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发表于 2018-9-29 09:12
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全世界房价泡沫最严重的城市是香港 其次是温哥华多伦多
The cost of owning a home bought in the second quarter of 2018 would have taken up 53.9% of a typical household's income, up from 43.2% in 2015.
In Vancouver, the percentage was 88.4;
in Toronto, it was 75.9.
It was 65% in Victoria. "
These (percentages) represented the worst ever levels on record since the mid-1980s in all three markets," the bank said. "No wonder the current generation of local buyers feels overwhelmed—no other generation has faced as much affordability pressure in this country."
From overheating to correction to the onset of recovery, it's been a wild three years in Canada's housing market: "Yet an eye-watering loss of affordability has been a constant."
RBC put the reason for the most recent drop in affordability on the central bank's decision to lift its key interest rate.
"We've seen a material rise in mortgage rates since the Bank of Canada launched its hiking campaign in July 2017 and this kept ownership costs on a steep upward trajectory despite home prices stabilising," the bank said.
The outlook, RBC said, "isn't very promising".
RBC said it expected the central bank to increase its overnight rate by 75 basis points to 2.25% in the first half of 2019. This will keep mortgage rates under upward pressure and boost ownership costs even more across Canada in the period ahead, it also said.
"We estimate that, everything else remaining constant, a 75 basis point increase in mortgage rates would lift RBC's aggregate affordability measure for Canada by roughly 2.8 percentage points. Growing household income will provide some partial offset. So potential buyers hoping to get a meaningful break will likely be disappointed.
"We expect intensifying affordability pressures to restrain homebuyer demand over the coming year."
In terms of what's happening in Vancouver, RBC said it's fair to call it a "crisis".
"Buying a single-detached home is for the rich only (it would take almost 120% of a typical household's income to cover ownership costs). And settling for a condo also increasingly looks like a luxury for many. Worse, the situation is poised to deteriorate further as interest rates continue to rise.
"This means that rental housing will become the only viable option for a growing proportion of households. Whether the record 8100 rental units currently under construction will meet that demand is an open question." |
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