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[行情讨论] 40年房价的变化--相对工资房子变得越来越贵了 [复制链接]

发表于 2014-11-10 13:42 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 simond 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 simond 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
Property prices keep rising and housing is becoming ore unaffordable scream the headlines – especially in Sydney.

According to an article in Domain CEO of the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) Amanda Lynch says thathousing-affordability issues have actually been brewing in Australia for quite some time.
Factors at playsave-money-house

    “Although the level of affordability can vary cyclically, house-price and household-income data suggest that there has been an underlying structural affordability problem in Australia over the past half-century.

    From 1960 to 2006, real house prices increased at an average of 2.7 per cent per annum, ahead of a 1.9 per cent per annum growth per household real income,” Lynch says.

According to Lynch, myriad factors have affected the housing system and property prices in the last 50 years.

These include an undersupply of housing, land-development processes and policies, the cost of construction and property-related taxes, as well as outside factors such as comprehensive taxation reform.
Back then:

To break it down, in 1973, median house prices across Australia’s capital cities looked something like this:

    Sydney – $27,400Australia
    Melbourne – $19,800
    Brisbane – $17,500
    Adelaide – $16,250
    Perth – $18,850
    Canberra – $26,850
    Hobart – $15,200
    Darwin – $87,500 (information unavailable until 1986; this value reflects 1986 housing costs)

Nowadays, we’re looking at much higher digits and another set of zeroes added to the price, according to September 2014 numbers from Domain Group’s House Price Report:

    Sydney – $843,994
    Melbourne – $615,068
    Brisbane – $473,924
    Adelaide – $459,258
    Perth – $604,822
    Canberra – $573,326
    Hobart – $322,274
    Darwin – $667,115

Let’s put this into perspective:

Back in 1973, the average weekly wage was $111.80 (including full- and part-time workers), according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Today, a full-time worker makes on average $1453.90 weekly (before tax).

However, in the house price report, Dr Andrew Wilson, senior economist for the Domain Group, predicts that housing-market activity will continue to decline as affordable housing falls, joblessness increases and consumer confidence wavers.
The changing property landscape

Lynch further explains:

    “There have been many changes within the property landscape over the last 50 years.

    We’ve seen a welcome increase in the level of foreign investment in commercial real estate, which has allowed for many inner-city apartment projects and new housing developments in the outer suburbs.

    We’ve also seen an increase in the level of single-person households, both with retirees living longer and often alone in their family homes as well as with younger professionals who are increasingly living alone in inner-city areas. This, in turn, places extra demand on housing supply,”

My thoughts:

While there is a growing level of concern about the low levels of first-home buyers entering the market in recent years, I remember buying my first property 40 years ago.

I paid $18,000 for a house and received $12 a week rent (and was excited!) I got $12 a week rent and took out a 30 year loan and had no idea how I’d ever pay that $18,000 off.

It was hard for first home buyers as well as property investors then. Having said that today many first home buyers are having to decide is it better to rent or to buy , and many are choosing to rent in areas they want to live, but can’t afford to buy and instead they become renting investors and buy an investment property where they can afford to helping them get a foot up the property ladder as explained by John McGrath here
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发表于 2014-11-10 13:49 |显示全部楼层
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40年房价涨30倍,工资涨13倍, 实际增值2.36 倍。

发表于 2014-11-10 13:49 |显示全部楼层
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都贵了

发表于 2014-11-10 14:25 |显示全部楼层
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In Sydney:
In 1973, media house price was $27,400, the average weekly wage was $111.80, i.e. property is 245x weekly wage   = 4.7 years
Today, media house price is $ $843,994 and average weekly wage is $1453.90, i.e. property is 581x weekly wage   = 11.2 years   
you only live once

发表于 2014-11-10 15:05 |显示全部楼层
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YugaYuga 发表于 2014-11-10 15:25
In Sydney:
In 1973, media house price was $27,400, the average weekly wage was $111.80, i.e. proper ...

In older days, most families had only one wage earner; these days, most families have two wage earners. So the time needed to pay off house mortgages is similar now and then.

发表于 2014-11-10 15:12 |显示全部楼层
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tigerbalm 发表于 2014-11-10 16:05
In older days, most families had only one wage earner; these days, most families have two wage ear ...

very misleading, to say the least
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发表于 2014-11-10 15:13 |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2014-11-10 15:14 |显示全部楼层
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tigerbalm 发表于 2014-11-10 16:05
In older days, most families had only one wage earner; these days, most families have two wage ear ...

good point
you only live once

发表于 2014-11-10 15:22 |显示全部楼层
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单薪家庭基本没法买房了
头像被屏蔽

禁止访问

发表于 2014-11-10 15:46 |显示全部楼层
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mark

发表于 2014-11-10 15:55 |显示全部楼层
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房价还会更贵的
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发表于 2014-11-10 16:42 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 猴子请来的逗比 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 猴子请来的逗比 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
过去40年房价涨了30倍,按中介话说,40年后 当我们垂垂老矣的时候,今天100w的房子,那时候就要3000w,我X,想不到千万富翁离我如此之近。

发表于 2014-11-10 16:59 |显示全部楼层
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我觉得时间选错了。应该是80年代,因为那是利率是最高

2019年度勋章

发表于 2014-11-10 17:04 |显示全部楼层
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文章的意思是说,未来40年,房价与收入的比例将回复到正常位置?

发表于 2014-11-10 20:14 |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2014-11-10 20:27 |显示全部楼层
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simond 发表于 2014-11-10 14:49
40年房价涨30倍,工资涨13倍, 实际增值2.36 倍。

可以看看人口增加了多少,  个人觉得房价除去通货膨胀外,应该是一个地方人口越多,房价越贵
车贷,不看收入
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头像被屏蔽

禁止发言

发表于 2014-11-10 20:47 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 sdcmc 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 sdcmc 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
本帖最后由 sdcmc 于 2014-11-10 21:48 编辑
tigerbalm 发表于 2014-11-10 16:05
In older days, most families had only one wage earner; these days, most families have two wage ear ...


還可以這麼騙自己? 那麼如果有這麼一天,你也可以說,以前一天工作8小時,現在一般工作16小時,所以房價負擔一樣.

发表于 2014-11-10 21:06 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 theforest 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 theforest 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
屌丝只能靠买房了,租房的才是款爷

发表于 2014-11-10 21:07 |显示全部楼层
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simond 发表于 2014-11-10 13:49
40年房价涨30倍,工资涨13倍, 实际增值2.36 倍。

加上杠杆算算
向足迹生活家们学习

发表于 2014-11-10 21:08 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 巴乔 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 巴乔 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
theforest 发表于 2014-11-10 21:06
屌丝只能靠买房了,租房的才是款爷

确实是,租房的是有钱人
向足迹生活家们学习

发表于 2014-11-10 23:38 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 eurekana 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 eurekana 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
我觉得这个中位数好像不够准确。
70年代中期,不少glen waveley的房子在7,8万左右。几个downsizer的卖家当年买的就是这个价。
考虑到工资和房价都是十几倍的涨幅,房子的可负担程度并没有太大差别。
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