澳洲房产市场周度报告-PR DATA 2008年5月第二期(5.13更新)

applenet

如对以前期感兴趣,请参考以下链接:

http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=91901&extra=page%3D1

澳洲房产市场周度报告-PR DATA 2008年5月第一期

Properties currently listed for sale
房产挂牌销售情况

私人住宅新上市数字已达到12月平均值,市场供应量持续走高. 以澳洲最大的房产销售市场-悉尼市来说,独立屋和公寓平均销售时间为44和49天.而布里斯班则只需平均一个月时间.

现时有130,400私人住宅在市场上挂牌销售,几乎是去年同期的一倍.
As the number of new listings in the residential market hover around the twelve month average, supply continues to mount in the marketplace. In Australia’s largest market, Sydney, houses and units are averaging between 44 and 49 days to sell. At the other end of the spectrum, Brisbane properties are averaging around a month to sell the average home.

There are currently 130,400 residential properties for sale in the Australian marketplace, almost double the number listed for sale during the same period last year.

[ 本帖最后由 applenet 于 2008-5-13 21:41 编辑 ]

applenet

澳洲市场持续疲软

到08年三月止,澳洲房产在过去的一年中平均升值10.7%,然而在过去的这一季度市场大大放慢了增长速度.

RP DATA/RISKMARKT INTL月度房产值销售报告显示, 虽然澳洲房产市场持续疲软,但接着08年3月前一季度也又1.46%增长,显示年度增长可以达到6%.

除去利息增长和通货膨胀预期外,此数值显示房产投资较好的回馈和风险控制.

对比股票市场该回报相对较好,例如与3月季度同期相比,ASX200和ALL ORDERINARIES分别下降15.5%和15.8%.根据RP DATA/RISKMARK报告显示,主要城市中只有PERTH和堪培拉在上一季度分别下降1%和0.6%.虽然市值下降,PERTH仍然保持全国最高的UNIT平均中位价:464K.

Australian marketplace continues to soften

The value of the average Australian home has increased by 10.7 per cent over the twelve months ending March ‘08, however quarterly rates of growth indicate the market has slowed considerably.

The RP Data/Rismark International end of month Property Value Indices Report now indicates that while the Australian property market has softened, it remains steady with national values increasing by 1.46 per cent over the three months to March ’08, an annualised return of around 6 per cent.

Despite interest rate rises and inflation fears, this is quite a good result and demonstrates the good risk/return characteristics of diversification in an Australian residential property portfolio.

When compared to the share market, this return seems all the more positive. As an example, during the March quarter the ASX200 and All Ordinaries dropped 15.5 per cent and 15.8 per cent respectively.
Based on the RP Data – Rismark findings, the only capital cities to record a fall in property values were Perth and Canberra where dwelling values declined by 1.0 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively over the quarter. Despite the fall, Perth units hold the most expensive median value of any capital city at $464,000.

[ 本帖最后由 applenet 于 2008-5-4 20:38 编辑 ]

applenet

全国各主要城市回顾:

Around the nation

Adelaide has the most affordable housing with a median value of $419,156, and is still the number one performing city in the country. The city recorded the strongest gains in the market with values increasing by 23.4 per cent over the year to March ’08. Adelaide appears to have largely shrugged off the recent rate rises with consistent growth across all its regions.

Brisbane recorded growth of around 20 per cent with most regions delivering returns of 15-20 per cent over the year to March ’08. Inner city Brisbane stands out as the best performing region with growth of 35 per cent over the year. The city’s outer regions are starting to show the first signs of weakening with Beaudesert, Caboolture and Logan all recording fairly flat markets during the March quarter. Redland property values fell slightly during the most recent quarter.

Melbourne growth rates are still healthy on an annual basis, however quarterly growth figures show a considerable slowing. The separation between the affluent inner suburban markets of Melbourne and the outer mortgage belt areas is becoming more apparent. While the inner and middle ring suburbs averaged around 3 to 6 per cent capital growth over the March quarter, the outer regions such as Melton-Wyndham, Frankston and South Eastern Melbourne were flat. Hume City is the first Melbourne region to experience sustained falls, averaging 5 per cent over the quarter for houses and units.

Darwin continued to record a solid performance. Annual growth in dwelling values has remained above 10 per cent since late 2005. Demand for housing remains very high due to the strong population growth and economic conditions. At the same time, housing supply is very short. Rental rates in Darwin are providing the highest rental yields for both houses and units of any capital city. Houses are returning 5.5 per cent gross and units are returning 6.2 per cent gross.

Canberra values fell over the last quarter with houses down on average by 1.0 per cent and units down 2-3 per cent. Yields remain high in the national capital, second only to Darwin. Houses are averaging a gross rental yield of 5.1 per cent and units are averaging 5.8 per cent.

Sydney values increased by around 1.0 per cent for houses and units over the first quarter of 2008 which, according to RP Data’s Tim Lawless, is not a bad result considering the impact that affordability pressures have already had on the market. Many of the city’s prestige areas are starting to show weakness with markets in the Inner City, Eastern Suburbs, Lower North Shore and Northern Beaches all recording flat to slightly negative capital growth.


Perth values remain very flat with a rise in dwelling values of just 0.3% over the twelve months to March. The Central Metropolitan area of Perth is the only market to record a more significant gain. House values in this area have increased by 7.4 percent over the year. In contrast, the south west and south east regions of Perth have both recorded a decline in house values.

Reserve Bank to meet on Tuesday May 6 With interest rates now at 12 year highs the likelihood of another interest rate rise may be reduced. Apart from unexpectedly high inflation figures, the most recent quarterly data suggests that interest rates may stay on hold. Investment in the housing sector has slowed to historic lows, new home sales have slumped, consumer spending and credit levels are slowing and both consumer and business confidence is trending down. On top of all that, private banks have lifted rates out of step with the RBA since the start of 2008.

Another rise in interest rates will certainly cool the market further. The markets most affected will be the mortgage belts of Australia where mortgage stress is already at critical levels. A further rate rise could see property prices fall a further five percent in these locations.

On the other hand, a constant interest rate environment would likely put a floor under many areas which have seen significant value falls. If rates remain stable over the next twelve month we would expect national dwelling values to remain in positive growth territory.

魔头

pal2002

谢谢分享，顶一下

applenet

今天来更新一下第二期


Properties currently listed for sale
房产挂牌销售情况

现时有97,100个私人房产在市场上挂牌销售(APPLENET注:与上一期数字矛盾??),对比去年同期升高了73%. 在买家减少和房产比较过去停留市场时间加长的双重作用下,市场供应从一月中旬就持续走高. 虽然全国性的数据在显示供居住的房屋缺少,但是现时情况是销售供应仍然大于市场需求.

虽然造成这种供求关系失衡的原因很多,但是最根本的是买家信心不足.最近联储宣布官方利率在5月份维持不变,应该可以刺激一部分市场回暖.

There are currently 97,100 residential properties listed for sale throughout mainland Australia – 73% higher than the same week last year. Supply levels have been trending upwards since mid January due to low buyer numbers and properties taking longer to sell. In essence, despite a national undersupply of dwellings, the market supply is outweighing market demand.

The reasons for this imbalance are varied but can mainly be tied back to a fundamental lack of buyer confidence. The recent announcement by the Reserve Bank of Australia that the official cash rate will remain on hold for May should provide a much needed boost to market sentiment.

Rates remain on hold for now
The RBA has kept interest rates on hold for the time being, however they have their finger poised on the button should there be further inflationary pressures.

At their meeting earlier this week the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain the official cash rate at 7.25 percent. The decision not to lift rates, despite inflation rising outside of the RBA’s comfort zone, came as little surprise considering the wide array of key factors pointing towards slowing consumer demand.

Average Standard Variable Rate for Home Loan-Last 30 years


Most importantly, much of the RBA’s ‘dirty work’ has already been done, with private banks lifting their rates independent of any RBA decision. Since the beginning of 2007 the official cash rate has increased by 50 basis points while the average standard variable rate being charged by the nation’s private banks has risen by 90 basis points.

Other factors that would have helped sway the RBA not to move rates upward include:
• Slowing domestic demand: last year domestic demand grew by 5.7 percent but is expected to slow to around 3.5 percent this year.
• A slowing national economy: the national rate of economic growth is expected to slow to around 3.1 percent this year.
• Retail spending is slowing as Australian’s begin to tighten their purse strings and wind in credit.
• Housing price growth has slowed to just 1.46 percent over the most recent March quarter.
• Both consumer and business confidence measures are at historic lows.

On the other hand, recent labour force figures show the Australian jobs market remains as tight as ever. The participation rate (the overall size of the workforce) expanded to the highest level on record this week. Such strong growth in the labour market is likely to place a lot of pressure on wages which, to date, have remained relatively stable. If wages growth surpasses that of CPI, we will almost certainly be met with further rate rises from the RBA.

The latest monetary statement from the Reserve Bank continues to suggest a tightening bias. The RBA expects inflation to remain outside it 2-3 percent target range until 2010, however any further signs that inflation is trending upwards rather than downwards will most likely be swiftly dealt with in the form of another rate rise.

The hold on rates this month is good news for the property market and should serve to add a degree of much needed confidence to the market. If rates remain stable for the remainder of 2008 the national property market is likely to continue to enjoy moderate capital growth between 1 percent and 2 percent growth each quarter.