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本帖最后由 tommyinmeloz 于 2015-12-2 14:21 编辑
目前有充分的理由相信房价会崩溃:
-- 前期房价急速攀升主要是由于投资者和海外(中国)非法买家驱动,
目前因为政府的宏观审慎(Macroprudential) 和更严格资本控制导致这些资本逃离。
-- 投资驱动的市场比自住刚需型买家驱动的市场更容易受到冲击。
银行开始只对自住买家提供房贷优惠，而不会再对投资者提供任何优惠举措。
-- 广义经济层面，明年就业率将面临三重冲击：1，房地产建设投资出现断崖式下降（Capex Cliff) 2， 矿业投资持续萎缩。3，汽车行业关闭 （丰田，Holden）
-- 澳洲贸易赤字将更严重，导致家庭收入持续减少。矿业繁荣带来的收入光环将不复存在。财政预算也将继续大幅落空。
-- 人口的快速增长目前已经开始迅速停止，（参见我的另外一个帖子 庞氏计划的落空-澳洲必须接纳更少移民
-- 这几年迅猛建设的新房有效解决了前段时间的房屋供给不足。
-- 珀斯房价已近开始崩溃，成为导火索。
-- 利率已经基本接近历史底部，估计即使明年降息两次，最多只有0.5%空间。这与之前两端时期2% 和 3.5%不可同日而语。
-- 澳元也已经处于底部。
综上，房价肯定会回到泡沫前的位置，甚至更低。
同学们， 吐血分享 APT Capital Management 关于澳洲房地产是否是泡沫的文章。
结论当然是泡沫，一旦破裂，结果可是很严重地。
如果你Google 房地产泡沫，会看到泡沫的破灭分几个阶段。其中会有复杂的中短期反弹。但始终会破回原形。
所以同学们请擦亮眼睛，拭目以待吧。
全英文版本，我就不翻译了。
下面是结论。PDF版本链接在底部。
Ultimately, fears over the Australian housing market are indeed founded. Our indicators overwhelmingly suggest that there’s a bubble, and that it will be dangerous when it bursts:
The rate at which house prices are rising is sharp, persistent and increasingly detached from fundamentals. It’s also an issue that affects a clear majority of the population.
The house price to income ratio is rising and is already higher than it was in the US prior to 2008. There are clear signs of mania in the market.
The percentage of mortgages that have interest-only periods is high and rising.
Regulators’ attempts to restrain banks’ lending seem to be too little, too late.
Overall household debt as a percentage of incomes is high and rising, as is mortgage debt. Australians’ average mortgage repayments constitute an unsustainably high percentage of their incomes.
Households’ ability to make their mortgage repayments is likely to be compromised in the near-mid future by adverse macroeconomic conditions and potentially also an interest rate rise.
Cumulatively, these findings and developments show that Australian house prices are not on a sustainable path and that the market is heading for real trouble. Australia’s properties are overvalued and becoming even more so, with no clear catalysts for a healthy slow-down.
Although the currently rising prices are generally welcomed by homeowners, and feed back favourably into the wider economy via the wealth effect, they are not reflective of healthy economic fundamentals. Such beneficial effects stand to be undone when the bubble bursts. The coming house price correction will further harm Australia’s already sluggish economic growth.
The higher prices rise, the more damaging the pull-back is likely to be. With such a large proportion of their profits and balance sheets comprised of mortgages, Australian banks are particularly vulnerable to such a correction. We do not believe their recent and planned capital raisings to be sufficient to maintain their capital adequacy ratios once the bubble bursts.
It certainly seems as though Australia is on a collision course with some harder financial times than it’s been used to.
Calling the top of an asset bubble is notoriously difficult, but according to our criteria – the level of mania, the increasing overvaluation, etcetera – it seems not be too far away; the cycle appears to be nearing its end. This is echoed by the increasing media and analyst attention to the issue in recent months.
澳洲房地产泡沫分析 |
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参加活动——家常便饭之第一、二、三晚 (2010-7-15) chloe_girl 
发表于 2015-12-1 17:33
