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iamjasontan 发表于 2016-9-13 19:19 
等这一天等了好多年了。。
接着等
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NAB chief economist Alan Oster described the ISSA’s prediction of an imminent collapse as “garbage”, adding that the CLSA report was “very poor analysis”
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According to NAB’s surveys of property developers, foreign buyers make up around 20 per cent of off-the-plan purchases, but that figure is “significantly higher” in Sydney and Melbourne CBDs.
Mr Oster said the issue of settlement risk was “probably further down the track” in 2017-18. “The idea that the banks, who might own 20 to 30 per cent max of these apartments, will somehow crash the market is silly,” he said.
“To get any sort of problem you’ve really got to have something going wrong in China and then everybody selling their apartments at the same time. If they do that then it’s not an Australian problem, that’s a global problem.”
ANZ economist Daniel Gradwell said while there was “definitely” a risk of rising defaults, “from our discussions with developers in the industry we are feeling a little bit like ‘where there’s a will there’s a way’”.
“There is still an incredible amount of demand coming from these Chinese buyers,” he said. “If they’re not getting finance from the major banks, it seems there are other options out there including non-bank financing.
“It’s worth remembering there is still a lot of money out there searching for a home or somewhere to invest.”
Commonwealth Bank said concerns about a peaking in the residential construction cycle “look overdone” and it wasn’t expecting any “significant contraction” until late 2017 and early 2018.
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