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BesteverCPA 发表于 2015-2-15 19:55 
算了,你先把中国的国情好好的补习一下再来说吧。
既然你喜欢讲国情,那咱就来点国情,而不是满大街连小贩都会唱的。。。拜托日本的老路,无非你想说的就是人口和资金。。咱先说人口把,基数是很大,但新生量却不大,基数里原本负担不起的,还是会负担不起,他们成不了新的demand...而新生代呢。。。手机打字太慢,还是给你摘要一段吧,估计没人会否认以下的中国国情。。。回去再上shadow banks..
In 1980 China's median (the age at which half the population is younger, half older) was 22. That is characteristic of a young developing country. It is now 34.5, more like a rich country and not very different from America's, which is 37. But China is ageing at an unprecedented pace. Because fewer children are being born as larger generations of adults are getting older, its median age will rise to 49 by 2050, nearly nine years more than America at that point. Some cities will be older still. The Shanghai Population and Family Planning Committee says that more than a third of the city's population will be over 60 by 2020.
This trend will have profound financial and social consequences. Most obviously, it means China will have a bulge of pensioners before it has developed the means of looking after them. Unlike the rest of the developed world, China will grow old before it gets rich. Currently, 8.2% of China's total population is over 65. The equivalent figure in America is 13%. By 2050, China's share will be 26%, higher than in America.
In the traditional Chinese family, children, especially sons, look after their parents (though this is now changing—see story on next page). But rapid ageing also means China faces what is called the “4-2-1 phenomenon”: each only child is responsible for two parents and four grandparents. Even with high savings rates, it seems unlikely that the younger generation will be able or willing to afford such a burden. So most elderly Chinese will be obliged to rely heavily on social-security pensions. |
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