Global Wrap ( 1st April 15) - We Call The S&P/ASX 200 Down 27

ajz

Global Wrap - We Call The S&P/ASX 200 Down 27

As the first quarter draws to an end we note a startling divergence in performance between European and U.S. stocks over the start to the year. Not too much of a surprise then, as we’ve opined in the past, that the stance of the relative central banks would affect performance. The EuroStoxx600 has surged about 18% in the first 3 months whilst the Dow has just recorded its first negative quarter in 9 (negative for the year to date of course) whilst the S&P500 is up by the barest of margins. It was a bumpy period too, with relatively low volumes and daily swings in excess 1% the most frequent since Q4 2011. It’s important to note too, that as we await Q1 earnings reports from U.S. corporates, the expectation is for an overall fall of 4.7% from a year ago. In addition, we expect very low U.S. GDP growth (circa +0.3%) for the period. On the day the Stoxx600 fell 0.64% whilst the Dow fell 1.11% (200 points).

We’ve been touting a slowdown in U.S. data of late, but the huge miss in the Fed’s Chicago manufacturing PMI has taken even us by surprise. For the 2nd straight month, we have a terrible economic data point out of the Midwest. The March Chicago PMI came in at 46.3, up only slightly from last month and way below the 51.7 expected. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity in the region. For the first quarter, the region's business barometer is averaging 50.5, down from 61.3 in the fourth quarter of last year and the lowest level since the third quarter of 2009. Quite a slowdown indeed and goes to our Q1 GDP expectations.

Some tentative signs that the weaker EUR is helping stave off deflation in the Eurozone. Prices fell for the 4th consecutive month, but less steeply than in previous months. The euro has dropped almost a fifth against the dollar over the past year, thanks in part to the ECB’s quantitative easing programme. Inflation stood at minus 0.1 % y/y in March. This drop in prices comes after a 0.3% fall in February and 0.6% dip in January. But core inflation, the central banks preferred measure which strips out the cost of food and energy, slowed to 0.6% in March from 0.7% in February, which still leaves open the spectre of ful ly fledged deflation ahead.
No surprise then that the EUR underperformed in the offshore session, easing to 1.0750 from 1.0830 early our time yesterday.
The UK economy grew at a faster pace inn2014 than previously expected, with the final revision of Q4 GDP bringing the year to a 2.8% rate of growth, the fastest expansion since 2006. Building on the better GDP news, the GfK consumer confidence measure rose to its highest level in 12 years, rising to +4 from +1 In February, the highest since 2002. No doubt a boost to the incumbent government with 5 weeks to go until the general election.
Iron ore completed the biggest quarterly loss since at least 2009 as surging low-cost supplies from Australia and Brazil swamp the global market, spurring a glut as demand from China slows. Ore with 62% content at Qingdao, China, sank 28% since the start of the year. The raw material retreated to $51.35 a dry metric ton.
The market has moved to now price a 75% chance of a rate cut by the RBA next week.

黑山老妖

LZ每天转贴这个是什么意思？

ajz

不是转贴  是新贴