Trading options -- too good to be true？

Momotaba

首先不知道是不是应该把贴发在这儿，如果不是的话请斑竹放到正确的板块。谢谢了！

最近我的一个比较要好的鬼佬同事介绍给我一个trading options 的 seminar/training courses （我不知道options应该翻译成什么）。
他本人去学了是个历时四个月的一个program。学费4950刀。据说这个课程主要教你一些stratgies to exit the market （我不是太懂这个，可能说的不专业）

而且据他们宣传，如果你学了之后开始trade options，保守的话估计一个月能赚1000刀。我这个鬼佬同事的启动资金是5000刀。（据他说他确实赚了钱，差不多有1000刀）

我个人是没做过trading options，也没听说过以前，所以我想借万能的足迹问一下各位有这方面经验的tx：

1. trading options 难吗？
2. 这个program 有必要参加吗？ （貌似很贵的）

PS 提供training的公司叫traders circle,不知道有没有tx和他们打过交道。

【论坛不允许放商业用途的链接， 网站链接我给编辑了/ DS】

希望大家给些意见或建议，先谢了！！！

[ 本帖最后由 Momotaba 于 2012-2-24 23:22 编辑 ]

Devil_Star

一开始玩option很爽的， 很快都要连本带利还。 这就是我的见闻。
许多公司就是靠教option赚大钱的， 但自己有没从市场赚钱， 没人知道。
手上的视频教程多的是， 我是不会花5千刀去做冤大头。

flame21

其实option   future    index    forex    stocks CFD等等，都有类似的性质，都是有杠杆的。
如果没有一个很好的交易系统和资金管理策略，会输得很惨，遮羞布都能输掉让你光屁股。

如果有资金管理，最多是细水长流慢慢被市场和broker吸干而已，还不至于一夜之间倾家荡产。

这些公司，都是教你一些基本的东西，其实普遍收费过高。如果有人懂的愿意带你一下，很容易就入门。当然懂怎么回事，距离“稳定盈利”还十万八千里呢。

除非你钱很多，否则还是按兵不动，看你那同事过半年后（其实最好是一年）是否还能如此稳定盈利。

最近一家之前很著名的澳洲教育公司，才突然倒闭了。你说光是教育，上个课，大多情况是学员半桶水自己亏钱，他这公司怎么就倒闭了呢？——听说这公司教育的同时还鼓励学员交钱给他操作，估计是后来输得太惨。

Poweregg

Momotaba自己都说 too good to be true 了

最简单的想，真的肯定赚钱，为什么还开培训班，真有雷锋啊

100%赚，那群人为啥不把自己的房子抵押了来做啊：）

auway

楼上正解，如果真能像说的那样，他有空教你？

flyfish668

如果你手上有正股，用option做对冲，是不错的选择

Momotaba

今日无分可加，先谢谢了，明日补上。

不过您太专业了，我没看懂您的意思。
什么是对冲，那叫正股？

flyfish668

原帖由 Momotaba 于 2012-2-24 23:58 发表
今日无分可加，先谢谢了，明日补上。

不过您太专业了，我没看懂您的意思。
什么是对冲，那叫正股？

就是你持有股票，但你觉得股票要跌，你可以买入put option，对冲下跌的风险。

Poweregg

原帖由 Momotaba 于 24/2/2012 22:58 发表
今日无分可加，先谢谢了，明日补上。

不过您太专业了，我没看懂您的意思。
什么是对冲，那叫正股？

正好还剩下3分，帮你给他加了

对冲，我觉得也就是降低风险而已

赌场玩轮转，
押了2块钱红的，突然觉得黄的也有机会赢，就补押1块
万一是黄的，我损失就小些
可是万一是红的，我赚的也少了

auway

原帖由 Poweregg 于 2012-2-25 00:21 发表


正好还剩下3分，帮你给他加了

对冲，我觉得也就是降低风险而已

赌场玩轮转，
押了2块钱红的，突然觉得黄的也有机会赢，就补押1块
万一是黄的，我损失就小些
可是万一是红的，我赚的也少了

直接压一块钱红的不就得了...

Momotaba

谢谢解释，又长知识了。白条一张，这个周末把分给你加上。

Momotaba

兄弟谢谢加分，看你这路数，怎么感觉你是在赌场帮人看门，倒垃圾，换灯泡啊？开个玩笑，别见怪。比喻很生动！

flyfish668

原帖由 Poweregg 于 2012-2-25 00:21 发表


正好还剩下3分，帮你给他加了

对冲，我觉得也就是降低风险而已

赌场玩轮转，
押了2块钱红的，突然觉得黄的也有机会赢，就补押1块
万一是黄的，我损失就小些
可是万一是红的，我赚的也少了

有股票，买option同单纯只是炒作option，是不一样的。
股票还有利息。

Poweregg

原帖由 flyfish668 于 24/2/2012 23:36 发表


有股票，买option同单纯只是炒作option，是不一样的。
股票还有利息。

兄弟，偶这不是比喻嘛
要浅显易懂阿

Poweregg

原帖由 Momotaba 于 24/2/2012 23:27 发表
兄弟谢谢加分，看你这路数，怎么感觉你是在赌场帮人看门，倒垃圾，换灯泡啊？开个玩笑，别见怪。比喻很生动！

看门，倒垃圾，换灯泡 都做

赌场不去好多年

Momotaba

换灯泡那就是电工啊，高级蓝领啊！

传说中好的电工能拿10万一年，足迹平均工资的一半啊，兄弟也是有米之人啊！

xtrader

Option is 期权. Usually it associates with stock which is stock option, 股票期权. It could associate with index and commodities as well.

Option trading could be very simple, just long call or long put. It could be use to hedge a stock. It can composite with different strike prices, expiry date and ratio for spread trading. It could very low risk (even lower than trading normal share) to very high risk. The funny thing is that the invention of option (or futures) trading is to minimize the investment risk. It (they) becomes a high risk trading vehicle because lots of people mis-use it.

Making $1000 per month? It is absolutely possible. Just depends on how much you start with. Start with $5000, it is highly NOT likely to make $1000 every month. Start with $100,000 which is 1% return per month, it is a highly achieveable. For a professional option trader, 1-3% per month is quite easy to achieve.

原帖由 Momotaba 于 2012-2-24 20:21 发表
首先不知道是不是应该把贴发在这儿，如果不是的话请斑竹放到正确的板块。谢谢了！

最近我的一个比较要好的鬼佬同事介绍给我一个trading options 的 seminar/training courses （我不知道options应该翻译成什么）。
他本人去 ...

xtrader

Hedging could be more sophisticated.

I just use a simple example, those premium, time value are not consider here.

Say, start with $10K to buy a $100 stock, you will get
$10K / $100 = 100 shares

Later, the price drop to $50, exercise the put and get back $10K and buy again, but this time will get
$10K / $50 = 200 shares

Later, the price drop to $25, exercies the put again and get back $10K and buy again, this time will get
$10K / $25 = 400 shares

Later, if the price return to $50, then it will worth
400 shares x $50 = $20K which is 100% return even the price has dropped 50% since start.

原帖由 auway 于 2012-2-24 23:23 发表



直接压一块钱红的不就得了...

anvil

Option定价公式之一的black scholes, black和scholes都凭这个拿到诺贝尔奖，option多复杂可见一斑，真要研究，速成班远不够。巴菲特就是option writing的高手。

forestlevy

Options are traded as their market value. How can you generate definite profit without any risk associated?

xtrader

It is hard to justify just base on the price because don't know what they teach and what's your expectation. If you have a $5M portfolio, and you use 5K to learn how to use option to hedge and generate additional income. It definitely worth it. If you want to pay 5K to learn to get rich with option trading, it is not worth it.

Naked call is a high risk strategy in option trading. Not recommended any one. But naked put is a common strategy being used by professional.

原帖由 海边 于 2012-2-27 17:19 发表
第一,不值得花五千多去学.
第二,估计就是呼悠你用他们的所谓算法卖出价外的期权裸单,赌期权最终不被执行而赚期权卖出费,要是那样千万别干,因为那样做盈利有限而亏损风险无限!只要碰上一次超历史波动,随时杨千万变杨白劳!

xtrader

BS model is just "try" to calculate the "fair value". But in the formula, the I.V. is a human estimated value. I think which means there is NO fair value.

原帖由 anvil 于 2012-2-27 19:07 发表
Option定价公式之一的black scholes, black和scholes都凭这个拿到诺贝尔奖，option多复杂可见一斑，真要研究，速成班远不够。巴菲特就是option writing的高手。

Momotaba

谢谢xtrader, forestlevy，anvil 和海边tx的回复。

xtrader

It always has risk associate in trading, it does not matter which product or what strategy. If you focus on 1 trade a month, pretty sure it will have lost month. If you focus on trading with a portfolio, it still have chance to have lost month, but the chance is much smaller.

原帖由 forestlevy 于 2012-2-27 19:09 发表
Options are traded as their market value. How can you generate definite profit without any risk associated?

Poweregg

原帖由 Momotaba 于 26/2/2012 10:23 发表
换灯泡那就是电工啊，高级蓝领啊！

传说中好的电工能拿10万一年，足迹平均工资的一半啊，兄弟也是有米之人啊！

大哥，偶只换灯泡啊，别的都留给电工干，虽然transformer，dimmer之类都是小case
（稍微能自豪一下的是，有人灯的socket出问题了，电工派来的学徒没搞定，说要order parts，可是人家急着用，偶帮他搞定了 ）

说到电工的收入，有个来我们这里干活的电工经常和我哭诉，说近几年生意不好做了，每年才15-18W，说他当年生意最好那年28W

Poweregg

原帖由 xtrader 于 27/2/2012 15:58 发表
Hedging could be more sophisticated.

I just use a simple example, those premium, time value are not consider here.

Say, start with $10K to buy a $100 stock, you will get
$10K / $100 = 100 shares

...

拜一下，偶也学习一下

vcdenton

I came across an 'investment education' company called 21st century something,
They claim that u make like 4 thousand/ month trading Put option to help offset negative cashew property portfolio .………

lobsters

骗学费的，这些金融衍生品都是钱生钱，用杠杆，风险很大。真要赚钱那么容易还有时间教你？美国的银行会倒闭？

xtrader

No doubt it is an education company.

The claimed strategy is called Naked Put. Can it make 4K per mth? Absolutely yes, but depends on the capital. For sure it is not start with 10K and make 4K per mth.

Is it a good strategy? Yes, if it meets your trading objective and long term prospective. No, if you are gambling.

原帖由 vcdenton 于 2012-5-14 20:05 发表
I came across an 'investment education' company called 21st century something,
They claim that u make like 4 thousand/ month trading Put option to help offset negative cashew property portfolio .………

xtrader

Any business is using money to make money. Lots of people start a business with the home equity. It is using leverage. I sure you may hear stories about loss their businesses, loss their properties or other assets.  In the business world, are there any one willing to teach you how to build a success business and make millions? No many for sure. There are lots of business coach in the market, you could pay to learn.

Trading (no matter shares or derivatives) is the same. For those are very serious about trading, it is a business. ATO actually classify trading is a business. Trading derivatives is higher risk? My answer is No.

It is not easy, otherwise everyone could make money and who will be losing? Same for a business, does it easy to build a multimillion $$$ business?

原帖由 lobsters 于 2012-5-14 21:01 发表
骗学费的，这些金融衍生品都是钱生钱，用杠杆，风险很大。真要赚钱那么容易还有时间教你？美国的银行会倒闭？