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The irrational “property-crash-party” often cite Australia’s high debt/gdp ratio as one huge crack in the system.
But they fail to mention that this measure has actually fallen since Covid. And that Australia’s income/gdp ratio is one of the highest in the world (that’s how the debt is serviced). The other side of the ledger.
You don’t buy a Maserati supercar unless you have the funds to service it each year.
Also, as a proportion to total residential property value of c. $11 trillion, Australian debt is below 20%.
That’s like saying 80% of your house is paid off. Pretty safe I’d say.
Compare this with Canada’s cumulative LVR of > c. 30% and you start to build perspective.
Yes Canada has the second highest debt/gdp.
But remember, its housing collapse was mostly limited to major cities (think Sydney & Melbourne equivalent), the regionals are doing just fine.
Furthermore, even within the major cities detached houses are doing just fine and pretty stable - it’s only the unit market that gas collapsed (a bit like Australia in 2017).
Over 50% of Canadian units were bought investors - no wonder it was a bubble that popped!
Don’t blindly accept that Australia is the “next Canada”. But “this time it’s different” right? |
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