他山之石可以攻玉： 我的买房攻略

molylory

等更新〜

marsmty

说的实在，赞一个

Elmoelmo

个人觉得楼花也不是不可买，只是要做好分析，太难了。而且很容易被那些卖楼花的agent忽悠。
投资应该是三个方面综合考虑：

CGT ＋ Negative Gearing ＋ Rental Income；

theforest

快点写啊，给加分！！！

youxuan1420

对不起大家，周末是亲子时间。明后天一定补上。

allenw

楼花风险高啊！

elin-lu

等更新。

life92

学习了

天涯浪客

给你看看人家华人地产同盟写的楼花分析，我认为是我看到的文章中写的最好的：

http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/f ... read&tid=819231

flyingf4u

I think the most advantage of off plan is that you can use less moeny to secure a property. Most off plan you only need to pay 10% or less to secure the contract, but for most of constructed house/apartment/unit, usually need to pay 20% deposit. Most of the people want to buy constructed properties but they don't have enough cash flow. For an investor, if he only gets100K, and have two options, one is to buy a constructed apartment with 100k deposit, the other is to buy two off plan apartments with 50k each, of course he would choose the second option. The reason is he use less cash flow to secure two investment properties.

In an realy investment market, sometimes cash flow is the most important factor, because sufficient cash flow=time, everyone knows time is the first important issue in an investment. When you save enough cash flow to buy a constructed property, the price must be higher, and you loose the most important thing(to invest in a right timing).

youxuan1420

第二篇： unit， apt， townhouse / villa

首先我要说明的是本文提到的unit是这样定义的：老房子（20年以上），小社区，没有任何facility。 那些近十几年盖的公寓房即使没有lift 或recreation facility也至少有security parking或者超过50户居民。这些房子在我看来和apt差别不大，strata太高。而这恰巧是apt和unit 的主要区别。说得极端一些，个人认为任何居住面积以外对空间的占用都是对投资的浪费。而apt把这种浪费运用到了极致。
Apt的劣势体现如下：
1，        apt的房价要比unit高出很多，资本增值的空间小了。
2，        投资房主不得不每个季度多付出至少两到三倍的strata费用来维护根本享受不到的东西，每年追加投入太大。
3，        租金的表现并没有比unit强出几倍有的甚至类似因为apt的房客多为年轻人，流动性大，租金收入不如unit稳定。

说实话，我最大的投资失败就是抄底入手了一个原买主settle不了的楼花。当时还以为捡了个便宜，可和其他物业一比较真的是表现最差的一个。每次想到这个房子，我都觉着顶着个雷，因为一旦有任何利空的消息，这类物业绝对是第一批死的。个人看来， 除了能亲自看一下实际的房子外apt比楼花强得有限。

买townhouse/villa 或是unit都比apt和楼花强。不过下面的一些数据也许可以告诉大家从投资的角度看unit和townhouse到底哪个更好一些。
•        2 brs townhouse A： 2003年买入价 400K ， 2013年卖出价595K， CG: 49%
•        2 brs unit A： 2003年买入价300K，2013卖出价480K， CG: 60%
•        3 brs townhouse B: 2003年买入价220K， 13年卖出价314K， CG: 43%
•        2 brs unit B: 03年买入价150K，13年卖出价245K， CG: 63%
•        3 brs townhouse C: 2003年买入价207K， 13年卖出价269K， CG:  30%
•        2 brs unit C: 03年买入价165K，13年卖出价214K， CG: 30%
注： townhouseA和unitA是同一区的，B和C以此类推。

很明显，如果刨除所有其他因素只是单纯地计算投入和回报，unit要好过townhouse。那么我们再简单看一看这些房子目前市场的租金（03年的数据不全所以没有列出来）：

Townhouse A: $460/W, unit A: $460/W
Townhouse B: $360/W, unit B: $280/w, townhouse是三房，unit是两房
Townhouse C: $310/w, unit: $270/w，townhouse是三房，unit是两房

哪一个更好应该是一目了然了吧。当然unit的租客的流动性比townhouse大，所以比交给中介的钱多一些另外unit的strata相对高一些。不过这些和CG比起来数额是可以忽略的。

最后我想说的是我可以保证数据的准确性，但毕竟这只是个人的经历所以不可避免的带有片面性，局限性和偶然性，大家有其他经历的也多说说，一起完善一下这个理论。

youxuan1420

其实这两篇关于楼花，apt和unit的理论在足迹上有很多大神都已经总结过了不是什么新鲜的东西。在下一篇我会试着加一些新鲜的原创的东西，请大家指点。

未完待续

youxuan1420

flyingf4u 发表于 2014-4-7 13:22
I think the most advantage of off plan is that you can use less moeny to secure a property. Most off ...

No offence, but I have seen too many “investors” who have similar perception as you. All your conclusion is based on the premise that off plan properties will have capital gain.  As I mentioned before, it is unlikely to get CG if you invest on off plan properties or significant less profit for investors at least. The theory you mentioned above, leveraging the cash to maximise the capital gain, doesn’t apply on off plan property.

What if the two off plan apartments are unsuccessful investment, which is more likely than not, the investor has to face the fact that there is no CG for at leaset 10 to 15 years and he has to double the input for unexpected high strata charges for the same period. Will the investor still appreciate the leverage theory? One constructed property is more reasonable and safter investment.

There is old saying: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

youxuan1420

天涯浪客 发表于 2014-4-7 13:15
给你看看人家华人地产同盟写的楼花分析，我认为是我看到的文章中写的最好的：

http://www.oursteps.com.au ...

文章本身写的不错，但作者居然是华人地产联盟？估计最后照片里的百分百成交是根本目的。

天涯浪客

youxuan1420 发表于 2014-4-7 14:55
文章本身写的不错，但作者居然是华人地产联盟？估计最后照片里的百分百成交是根本目的。
...

取其精华，弃其糟粕。

lubber

nice

仁者无敌

楼花值得买的前提是房价一定会涨
那么房价是不是一定会涨呢？

flyingf4u

youxuan1420 发表于 2014-4-7 14:35
No offence, but I have seen too many “investors” who have similar perception as you. All your co ...

Thank you for your comment, I think you also made the same "mistake" as me, coz you assume all constructed properties will always make some CG as you conclude all off plan will make no CG as well.

As an investor, it is your own responsibility to anlysis the CG potential of your property you are buying, either constructed or off plan. You can't catagorize all off plan as" no CG properties", neither you can't catagorize all constructed properties as"CG properties".

But the cash flow advantage of off plan is so obvious compared with those constructed ones.

youxuan1420

flyingf4u 发表于 2014-4-7 15:08
Thank you for your comment, I think you also made the same "mistake" as me, coz you assume all con ...

1, I didn’t assume that “constructed properties will always make some CG”. I would appreciate if you could point out the sentence in my post that led you to this conclusion. All I try to say is off plans are more dangerous and risky for investors comparing with constructed properties.

2, it is true and important for investor to investigate and analyse before make any investment. And it is exact the reason I don’t suggest off plan because there are too many uncertainties such as timeframe of settlement, floor plan, interest rate etc. It is almost impossible for individual investor to make a reasonable risk analysis before invest on off plans.

3, based on your first comment, it seems that the advantage to you is an opportunity that allow you to make full use of limited resource to leverage the potential gain, even it comes with huge risk (the risk is derived from uncertainties). if I am correct, go for off plan, as you are the 3rd type of people in my previous post and I shall wish you good luck.

PS：bet all your money on Arsenal to win premier league. You have similar chance as off plan but 20 times more potential gain

qingqin

感谢分享

safeflight

不明觉厉

flyingf4u

youxuan1420 发表于 2014-4-7 16:11
1, I didn’t assume that “constructed properties will always make some CG”. I would appreciate i ...

且看且震惊。

wu_zhimin

nsourire

youxuan1420 发表于 2014-4-7 14:01
其实这两篇关于楼花，apt和unit的理论在足迹上有很多大神都已经总结过了不是什么新鲜的东西。在下一篇我会 ...

等下文！

dogsfamily

感谢楼主提点，对楼花的感念还挺楼在很早以前。  

POU

youxuan1420 发表于 2014-4-7 14:01
第二篇： unit， apt， townhouse / villa

首先我要说明的是本文提到的unit是这样定义的：老房子（20年以 ...

这是同学你买过的房子？怎么这么便宜

youxuan1420

POU 发表于 2014-4-8 22:55
这是同学你买过的房子？怎么这么便宜

购入时间和地点是关键。类似的房子在悉尼仍然有。

lvr

youxuan1420 发表于 2014-4-7 14:01
第二篇： unit， apt， townhouse / villa

首先我要说明的是本文提到的unit是这样定义的：老房子（20年以 ...

这些例子都是2003年买入，2013年卖出。03年和13年应该是房市的两个高点。如果再早点儿或再晚点儿买，利润会更大。

youxuan1420

lvr 发表于 2014-4-9 10:20
这些例子都是2003年买入，2013年卖出。03年和13年应该是房市的两个高点。如果再早点儿或再晚点儿买，利润 ...

看来你也经历过02-03年的疯狂房市。那时候既没有经验也没有理智，有的错误要用十几年来弥补。
PS：拿来做例子的房子不全是自己的房子。

厉害

谢谢楼主分享。
我认为不论是哪种投资，都是case by case的，投资楼花未必就是高风险低收益的。
我了解的一个投资楼花的实例：入手不到1年（从去年5月settlement算起）就已经涨了10%，100%贷款（使用了另一房子的equity）。享受了昆州政府1万澳币的新房补贴。settle之前2天就已经租出去了（开发商同意的）。租金>贷款利息repayment。负扣税每年节税$5000。整体算下来从第一天就是positive cash flow。当然这些是综合因素的结果，投资房子不是盯着CG这一点就可以做决定的，有利的因素越多，风险就越小。