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Australian dollar could fall to US50c: economists
Economists are warning the Australian dollar is falling with no end in sight, with some saying it could reach as low as half a US dollar before beginning to rise again.
Most analysts had been predicting the dollar would slump to US70¢ by early in 2016, but are now revising their forecasts lower after the Australian dollar dropped through this twice on Wednesday and continued to hover perilously close to doing so again throughout Thursday, trading at just US70.19¢ in late trade.
One of the few economists who predicted the Australian dollar could slide to US66¢ by the end of this year is now warning a 50s handle is possible by the end of 2016.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Adam Boyton said the dollar could face a "benign collapse" at the beginning of the year when it was only a few cents of trading equally with the US dollar.
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He is now saying the dollar will keep falling to US60¢ by the end of 2016, and further down the road possibly even past that into the US50¢ range.
"I wouldn't be surprised if the Australian dollar is printed with a 'five' handle in the next three years," Mr Boyton said.
"As far as reaching a bottom, I don't think we'll know what that is until Chinese growth picks up, and our economy adjusts from the mining boom enough the RBA will be considering raising rates. All of those things seem quite some distance away, and I don't think the Australian dollar is likely to rise until at least 2017 or 2018."
The reasons for his latest revision lower remain similar: falling commodity prices, declining mining investment, reduced government spending and the economy struggling to transition from being led by the mining industry to more services-driven growth.
Mr Boyton is not alone in his view the dollar could continue to fall all the way to US50¢.
Suncorp senior economist Darryl Conroy is also expecting the dollar to fall towards US50¢.
"Historically, such periods introduce much change and volatility in exchange rates, whereby currencies tend to overshoot. As such, we may revisit currency levels we have not seen for many years," Mr Conroy said.
So how low can the dollar go? The Australian dollar is a notoriously volatile currency that is particularly prey to Chinese economic movements, but so far no one is predicting it will sink lower than its a historic low of US47.9¢ in April 2001.
The Commonwealth Bank currency strategist Elias Haddad said they were also yet to cut forecasts and would wait until the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's meeting on September 16, in which there is a slim chance they may raise interest rates for the first time in a decade.
A falling currency is not completely bad news however.
"A weaker Australian dollar is a necessary part of the adjustment to a post-mining economy," Mr Boyton said.
"An important historical precedent is during the Asian crisis of the '90s, the Aussie's falling by a lot helped cushion the economy and saved us from following all of our major Asian trading partners into recession."
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... .html#ixzz3kfDJaMhh
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2012年7月半月谈 小谈《红楼梦》 (2012-7-15) Rainstorm 
楼主:Maobama
发表于 2015-9-2 12:51
