历两个月的反弹行情后，目前在21860附近受到支持，如果此位置能够坚守住，则长期来看可能在黄金分割线38.2%与23.6%两天回档线中运行，这个潜在区间可能在21860-24500之间。


Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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今晨时间美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)10月份会议内容公布, 示意加息是否在12月份加息要依据对于经济形势的再次评估而定. 由于本次会议内容并没有如市场投资者所预期般鹰派的强硬，消息公布后， 美元高位回撤， 股市全线上扬.

本次会议内容是FOMC 10月28-29日货币政策会议内容的公开宣布, 在会议没有公开之前，10月份美国的非农业就业数据绝对好于预期的影响，使得投资者对于美联储的绝对鹰派态度-12月份加息-的预期十分肯定，自此美元再次大幅走强，10月份会议以来USD TWI 上涨2%。而本次会议内容并没有向绝大部分投资者所意想的那样强硬，使得投资者情绪与风险与回报比率关系发生变化，以至美元的高位回撤与股市的再次全面上扬。

以下内容为FOMC会议的结论之言，明确表示“美国联邦基金基准利率保持在现行的0%-0.25%的区间适中适宜劳动力市场与稳定物价的经济形势。对于决定是否在下次会议（12月份）实行加息，委员会将进行再次评估，评估标准将为是否美国经济形势对于最大化就业与2%的通货膨胀目标有足够信心的支持。”

“To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation… The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

另外，会议中还对于美国联邦基金短期基准利率与长期基准利率的实际利率水平做以讨论。指出，虽然短期利率水平自2008-2009年经济危机以来继续下滑，但基于现行基本面来考量，由于美国GDP并没有较大幅度的增长，说明其短期利率没有偏离制衡点的真实利率水平很多。而长期基准利率将会持恒保持在较低水平以保证就业市场最大化与2%通胀率的目标。美国加息进程将是一个系统化的财政政策, 是金融市场逐步恢复正常货币政策的稳定措施.
本次会议内容基本确定了美国经济已经稳步复苏, 加息势在必然，但时间上还有机会再作考量。对于前景远观，美国经济是在08年经济危机后超前美国、日本走出泥潭的国家，在美国即将计划实行货币政策逐步转由正常化的时刻， 欧洲与日本仍然在宽松的进程中，而中国在经济转点之际给世界经济再添风险与机遇。短期来看，美元强势仍然会持续一定的时间，有可能至少到2016年年初的时节。

Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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今日美国FOMC 10月份货币政策会议内容公布后，由于其内容并无投资者所预期之强硬，消息公布后美元出现高位回撤现象。而如原油、黄金等大宗商品等也出现了短期反弹的迹象。但由于美联储加息已是货币回位正常的轨道的必然步骤，大趋势美元仍会在一定时期内走强，相应的大宗商品类仍然会有一定下探的空间.

技术形态上看，黄金可能短期会反弹重新上探潜在的阻力位置1094附近，而继续走弱的下方潜在位置将有可能在1000整数位置附近。


昨日黄金日线图收近似十字星的短期底部形态， 配合今日基本面，黄金有可能短期回探上方潜在阻力1094美元附近。 而月线图中显示黄金的空头仍然较强，可能会再次冲底，以黄金延展线来看，下方的潜在位置恰是整数1000美元附近。

美国得克萨斯原油上方短期回探位置可能在43美元附近，而下方的继续潜在下探位置可能在37美元附近。

美原油日线图中连续多日形成短期筑底形态，很有可能向上反弹至重要价位43美元附近， 但同样长期图形月线图显示，仍然有可能继续向下测试前低37美元。

Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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自欧洲央行表示其将有在12月份进一步扩大宽松以来，欧股持续上行。特别受昨日FOMC美国鸽派加息言词的影响，欧洲各股再创本周内第四日连续上涨，主要股指均居于3个月高位。 其中，欧洲斯托克指数50本周涨幅达4.37%；德指上涨5.45%。

全球各大股指昨日走势

数据来源：布伦伯格

昨日10月份欧洲央行货币政策会议内容公布，确定了欧央行很可能由于其经济下行风险增加而继续或者扩大宽松的力度。行长德拉吉结论之言表示：“对于货币政策是否有效配合经济形势将需要在12月份再度进行评估…现行的对于600亿欧元的资产购买项目将持续到2016年9月份或者更长的时间，如果有必要将持续调整以配合中长期低于但接近其2%的通胀率目标。”并最后决定将其再融资利率、基本借贷利率与存款利率分别保持在0.05%，0.30%与-0.20%不变。

同时此次会议内容也显示了欧洲地区经济形势近日温和增长，内部需求弹性逐步恢复。但由于对于中国与新兴市场国家经济下行风险 始终是其对于外部影响的因素。

欧洲央行的明确了其持续宽松政策并有可能有必要进一步扩大宽松的预期。同时昨日美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策内容上表示加息势在必行但将循序渐进，略显鸽派的言词使得投资者脱去对于融资成本过高的担忧。
欧股有可能会在此时即迎来再度走“牛”新时机。技术形态上看欧洲斯托克指数50与德指30（DAX）均已有冲破上行重阻并再次冲高的迹象。

Disclaimer:  Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.