外汇讨论贴

黑山老妖

今天澳元又创新高。

飞行

18年新高...........

我爱猫

唉唉唉。。偶D美金。。。。

黑山老妖

美金算是完蛋了。

oliverzeno

Dollar is still strong, the weak one is Jpy bro...

黑山老妖

Almost 85c US now...

zhangcyer

美元可能会涨 了，有利好消息阿

cn_yy

澳币85了，真的太太太太强了

oliverzeno

原帖由 cn_yy 于 2007-6-26 21:44 发表
澳币85了，真的太太太太强了

昨夜就已经Print了1下在85之上了，呵呵。。

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Option Bar昨夜拿掉了，今天破85就更easy了的说；

等待NZD本周的数据，若有加息的Effect Working,敬请狂长Aud/Nzd！

黑山老妖

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2007-6-26 22:55 发表


昨夜就已经Print了1下在85之上了，呵呵。。

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Option Bar昨夜拿掉了，今天破85就更easy了的说；

等待NZD本周的数据，若有加息的Ef ...

谢谢XD提醒

iceeyes2000

跌下0.84了

语阁

好啊，继续跌，跌到6一下，最好

黑山老妖

原帖由 语阁 于 2007-6-27 19:30 发表
好啊，继续跌，跌到6一下，最好

这样不好啊。跌得太厉害了我们这儿的物价就不对了。。。通货膨胀可不好玩啊。

西边雨

涨上去了也没看到物价下跌~~：（

＂魸魸°

原帖由 西边雨 于 2007-6-27 22:48 发表
涨上去了也没看到物价下跌~~：（

恩..

黑山老妖

原帖由 西边雨 于 2007-6-27 22:48 发表
涨上去了也没看到物价下跌~~：（

据说汽油价格跌了微不足道的1c左右就是因为澳元高。。。

lauyh

唉 如果我有时空穿梭机的话 那该多好呀！！！learing。。。。

lauyh

我准备在8520的时候空aud，不知各位有何高见？

alex1031

JULY 04  欧央行理事暗示可能干预汇市  

       欧央行执委会委员斯马吉3日表示，欧元区较美国或日本来说更能影响外汇市场，是更有效率的。　　  

　　综合外电7月3日报道，欧央行（ECB）执委会委员斯马吉（Lorenzo Bini Smaghi）3日表示，欧元区较美国或日本来说更能影响外汇市场。　　  

　　斯马吉称，欧元区现有的结构在其看来是更有效率的一个。　　  

　　斯马吉此言论之前，法国和意大利政治家抱怨欧元的强劲，兑日元一度达到近几周来的高点，兑美元仍为历时高点位。　　  

　　他表示，对外汇市场的任何官方干预必须与美国和日本当局呼应才能进行。欧央行过去有过干预措施。在2000年秋季，在咨询了美国和日本官员之后，欧央行为提升欧元采取了主动措施。　　  

　　斯马吉称，要使外汇市场干预有效果，就必须同国内的政策行动相一致，必须与其他主要货币国家的官员一同协作，且需向市场进行解释。　　  

　　他称，2000年的干预表明，欧元区在市场中反应快速。这次干预有欧元集团和欧央行，以及美国和日本当局的适当参与。　　  

　　欧元集团代表着欧元区成员国政府，而欧央行是独立的。一些政治家包括法国总统萨科齐（Nicolas Sarkozy）都已要求欧元集团应在外汇政策方面有更多的话语权。　　  

　　但斯马吉称，赋予欧央行进行外汇干预的责任可能是确保外汇干预有效的最好办法。　　  
　　有效的干预总是要求与货币当局保持紧密的合作。　　  

　　斯马吉表示，虽然已被允许建议整体方向，但欧元集团并未提出任何外汇政策。但他又表示，欧元区官员在就适宜的外汇政策提出自己的观点时，他们往往倾向于弱化欧元区和欧盟机构的集体建议，因为一致性需要同国际贸易伙伴来协商达成。　　  

　　他表示，若干预措施同国内货币政策有冲突，那这种外汇干预不可能成功影响汇率。欧央行的主要目标是欧元区的物价稳定，外汇政策不应损害这个目标。欧元在贸易和作为储备货币的国际作用，不应对欧元区的货币政策实施有所影响。

alex1031

用美元空欧元，美元不就是涨了吗？

alex1031

　　The US jobs report delivered a payrolls figure in line with expectations at 133K, while the upward revisions of the prior two months and the unchanged unemployment rate remaining at 4.5％ was helpful in temporarily stabilizing the dollar's decline.

　　Nonetheless, the prolonged losses of manufacturing jobs for the 14th consecutive month and the 24K loss in retail jobs suggest that the recent improvement in manufacturing surveys is unsubstantiated by the continued loss in those jobs, while renewed losses in retail employment raise the red flag in a sector that is widely relied on to carry the US Q2 recovery. Indeed, Friday's release of June retail sales may come in negative, showing a decline of 0.1-02％ after a 1.4％ rise in May and 0.1％ decline in April.

　　The week's vital events will kick off on Tuesday, with the Bank of Canada's expected interest rate hike （9 am EST） and a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke on inflation （1pm EST） where he will likely shed more details on the importance of headline inflation amid the persistent climb in food and energy prices.

　　Due Thursday is the US trade report, and on Friday is US retail sales, and Univ of Michigan sentiment survey.

　　Euro's resilience in face of US payrolls suggests new record is imminent

　　The euro's sharp rebound in the aftermath of its brief decline following Friday's US payrolls' release not reflects increased confidence in the single currency amid FX traders but also a sign of the mixed picture conveyed in the jobs report. We had warned last week that US payrolls will have to be gauged partly through manufacturing and retail jobs, especially as these sectors do not undergo the same volatility seen in hospitality, education and government jobs.

　　EURUSD remains well within the reach of new record highs, especially as the lack of market-moving US data may extend gains in US equities, allowing prolonged risk appetite to further boost the euro. Tuesday's inflation speech from Bernanke may place a dent on the markets and on the carry trades, including the single currency.

　　EURUSD support seen holding at 1.3610, followed by 1.3575-80. Near-term target holding at 1.3640, but further moves seen capped at 1.3655-60.

　　USDJPY nears tunaround point

　　The return of risk appetite courtesy of Friday's US payrolls meeting expectations has triggered the usual plays of broad yen selling in favor of rising GBP, AUD, equities and gold. Shorting the yen ahead of this week's BoJ decision and monthly report is not recommended, especially as USDJPY nears considerable resistance at 124.

　　Having said, we do not rule out further gains in USDJPY towards 123.85 in the event that the BoJ issues no signs of an upgrade in its outlook, especially amid continued declines in unemployment and recovery of household spending. And even in the case of renewed yen declines, we expect fresh rumblings about carry trades and Japanese officials reiterating their cautiousness with the speed of the yen's decline as was the case two weeks ago.

　　Interim support stands at 123.20, followed by 123.00. Upside is capped 123.65, a breach of which will be partly dependent on the gains in US equities. A close above 1,535 in the S&P500 is seen instrumental in pushing up the pair towards 123.85.

　　Sterling turns to US weakness

　　Sterling shurgged a weaker than expected June PPI report, showing a 0.6％ decline m/m but a 2.1％ increase y/y. We do not rule out further gains in sterling towards the 2.0160s from the currenct 2.0140s. key pressurre seen standing at 2.0170. Traders will watch for any signs whether the Bank of England's tightening campaign has reached the end. The most important clue will not emegre until next week's minutes. Tuesday's trade figures will impact sterling （expected deficit at stg 6.6 bln from stg 6.3 bln）, but it is the US data that that will play the key role this week on the pair. Support stands at 2.0110. （Ashraf Laidi/CMC Markets）

alex1031

BOC 即时汇价   10:35:50 2007-07-10

币种 汇买价 汇卖价 钞买价 钞卖价 开盘价 最高价 最低价 昨收 涨跌幅
美元/日元 123.01 123.41 123.01 123.41 123.38 123.44 123.18 123.36 -0.1215%
欧元/美元 1.3599 1.3631 1.3599 1.3631 1.3621 1.3633 1.3615 1.3621 -0.0440%
英镑/美元 2.0133 2.0173 2.0133 2.0173 2.0151 2.0162 2.0142 2.0154 -0.0049%
澳大利亚元/美元 0.8582 0.8612 0.8582 0.8612 0.8598 0.8609 0.8590 0.8593 0.0465%
美元/港币 7.8136 7.8176 7.8136 7.8176 7.8162 7.8166 7.8151 7.8161 -0.0063%
美元/瑞士法郎 1.2150 1.2190 1.2150 1.2190 1.2168 1.2172 1.2158 1.2168 0.0164%
美元/新加坡元 1.5154 1.5194 1.5154 1.5194 1.5197 1.5204 1.5163 1.5198 -0.1579%
美元/挪威克朗 5.7988 5.8388 5.7988 5.8388 5.8196 5.8210 5.8097 5.8111 0.1325%
美元/加拿大元 1.0477 1.0517 1.0477 1.0517 1.0495 1.0507 1.0486 1.0482 0.1431%
英镑/港币 15.7320 15.7696 15.7320 15.7696 15.7504 15.7584 15.7428 15.7526 -0.0114%
英镑/瑞士法郎 2.4465 2.4587 2.4465 2.4587 2.4520 2.4538 2.4504 2.4523 0.0122%
英镑/日元 247.75 248.87 247.75 248.87 248.62 248.86 248.24 248.62 0.0480%
英镑/加拿大元 2.1092 2.1218 2.1092 2.1218 2.1148 2.1180 2.1132 2.1124 0.1467%
英镑/澳大利亚元 2.3332 2.3552 2.3332 2.3552 2.3436 2.3454 2.3406 2.3454 -0.0511%
港币/日元 15.73 15.79 15.73 15.79 15.79 15.79 15.76 15.78 -0.1267%
瑞士法郎/港币 6.4132 6.4307 6.4132 6.4307 6.4235 6.4288 6.4211 6.4235 -0.0249%
瑞士法郎/日元 100.99 101.49 100.99 101.49 101.40 101.48 101.23 101.38 -0.1380%
瑞士法郎/加拿大元 0.8596 0.8654 0.8596 0.8654 0.8625 0.8638 0.8621 0.8614 0.1276%
加拿大元/港币 7.4379 7.4533 7.4379 7.4533 7.4475 7.4538 7.4387 7.4567 -0.1488%
加拿大元/日元 117.15 117.61 117.15 117.61 117.56 117.68 117.26 117.69 0.1015%
澳大利亚元/港币 6.7063 6.7319 6.7063 6.7319 6.7204 6.7285 6.7141 6.7164 0.0402%
澳大利亚元/瑞士法郎 1.0430 1.0496 1.0430 1.0496 1.0462 1.0474 1.0454 1.0456 0.0669%
澳大利亚元/日元 105.63 106.21 105.63 106.21 106.08 106.21 105.89 106.00 -0.0754%
澳大利亚元/加拿大元 0.8989 0.9059 0.8989 0.9059 0.9024 0.9039 0.9014 0.9007 0.1887%
欧元/英镑 0.6737 0.6775 0.6737 0.6775 0.6759 0.6766 0.6753 0.6759 -0.0443%
欧元/港币 10.6264 10.6554 10.6264 10.6554 10.6464 10.6560 10.6408 10.6471 -0.0582%
欧元/瑞士法郎 1.6525 1.6613 1.6525 1.6613 1.6574 1.6581 1.6565 1.6575 -0.0361%
欧元/日元 167.35 168.15 167.35 168.15 168.06 168.18 167.73 168.04 0.0830%
欧元/加拿大元 1.4247 1.4337 1.4247 1.4337 1.4295 1.4313 1.4285 1.4278 0.0980%
欧元/澳大利亚元 1.5761 1.5913 1.5761 1.5913 1.5842 1.5856 1.5824 1.5851 -0.0883%
中银美元指数/美元 80.7099 81.0300 80.7099 81.0300 80.8800 80.9099 80.8200 80.8699 0.0000%
本币金/人民币 160.4700 161.2700 160.4700 161.2700 161.4800 161.6400 160.7699 161.4899 -0.1179%
美元金/美元 658.1500 661.1500 658.1500 661.1500 660.6000 660.8000 659.2500 660.6500 -0.0213%
:si15

audream

澳元涨到.87了。0.89指日可待。
呵呵，没人放话了，估计都在埋头炒汇吧。

休

到8763了!这样涨法会搞到很多小户破产.

黑山老妖

没关系了。反正都是死猪不怕开水烫了。死一点也是死。没差了。

oliverzeno

还有没有短AUD的？

哈哈。。

zhangcyer

美元是在是太弱了
好像今天还有什么指标出来
不知会怎么样啊

黑山老妖

人民币兑美元创下今年的第52个新高。

oliverzeno

Hv a look at GBP and AUD, plus CAD...

sujiea

The Future Of The U.S. Dollar.
Posted on 05/30/2007 18:40:38 | Link | Post Comment
Had an interesting conversation with The Dealer out of Hong Kong last night. We were both glued to our screens waiting to see what would happen with the Shanghai equities markets. I like chatting with this guy. He never tells me market theories, but he will tell me what players are doing. Size, timing, targets and such. It's incredibly interesting information in its own right, regardless of my own market take. He asked what I really felt about economies around the world, and how the U.S. dollar will play out.

Here are my long-term thoughts on the U.S. dollar going forward:

First, the economy continues to surprise to the upside here in the U.S. The unemployment rate is still very strong, and with last week's durables coming in with a healthy revised increase for March, I'm thinking that the GDP release will push to the upside.

There's one missing ingredient with the U.S. economy so far, and that's consumer spending. Incomes are increasing rapidly. But, the spending that should be associated with that hasn't shown up yet. I think that's a matter of time, because I don't see any reason for the U.S. consumers to all of a sudden change their savings habits. That should continue to support the U.S. economy. We just had two reports of confidence come in healthy. Confident consumers translates into confident shoppers. That translates into the missing ingredient.

Interest rates are still relatively low when looked at historically. The 10-year is still below the 5.000% level, but that could go by the end of summer, however. There's still plenty of liquidity around to encourage growth. As for the decline in the real estate market, that's kind of a non-event up to now, and I don't see any reason why the economy could spin out of control from one sector that was over-inflated.

In all, I see a lot of reasons to buy the U.S. economy, and therefore the U.S. dollar.

But, to play the dollar, you have to compare it against its counterparts.

The U.S. dollar was the JPY carry of the early 2000's... you know, when our own interest rates were down to nothing? The greenback took it on the chin for several months. Now, interest rates are some of the highest in the world. The reasons to sell the greenback like a used hooker are gone. Not enough profit potential to push large market players to really go hard against it.

To have a take on the U.S. greenback, you also have to have a take against other currencies. I've read blogs from beginner traders where they focus only on one currency in order to learn the finer elements. That's like looking at a pinky and saying the entire body is healthy. You take that approach, I'll go over to your place and eat your lunch right at your desk.

Looking at the U.S. dollar gets to be a little tricky.

I think the reason to push the EUR and GBP higher are gone. We're basically at parity with rationale in these currencies. There's an edge vs. EUR for now. But, it's not a big one, and I don't see any reason for it to narrow. If the U.S. economy continues to push higher, along with confidence, then we're going to see all of the long-term sellers hitting the "take profit" buttons soon. That will boost the U.S. dollar off of its all-time low ranges. I don't know that we'll go too far from these levels. But, some profit taking is just around the corner.

At the same time, I see the renewed interest in the U.S. dollar pushing USD/JPY higher. This will make for an interesting balancing act with the carry trade. It'll go just about nowhere as USD/JPY goes higher and USD/vs. goes lower. As long as there's no reason to sell profitable trades, then the carry should continue. But, what if the Bank of Japan gets even more aggressive? We are pretty certain that there's an interest rate increase hitting the wires in August, after the elections. But, beyond that, no real certainty. If the BoJ keeps pounding their chests, the USD/JPY could sell off. That could push the carry lower across the board, pushing the USD higher vs EVERYTHING. That's the one catalyst that I'll be watching at the end of the summer. Until then, I'm all systems go with the carry.

In all, I like the USD, and have been a big buyer over the course of the last few weeks. It's worked like a champ. I'm going to continue with that approach going forward looking for big moves. I normally don't play for bigger moves. But, I think we've got a hot summer in store for us. And the headline may very well be the USD.