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wtds88

木屐族

发表于 2014-12-28 19:11 |显示全部楼层

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This is just a commentary not specific entry strategy!
EUR/JPY Daily Chart Summary on 28/12/2014
Momentum: Weekly momentum bearish. On daily chart, it is about to make a bearish reversal (5,3,3), expected decline after the reversal, immediate upside potential very limited.
Pattern: It looks like price is making a simple ABC correction and seems to just finish making a corrective high (W b or W 2). No matter it is a correction or a beginning of impulsive trend, there is potential for a decline. Price currently battles around SMA 30, a typical pattern for penetrating SMA. At the high point of W b, it also formed a doji bar which also confirms a possible decline.
Price: While W a does not touch any significant price level, it is more likely to be a temporary support. Corrective W c low could be at zone 1 or zone 2. Zone 1(143.543-143.775) includes 382 Re of 16/10/2014 low to 8/12/2014 high, 1272 APP of W a (projected from point a) and 1618 Ex-Re of potential W b. Zone 2 (141.928-142.007) includes 500 Re of 16/10/2014 low to 8/12/2014 high, 1618 APP of W a (projected from point a) and a triple 0 psychological support. Potential W b high is also close to 500 Re of W a, another convincing point.
Time: W a = 6, potential W b=6 which is 1000 Ex-Re of W a, stacking some evidence that W b has reached its high. W x (16/10/2014 low to 8/12/2014 high) =37. So 382-600 Re of W x is 14-23. Since from point x, it has already consumed 12 bars (to point b), 14 is very less likely. More than likely it will have 11 remaining for possible 23. 1618 ATP of W a is about 10. So, it is likely W c will have 10-11 bars to reach bottom.
Strategy: It is expected a bearish reversal will be created on the following day. Momentum pattern price and time all suggest a 2-units short trade can be considered. The objective of first unit is to taking advantage of W c low. The objective of second unit is to grip opportunity of possible 5 wave impulsive downtrend which could even target 786 Re of W x.