澳洲房产市场周度报告-PR DATA 4月第一。二期

applenet

总想发这个, 可是总是懒,今天终于有时间,发给大家看看,我觉得还是很有启发意义的.

Properties currently listed for sale

房产挂牌销售情况

The number of new properties entering the market appears to be settling around the twelve month average – a sure sign that vendors are becoming reluctant to place their property in the market during this ‘transitional phase’. As new listings slow, the total number of properties in the market continues to increase due to longer selling times and softening demand.

May 6th will be a key date for the real estate market, as this is when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next meets to decide if interest rates should be moved. Most economists are united in the belief that the cash rate will remain at 7.25%, however a large part of the bank’s decision will be based on the CPI figures, due for release next Wednesday (April 23). In recent statements, the RBA has hinted that rates may have risen enough to curb inflationary pressure.

房产挂牌数量与年度持平,但卖家不愿意在此市场情况下放出房子,所以新挂牌销售数字很低, 而市场还保持此数字实际上说明需求疲软,更多的房子在市场上停留时间加长.

5月6日将是房产市场的一个关键日期,因为澳储银行将再次开会决定利息走向.更多的经济分析家认为利率将维持7.25%水平. 然而银行将更加依赖CPI数字水平,4.23日公布. 在最近的几次公告中,澳储银行曾暗示利息已经达到高水平.



Australia's Top 50 growth suburbs
全澳高速增值的50个区域

Capital growth around the nation can be found in diverse locations
The Top 50 suburbs for capital growth around Australia demonstrate the diverse nature of the nation’s property market. The majority of top performers are located within the capital city boundaries (66%), however just over one third of the top performing suburbs are located outside the capitals.

These regional locations range from the resource driven towns of Kalgoorlie, Whyalla, Broken Hill and Claremont to the sea change markets of Cable Beach in northern WA, Booragul on the shores of Lake Macquarie and Alexandra Headland in the heart of the Sunshine Coast. Many of these markets are moving from a low base, such as Broken Hill where the median house price is still just $120,000.

The highest number of top growth suburbs can be found within the nation’s most rapidly growing capital city market, Adelaide. Over the last year house values within the broader Adelaide market have increased by 29.5%. Despite this rapid rate of growth, Adelaide still boasts the most affordable house prices of any capital city. 15 of the 50 top growth suburbs are located within the greater Adelaide metro area, further highlighting the city’s strong property market.

The central and northern Queensland coastline is also heavily represented in the top 50 capital growth list. Many of these sea side townships are being pushed along by strong demand flowing from the mining sector. Often resource workers will base their families along the coastline for the lifestyle benefits while they work in the nearby mining areas in and around the Bowen Basin. The ongoing strong population growth along the coast of Queensland is also a sold market driver.

With growth now slowing in most major markets, selecting locations for the best capital growth is once again becoming more strategic and solid research is becoming all the more important. Buyers are gaining more leverage in the market and properties are taking longer to sell.

Historically, the best capital growth has been found in the inner city markets, coastal markets and resource intensive locations, and these markets are likely to continue to provide some protection from any downturn. However there may be some counter intuitive opportunities during 2008. The mortgage belts of Sydney have had a rough trot since the end of 2003 and the most strategically placed locations such as the Macarthur districts are now showing strong investment fundamentals: low prices, strong yields and well above average population growth.

Also, the fringe suburbs of each capital city where undersupplied rental markets are creating high yields are also becoming more popular. For example, the middle ring southern and western suburbs of Brisbane such as Wacol, Logan and Ipswich provide low housing prices coupled with strong rental markets and are also well placed for investment. Rental yields in these outer suburbs are typically above average and there is growing demand from both investors and first home buyers.



[ 本帖最后由 applenet 于 2008-4-21 13:51 编辑 ]

applenet

再献上上一次报告内容, 4.3日的,做个比较

Properties currently listed for sale
市场挂牌销售情况

Nationally the number of new listings entering the market has been slowing since the third week of February. Last week an additional 13,040 new residential properties were listed for sale, which is below the twelve month average.

全国数字显示从二月的第三周开始,新入市场房产持续降低. 上周仅有13,040新加入房产, 比过去12月平均值低.

Fewer properties being added to the market is a positive sign, as the total level of supply has been mounting and is currently well above the twelve month average. With fewer new listings, the total supply trend has flattened indicating that supply and demand are relatively in equilibrium.

更少的新加入房产进入市场其实是个正面信息, 因为市场总供给量高于12个月平均值. 少量增长的市场供给和已经下降的市场需求可以达到平衡.


Cracks appear in the upper end of the market
数据显示高端市场开始出现裂痕

Property markets outside the mortgage belt are now starting to feel the pinch as a combination of interest rate rises and margin calls start to hit home.
在MORGAGE BELT以外的地区开始显示利率和资金收紧双重作用下的效果.

The latest index figures from the RP Data – Rismark Property Value Index were released earlier this week (see http://www.rpdata.net.au/indices/for more information). The index shows national property values increased by 13.65 per cent over the year to February 2008 – a healthy rate of return by any measure. It comes as no surprise, however, that growth in the market is slowing.
虽然数字上说明,以08年2月为计算的的年度13.65的增长率,但是也同时显示增长放慢的迹象.

Capital growth in the Australian market peaked during July last year and has been trending downwards since this time. The rate of descent has been controlled and is likely to settle around the 1.5 to 2.0 per cent mark for the remainder of 2008. Extrapolating this rate of growth out over the year, we are likely to see a national rate of growth around the 6 per cent to 8 per cent mark over the next year. 全澳去年7月达到历史峰值,自此后开始下降.



A region-by-region analysis of the latest Index data reveals some of Australia’s more affluent markets are now starting to feel the pinch. Mortgage holders in Australia’s wealthy suburbs have historically avoided any sustained downturn in home values due to the tight supply and strong demand for properties in these locations. While declines in property values have become relatively commonplace in the mortgage belt of Sydney and increasingly Melbourne and Perth, the inner suburbs and coastal markets have typically enjoyed above average growth.



Affordability pressures in these wealthy areas have not been as great as in the outer fringes. Mortgage holders in these inner city and coastal suburbs generally earn above average wages and have been prudent enough to leave a buffer in their budgets large enough to accommodate any rate rises. However with interest rates now at a 12 year high, not to mention the rising number of margin calls due to falling share prices, it appears that some of these upper working class and seaside markets are now becoming exposed to price falls.

Within Sydney the high profile Eastern Suburbs experienced a fall in house vales of 0.9 per cent over the six months ending February 2008 and house values within the Inner Western Suburbs fell by 1.2 per cent during the same period. Within Melbourne, house values in the Boroondara council area fell by 2.7 per cent over the last six months. Inner areas of Perth, apart from the Central Metropolitan area are also recording declines in the property values.

The median house value within the Eastern Suburbs is just over $1.7 million, after falling by 0.9 per cent over the last six months. These suburbs of Sydney are popular with young professional buyers, many of whom may have stretched their finances in an effort to buy their home. The average mortgage payments in this region are 70% higher than the national average, while the average income is only 50% higher than the average Australian households. Even with a substantial buffer in their budgets to absorb any rate rises, the added stress of margin calls and lower corporate bonuses are likely to be adding to the stress being experienced in these affluent markets.\





The number of margin calls are expected to increase as the year progresses, placing further pressure on upper end markets. With more owners placing their home on the market and fewer buyers, we may see cracks spread further through the inner city and coastal markets. Other markets that may be vulnerable are holiday home locations. As discretionary spending is wound back, the holiday home could be one of the first assets to be liquefied.

[ 本帖最后由 applenet 于 2008-4-18 22:59 编辑 ]

applenet

自己的帖子我自己顶,大家得鼓励一下我,还好继续哦!

pal2002

好帖，谢谢分享

lisacai

北风

好

patricb

Where can we find the details of the "top 50 growth suburbs around Australia"?:)

applenet

其实这个快速增长区数据每月都在PROPERTY INVESTMENT这类的杂志上有登, 但是我觉得短期看几个月没有特别意义, 我还是以DOMAIN的年度数字为准,比较有代表性. 这个只能说一些大面上的问题. 如增长区大部分集中在几大省城这些.

[ 本帖最后由 applenet 于 2008-4-21 13:37 编辑 ]

redsummer

真是个敬业又可爱的苹果版主,赞!

degra

苹果网好！

江上往来人

:si134

西门吹哨

不错的数据，现在买房子合适不？

applenet

谢谢大家鼓励啦！再接再励！

applenet

再谈一下我对快速增长区的理解。我觉得作为手头紧张并面临利率增长压力的TX们，不能光看这个快速增长区数字。是的，这个数字说明些问题，但是数字的产生往往滞后市场几个月，等你真去当地看了，也要根据某个房子的真正情况判断。好房子即使在增长成绩普通的地区也会托影而出（SORRY，中文忘得差不多了，怎么看都好象是错别字。。嘿嘿），反之亦然。

另外还要考虑数字的代表性，一方面，是不是最近房产少而其中豪宅成交比例大而卖价高造成的短期现象？要结合拍卖清出率和市场停留时间来一起分析；另一方面，个人认为，还是集中在自己比较熟悉的地区为开始，研究增长的动力是什么？交通改建？靠近海岸？煤矿开发（这个要特别注意，有时候是RUMOR造成的，有时侯煤矿开发只能维持１０年的项目时间，过了后这个小镇如果没有进一步市政投资的计划，以拓展其他行业，如旅游或者别的支撑其经济发展吸引外来人口的计划，那就简直是座死城，别说增长不会，租都租不出啊！）旁边的区增长后造成的辐射现象？所以要做的功课很多，不能以单一数字为基准。

Peggy

脱颖而出