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很有趣的bubble debate
Warnings of overvaluation
In 2003, the IMF's 'World Economic Outlook' warned that "housing bubbles in Australia, England, Ireland and the United States" would "burst".
In April 2008, the IMF again stated that Australia's property market was overvalued and close to 25% higher than could be explained by changes in underlying fundamentals. Other analysts argued that the rise in property prices was explained by peculiarities of the tax system.
In April 2010, The Economist house price indicators estimated Australian house prices were the most overpriced in the world, at 56.1% overpriced (against long-run average of price to rents ratio).
According to Edward Chancellor, a US-based investment strategist and financial author, Australia is "in the midst of an unsustainable housing bubble that could burst at any time" and "house prices are more than 50 per cent above their fair value -- a once in 40-year event."
 A counter view was expressed by a senior economist with the Commonwealth Bank, who stated that Australia did not have the high unemployment levels of the US or UK and that there was "an extremely low" rate of late debt payments. He also noted that Australia's high population growth was likely to lead to "an undersupply of dwellings in the next few years, not an oversupply."
Equally, Investment Bank Goldman Sachs (GS) reported in August 2010 that "Australian housing is not in a speculative bubble but could be up to 35 per cent overvalued," explaining that there is a "very big difference between a speculative bubble and a period of overvaluation."
In November 2010, The Weekend Australian reported that "Treasury officials preparing the so-called Red Book of briefs for the incoming government were as divided as private sector economists about the strength of the property market."
In December 2010, an MLC investments strategist observed that "residential property looks absolutely obscenely overvalued and seems to offer very, very poor investment prospects."
In March 2011, Morgan Stanley global strategist Gerard Minack said that "we've had 20 years where the Australian consumers have been willing to borrow more to buy an asset that they believe always goes up in value. The classic sign of an asset bubble." and that "home prices are 30 to 40 per cent above fair value."
In October 2009, it appeared that the pricing of homes was being inflated by actions taken in October 2008 aimed at addressing the fallout from the global financial crisis.[citation needed] Housing was identified as an asset class worth shoring up against the type of de-leveraging seen in the stock market.
The government increased assistance given to first home buyers as part of its 'Economic Stimulus Strategy',. A substantial reduction of RBA interest rates also played a part in maintaining prices.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble |
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楼主:goodsydney
发表于 2013-9-12 08:39
太有才了
