保时捷太牛了！把hedge fund玩死了。。。

黑山老妖

Hedge funds make £18bn loss on VW
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7697082.stm

Hedge funds have lost £18bn in two days of trading in Volkswagen (VW) shares that briefly saw the carmaker become the world's most valuable company.

VW shares rose 348% over Monday and Tuesday after it emerged that only about 5% of its shares were available.

Funds that had bet on the shares falling desperately needed to buy the shares to close their positions.

But VW shares fell 45% in trading on Wednesday as Porsche said it would help to solve the hedge funds' problems.

"In order to avoid further market distortions and the resulting consequences for those involved, Porsche SE intends - depending on the state of the market - to settle hedging transactions in the amount of up to 5% of the Volkswagen ordinary shares," Porsche said in a statement.

       

Inevitably some traders and investors are calling foul

Robert Peston, BBC business editor

Read Robert Peston's blog

"This may result in an increase in the liquidity of the Volkswagen ordinary shares."

Controlling stakes

On Sunday, Porsche announced it controlled more than 74% of VW shares.

VW's home state of Lower Saxony owns another 20%.

The panic buying was caused by traders who had short-sold VW shares desperately trying to buy them back so they could close their positions.

Before Porsche's announcement, many traders had been betting on VW's shares falling.

They had borrowed VW shares and sold them in the market, planning to buy them back when the shares had fallen, return them to the lender and pocket the difference.

But what actually happened was that the shares rose as a result of Porsche's effective takeover and the traders found themselves forced to buy the shares at any price.

"Each and any short-seller in the world is trying to close up their position and there is no way they can do it, except for trying to buy like mad," said Heino Ruland, an analyst at FrankfurtFinanz.

What is upsetting the hedge funds is that if between 10% and 15% of VW shares were on loan to be shorted and only just over 5% were available in the market, it is likely that many of the funds that shorted VW had borrowed the shares from Porsche.

It meant that because Porsche had not declared the proportion of VW shares it controlled, traders may have been indirectly and inadvertently borrowing shares from Porsche, selling them to Porsche, buying them back from Porsche and then returning them to Porsche.

None of this is currently outlawed by German authorities, but many commentators have described it as bringing German capital markets into disrepute.

The affair shows reform is needed in the way stock markets operate, according to Chris Day, chief executive of the hedge fund infrastructure providers PCE Investors.

"While there has been much talk that hedge funds should improve their transparency, perhaps the issue should be widened to include stock exchanges to help stop this sort of thing happening," he said.

Bigger than Exxon

VW's shares peaked on Tuesday at 1,005 euros, valuing the company at 296bn euros ($370bn; £237bn), which is well over the $343bn value of Exxon Mobil - previously the world's most valuable company.

Last Friday, VW's shares closed below 200 euros.

On Wednesday they closed down 430 euros, at 514 euros.

As an indication of how extreme the market valuation is, last year Exxon made profits of $41bn on sales of $390bn while Volkswagen managed profits of about $8bn on sales of $136bn.

jialiren

呵呵，Porsche 有 74% of VW shares.--牛！在当前的世道，
Porsche玩的水平厉害！
看到这句话可以想象当时的hedge fund 的人是怎么样的 go MAD 了----“ actually happened was that the shares rose as a result of Porsche's effective takeover and the traders found themselves forced to buy the shares at any price”

[ 本帖最后由 jialiren 于 2008-11-2 16:26 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

最牛的是这个：

What is upsetting the hedge funds is that if between 10% and 15% of VW shares were on loan to be shorted and only just over 5% were available in the market, it is likely that many of the funds that shorted VW had borrowed the shares from Porsche.

It meant that because Porsche had not declared the proportion of VW shares it controlled, traders may have been indirectly and inadvertently borrowing shares from Porsche, selling them to Porsche, buying them back from Porsche and then returning them to Porsche.

这个庄家做的太牛了
(paopaobing(32)) (paopaobing(32))

jialiren

全控了，牛--乖乖的把钱给送进来

jialiren

好好学习这种CASE，经典的炒盘

黑山老妖

最后保时捷还得了好处卖乖

"In order to avoid further market distortions and the resulting consequences for those involved, Porsche SE intends - depending on the state of the market - to settle hedging transactions in the amount of up to 5% of the Volkswagen ordinary shares," Porsche said in a statement.

RichC

市场披露不透明，持衍生工具头寸不用披露，保时捷就是钻了这个空子忽悠了hedge fund，呵呵

这几天vw的股价也有如过山车，一度炒到1000多欧元

黑山老妖

5%的流通股，被short了10-15%。这也太夸张了。要是被披露了可能没有人这么傻会去short VW了。

老杏

我还是不明白为什么有人那么傻把股票借给别人卖，自己损失的就不是钱了？

黑山老妖

原帖由 clur 于 2/11/2008 16:51 发表
我还是不明白为什么有人那么傻把股票借给别人卖，自己损失的就不是钱了？

因为通常借股票出去的都是custodian。股票不是他们的，他们只要到时候账上有n股abc公司就可以了。所以他们会借股票出去赚钱。

老杏

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-11-2 16:54 发表


因为通常借股票出去的都是custodian。股票不是他们的，他们只要到时候账上有n股abc公司就可以了。所以他们会借股票出去赚钱。

custodian是指什么人？他们不对股票的拥有者负责吗？

不会游泳的鱼

炒股的最高境界啊，把對手夾爆！

黑山老妖

原帖由 clur 于 2/11/2008 16:59 发表


custodian是指什么人？他们不对股票的拥有者负责吗？

就是托管人。不如说这次中铝买了RIO的股票，让雷曼兄弟托管。
雷曼兄弟就可以把这些股票借给他人去short，只要中铝要用的时候这些股票能拿出来就行了。

老杏

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-11-2 17:01 发表

就是托管人。不如说这次中铝买了RIO的股票，让雷曼兄弟托管。
雷曼兄弟就可以把这些股票借给他人去short，只要中铝要用的时候这些股票能拿出来就行了。

这中间不涉及股票所有权的交割吗？如果有交割，交易所为什么不通知股票所有人呢？

黑山老妖

原帖由 clur 于 2/11/2008 17:05 发表
这中间不涉及股票所有权的交割吗？如果有交割，交易所为什么不通知股票所有人呢？

里面挺复杂的。

老杏

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-11-2 17:07 发表

里面挺复杂的。

我只是想知道自己的股票如果被借出去可能发现吗？

风中旗

复杂看不懂

托姆

有钱就能对赌，钱多的总能赌过钱少的，做短线的和做庄的赌上了总没好。

甜螺

太复杂，太深奥了。。

wdmznzd

要问这两天全球最牛气冲天的股票是哪只，答案非“大众汽车”（Volkswagen AG）莫属。这家欧洲最大的汽车制造商本周一、周二仅两个交易日股 价狂涨了近4倍，竟然一度跃居全球市值第一。

然而，要问这两天最让机构投资者痛心流泪的股票是哪只，答案也非“大众汽车”莫属。几乎有100多只对冲基金因为集体做空，而在这场大众股价盛宴中巨亏近400亿美元。

股价两天涨4倍
事情起因来自于保时捷公司的一纸增持公告。上周日，保时捷披露称已将其在大众的持股数从31.5％增至42.6％，并还取得了另外31.5％的认购权，这也就意味着保时捷将掌控大众约75％的股权。

此举大大出乎市场预料，显然保时捷对大众的兴趣之大超过了所有人的想象，包括经验老到的对冲基金交易员们。由于全球经济陷入衰退，汽车业已被大多数分析师认为将首当其冲，包括大众在内的汽车股成为做空的首选对象。

然而，“悲剧”发生了。周一，也就是在保时捷发布公告的后一天，大众股价立即从上周末收盘的210欧元飙升至518欧元，涨幅147％。周二，“发了疯”的大众再度上扬77％，收于918欧元，而盘中更是摸高1005欧元，市值一度超过埃克森美孚蹿至全球第一。


基金两天亏380亿美元
大众股价飙涨带来的不是喝彩声，相反却是一片恐慌——来自那些“押错注”做空大众，赌其股价跌的投资者。事实上大众股价的“无厘头”飙升，很大程度上正是这些做空者不顾一切地“空头回补”所致。

但是，损失已不可避免，其中尤以对冲基金亏损最为惨重。据业内人士粗略估计，有超过100家对冲基金事前做空大众，由此造成的损失可能高达380亿美元。

一家大型对冲基金的经理表示：“损失将极大。虽然我不认为这会导致一家大基金倒闭，但很可能会让一些小基金破产。”

绿光资本（Greenlight）或是其中的一个典型。据知情人士透露，该基金在周二大众股价飙升后蒙受了巨大损失。值得关注的是，绿光资本的基金经理David Einhorn此前正是在做空雷曼兄弟中一举成名，而这次却“老马失蹄”。

据业内人士称，大众是许多对冲基金寻求套利的对象。调研公司Data Explorers的数据显示，大众有约13％的股份被借出做空，这个比例是德国大型公司中最高的。

市场成最大输家？
除了对冲基金，一些投资银行也被“大众事件”牵连了进去。由于许多银行被认为是做保时捷的对手盘，因此这次也赔了大钱。受相关传言影响，法兴银行股价周二大跌17.5％，摩根士丹利和高盛同日也分别下跌了11％和8％。

然而，已有诸多投资者认为，此次事件最大的输家可能是德国的整个资本市场。

大众的股东之一、德国最大基金公司DWS的负责人Klaus Kaldemorgen说，大众一天内股价飙升100％以上意味着整个市场存在系统性风险。

这一事件也是对中国股市的一个很好警示。国内某知名私募基金人士表示，“大众事件”其实就是一次融券做空失败的典型案例。

大众股价周三大幅回落。截至北京时间周三晚23：00报577.21欧元，较前日下37％。

sweeet

这个是因为披露制度的问题，因为“另外31.5％的认购权”按规定不需要披露

黑山老妖

原帖由 clur 于 2/11/2008 17:15 发表


我只是想知道自己的股票如果被借出去可能发现吗？

你的不会。因为你的股票不够多。用不着custodian。但是你的super可能会做这事。

Devil_Star

一般借出的都是SUPERFUND和PENSIONFUND， 他们没有一定得卖股票的的压力。

随便输入

金融小白看完相关新闻后的理解：
周日前：对冲基金预期大众股票跌，所以均卖空股票（借来VW股票卖出，到期后——股票下跌后——从市场买回，还给借出方，然后获利）；对冲基金卖空的股票大约占VW总股份的10%-15%；
周日，波仔说：我们已经拥有大众汽车74%的股票。然后大家都知道，VW家族拥有20%的股票。然后大家很简单的算出，市场上还流通的股票大约5%-6%之间了。
周一开市后，VW10%-15%的股票已经是被卖空的，但只有5%-6%的股票可以卖，也就是说，求远远大于供（因为基金必须要填回他们接了卖出的股票就必须从市场买回），或者说大家要从波仔汽车那里买股票，然后还给波仔汽车，当然啦，价钱就是波仔说了算了。。。。所以，股票就飙升了。。。。。
各位牛人遮遮掩掩，小白要看懂并解释清楚不容易，大家看明白的加点分鼓励下吧。。。。

不会游泳的鱼

其實多頭不是通過買入股票，而是衍生品，估計是期權（渦輪）做多，對股票本身的波動影響不大。股票大升主要是空頭發現被夾爆，不得不買入股票平倉導致。其實如果空頭也是通過衍生品做空，情況應該沒這么嚴重吧？

galway

看起来像一个德国人狠狠咬了美国人一口，乖乖。。。那天中国也发生这种事情就牛x了

zmzhu

太牛了，有点像以前历史上的那些著名投机案例了

吃喝拉撒睡

强啊强！不过波仔的保密工作做得的确不错。这么敏感的信息，100多家HF的众多触角都没有探到波仔的内部，看来德国公司的管理相当过硬。

买房子啊

Porche真的什么都牛, 跑车牛, 投资牛, 我真的想等经济好了之后买个911玩玩

Devil_Star

原帖由 买房子啊 于 2008-11-3 16:13 发表
Porche真的什么都牛, 跑车牛, 投资牛, 我真的想等经济好了之后买个911玩玩

我已经蒸发了一部～