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发表于 2015-11-4 07:19
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本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2015-11-4 11:36 编辑
Sydney tipped to be major RMB trading hub
NSW Premier Mike Baird will have discussions about Sydney becoming one of the world's key offshore trading centres for the yuan during his visit to China this week.
NSW Premier Mike Baird will have discussions about Sydney becoming one of the world's key offshore trading centres for the yuan during his visit to China this week. Edwina Pickles
by Lisa Murray and Angus Grigg
Half of Australia's iron ore and coal exports could be priced in yuan within the next five years, making Sydney one of the world's key offshore trading centres for the Chinese currency, according to the author of a report commissioned by the NSW government.
Less than 1 per cent of Australian trade with China is currently settled in yuan, largely because commodity exports are mostly priced and traded in US dollars. However, Geoff Weir, who has worked at both the Australian Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia, believes that will change "dramatically" over the next five years.
"Within three to five years we will see commodities like iron ore and coal heavily traded in yuan," he told The Australian Financial Review, ahead of the release of the report on Wednesday, which will form the backbone of NSW Premier Mike Baird's discussions on the trading hub during his visit to China this week.
"In five years 50 per cent of the commodities trade could be in yuan," he said. While this is Mr Weir's own rough estimate and is not included in the report, he believes the ramp-up will be rapid once the yuan becomes more liquid and Chinese importers start offering Australian resources companies a price advantage to trade in Chinese currency.
The report, which was co-authored by Australian National University finance professor Kathy Walsh, says for Chinese importers "the incentive is clear".
For example, a Chinese steel producer that is paying for its commodity inputs in US dollars, but selling steel in yuan, is hit with the substantial cost of hedging against its currency exposure. That cost is generally higher in China than offshore. That steel company could offer a higher price to an Australian exporter to do the trade in yuan.
Hard not to follow
If the price advantage is less than it costs the steel company to hedge the foreign exchange exposure in China but more than the offshore cost of hedging for the commodity exporter, "both parties gain".
"Once one company goes down that path and gets a price advantage and improved market access, it will be very hard for the others not to follow," said Mr Weir, who previously worked as a hedge fund strategist for BT Funds Management, Moore Capital and JBWere. He is now a consultant.
China is already preparing for the shift away from US dollar pricing by building up liquid yuan-denominated futures contracts so that both importers and producers will be able to hedge their exposure to future commodity price movements.
Since the iron ore futures contract on the Dalian exchange started trading in October 2013, its trading volumes have risen by 294 per cent.
The report predicts the change in the way global commodities trade is financed will provide a significant boost to Sydney's importance as an offshore yuan trading hub and lead to an increase in transactional banking business for Australian firms.
It also says there is scope for Australian fund managers to tap into China's vast pool of savings. Australia is already a big recipient of direct investment flows and if Australian funds management firms can overcome the challenges of brand recognition and distribution access to the Chinese market, those flows might diversify into portfolio investment.
Extensive links
"Australia has considerable expertise in two asset classes of growing interest to Chinese institutional investors, namely global real estate and global infrastructure funds," the report says.
At the forefront of the Australian push into the Chinese funds management market is AMP Capital which went into partnership with local insurance company China Life in late 2013. It set up a joint-venture company, which is 15 per cent owned by AMP and has 70 billion yuan ($15.3 billion) under management.
There are now 19 offshore yuan trading centres but Mr Weir believes Sydney's hub could potentially be counted among the most successful because of the trade-related finance and funds management opportunities. Other centres aside from Hong Kong that are currently doing well include Singapore, which has extensive links with China and south-east Asia and Luxembourg, which is home to the European headquarters for some major Chinese banks.
Mr Weir said Australian policymakers need to provide greater tax certainty for alternative collective investment vehicles that can be used to sell funds management products into China and must also look at relaxing the tough capital requirements which relate to joint-venture investments. |
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