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发表于 2021-4-15 07:49
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英文原文贴在下面，就不翻译了。
House prices will rise 25 per cent between now and the end of 2023, according to research that uses similar analysis to the Reserve Bank’s own scenario modelling.
Coolabah Capital Investments chief macro strategist Kieran Davies applied research developed by former RBA economists Peter Tulip and Trent Saunders to produce house price forecasts for the next few years.
The forecasts pencil in an increase of 8 per cent over 2021, with a range of 1 to 15 per cent for that year. They expect another 9 per cent increase in 2022, with a range of between 9 and 26 per cent. A final 8 per cent is predicted for 2023.
The total accumulative range of price growth over the next three years is between 14 and 36 per cent.
“This may seem a wide range, but is not surprising considering the volatility of house prices,” Mr Davies said.
Coolabah’s model is based on one of several of the RBA’s house price models. A central bank spokesman said the one used was derived from one in a 2019 discussion paper.
“This is simply one model and one source of information among many others that the bank refers to in the course of understanding housing market conditions,” the RBA spokesman said. “It should not be construed as representing the RBA’s forecasts.”
So far, prices have surged 5.8 per cent in three months. National house prices jumped 2.8 per cent in March – the fastest rate of growth in 32 years.
Mr Davies’ model incorporates feedback between housing construction, rents, vacancies and prices. It also incorporates risks around population and macroprudential regulation.
“The model’s predictions could be challenged by the uniqueness of the pandemic, where the working-age population has stalled for the first time in over a century given the closure of Australia’s border,” Mr Davies said.
“This is a massive change from the estimation period for the housing model, which spans from the 1980s to now.
“Another risk is that banks reduce lending standards as the housing market strengthens, which would trigger a regulatory response.
“However, while the Council of Financial Regulators is closely monitoring the housing market, the RBA has indicated that lending standards remain conservative, while credit spreads on riskier mortgages remain unchanged.”
With these risks and a similar approach to house price forecasts, Mr Davies expects the RBA will think the same but that it should not be concerned.
Risks remain
“Our expectation is that the RBA would anticipate much the same 25 per cent gain over the next few years given it is also likely to use the same model.
“Although the RBA has been clear in its forward guidance that policy will remain accommodative for several years until it meets its economic goals, there is some risk that monetary policy is tightened sooner than expected, which is a tension evident in recent market pricing of rate rises starting next year.
“The RBA should take comfort from rising house prices because higher asset prices are a key part of the transmission mechanism of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy.”
Coolabah’s forecasts also cover prices for newly built property. There they expect gains to be more front-loaded, with a forecast increase of about 17 per cent over the course of 2021, roughly 5 per cent over 2022, and about 2 per cent over 2023.
However, the outlook for rents is not optimistic.
Rents are expected to decline by about 1 per cent over 2021 and the same again in 2022 as the vacancy rate remains relatively high, peaking at 3.8 per cent given the weakness in the working-age population.
Rents are then expected to fall 0.5 per cent over 2023 before broadly stabilising over the following year. |
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