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The Fed could make a US recession even worse if it overreacts
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
June 24, 2022 — 11.30am
The US is either in recession already, or probably will be by early autumn in the northern hemisphere. This has sweeping consequences for the world’s dollarised financial system, for commodity demand and for global inflation.
The New York Federal Reserve’s internal model is flashing an 80 per cent risk that the US economy will enter a sustained contraction in the second half of this year, much sooner than presumed just weeks ago. The chances of a “soft landing” have dropped to 10 per cent. If so, you can stop worrying about an inflationary spiral.
The possibility of Jerome Powell and the Fed being able to engineer a soft landing is dimming.
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发表于 2022-6-23 22:14
