新足迹

 找回密码
 注册

精华好帖回顾

· 新疆拉条子+辣炒鱿鱼+绿豆粥 (2008-11-13) 净心 · 冒个泡吧, 2016的几张 (2016-3-22) joy2joy
· 带你去寻找堪培拉的精彩生活!更新:来自中国国家博物馆的书画展Chinese Arts @ National Museum Australia (2018-6-6) seawater · **丝滑软糯冰皮月饼** (2007-9-2) 紫雪花
Advertisement
Advertisement
查看: 1592|回复: 6

[外汇债券] 中国政府在美国的房贷债券里也肯定亏了不少 [复制链接]

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2007-7-27 14:24 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
China shying from shaky US mortgage market
By Olivia Chung

HONG KONG - While China is eager to invest a portion of its US$1.33 trillion foreign-exchange reserve overseas, it is unlikely to take a chance on buying additional US mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as they are now considered too risky, Chinese economists said.

During a recent trip to Beijing, US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Alphonso Jackson tried to sell China on the idea of buying more MBS. Investing in MBS



offers better returns for China than US Treasury bonds, and at the same level of risk, Jackson claimed.

He called it a "win-win" situation in a statement released prior to his Beijing trip. "China has bought some mortgage-backed securities from us, but not in great numbers," Jackson said.

China held $414 billion in US Treasury bonds as of April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. And according to HUD's website, as of June 2006, China held $107.5 billion in MBS, up from $3 billion in 2003 and $100 million in 2002. Jackson was particularly keen to persuade China's central bank to buy more securities from the Government National Mortgage Association (known colloquially as Ginnie Mae), a mortgage association under HUD. (The figures include securities offered by Ginnie Mae, the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp, without providing a breakdown of each agency's holdings.)

"The Chinese economy is benefiting from high-yielding, safe investments in US mortgage-backed securities. Here at home, American homeowners are benefiting from lower interest rates on mortgage loans resulting from greater Chinese demand for these securities," Jackson said.

Jackson pressed his MBS case with People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan, Construction Minister Wang Guangtao, and officials of Chinese commercial banks. Without elaborating, Jackson said his department wants to sign a memorandum of understanding with Wang when the latter visits the US next month.

However, it promises to be a tough sell for Jackson. The Chinese government may decline the offer given the current surge in mortgage defaults in the US, Chinese economists said. Moreover, China has invested most of its foreign reserve funds in US-dollar assets and wants to diversify its investment.

To improve macroeconomic stability and reduce upward pressure on the yuan, China is setting up an investment agency called the State Investment Co (SIC) to oversee part of its foreign-exchange-reserve investments. While the SIC has yet to be officially launched, it made its first investment in May by spending $3 billion for a stake in the US private-equity firm the Blackstone Group.

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which manages the reserves, does not release figures for the proportion of foreign reserves held, but it is estimated that China holds about 70% of its foreign reserves in dollar assets, including treasury bonds.

Yi Xianrong, a senior economist and finance professor with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a central government think-tank, attributed the previous surge of mortgage-backed securities bought by Chinese companies to inexperience in conducting risk assessments and their miscalculation of the US property market.

"After seeing how the property prices in China kept soaring, these Chinese companies never thought of the US property market as having problems and they bought a lot of mortgage-backed securities, particularly in the past two years," Yi told Asia Times Online. "Apart from underestimating the level of risk, the better returns offered by MBS over US Treasury bonds also made the Chinese investors unable to judge the high risk of the US mortgage market."

He said subprime loans are one reason MBS investments are risky. Subprime loans are made at higher interest rates to people are considered bad or weak credit risks. They generally have interest rates at least 2-3 percentage points higher than prime loans.

Of the approximately $7 trillion worth of US mortgage securities, subprime loans currently account for about 15%. Thirteen percent of US mortgage delinquencies in the last quarter of 2006 were from subprime loans and about 30 mortgage companies have gone under in the past few months, Yi said. "There are significant financial losses," he said.

Yi said some bond ratings agencies that advise investors, including Chinese, also purposely played down the MBS risk. "Some ratings agencies slapped investment-grade ratings on mortgage-backed bonds that they knew they were risky," he charged.

Bond-rating agencies this month finally downgraded about $12 billion worth of subprime US mortgage securities, Yi said.

Economist Shi Weigan echoed Yi's comments. "With a possible burst in the housing bubble in the US, it's not the right choice for Beijing to spend foreign-exchange reserve funds on the US mortgage-backed securities," Shi said.
Happy Wife = Happy Life
Advertisement
Advertisement

发表于 2007-7-27 23:51 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 zhangcyer 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 zhangcyer 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
呵呵
看不太懂
老妖给翻译一下阿

发表于 2007-7-28 12:54 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 AU私募 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 AU私募 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
这个文章不是很地道:

1 MBS里有Subprime,也有高等级的,而且后者占的比例大约是85%左右,购买MBS不一定就等于购买Subprime的MBS

2 Safe的投资,就我的接触来说,还是比较稳健的;当然,有可能出现SB

3 易宪容这个2傻我就不多评价了,让丫露宿街头去吧,哈哈哈!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subprime只是糊弄投资者的一个名词罢了,真正的问题是CDO和CDs。。

发表于 2007-7-29 17:37 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 freshpoint 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 freshpoint 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
US subprime crisis is largely due to the aggressive underwriting practice and sudden downturn in property market...

CDOs structuers are packaging sub invesetmetn grade securities and selling it for AAA grade and leverage it up, of course it's going to blow up

发表于 2007-7-29 19:26 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 AU私募 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 AU私募 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 freshpoint 于 2007-7-29 16:37 发表
US subprime crisis is largely due to the aggressive underwriting practice and sudden downturn in property market...

CDOs structuers are packaging sub invesetmetn grade securities and selling it  ...


有点不准确,如果全是Sub Investment Grade的产品,那是肯定拿不到AAA的

要将HY与IG的混合打包再拿去评级,才能拿到AAA

穆迪和SP是混蛋,但是也没有混蛋到全是垃圾债券也能给AAA的地步。。

发表于 2007-7-29 19:35 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 红色 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 红色 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
一点都看不懂, 呵呵

反正美国这个金融泡沫总是要破滴
Advertisement
Advertisement

发表于 2007-7-29 20:50 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 freshpoint 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 freshpoint 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 AU私募 于 2007-7-29 18:26 发表


有点不准确,如果全是Sub Investment Grade的产品,那是肯定拿不到AAA的

要将HY与IG的混合打包再拿去评级,才能拿到AAA

穆迪和SP是混蛋,但是也没有混蛋到全是垃圾债券也能给AAA的地步。。


yup, it will include lots of IG assets.
however, CDO AAA is certainly not as solid as prime RMBS AAA.
it's all up to IB's structuring team to come up with a fancy idea to convince rating agencies.
the first CPDO had AAA rating but the pricing is very wide... over 100bps of spread.
at the end of the day, AAA is just a reflection of the credit risk profile of the bond, it's up to the trader to factor in other risks in the pricing.
must admit, Moody's and S&P's assumptions were not aggressive enough, Moody's  downgraded over 5 billion of subprime deals (S&Ps with over 10billion since they are more relaxed on their assumptions). thanks to Moody's relatively aggressive assumption, CDOs on Subprime bonds are not as bad. - in US, S&Ps loss assumptions were only half of Moody's, which is quite shocking...
but the main problems with some many hedge funds fallout were largely due to the super leverage positions - Bear is the first victim, there will be more to follow.
already seen two oz funds in trouble - basis & absolute due to their us subprime expo

发表回复

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

Advertisement
Advertisement
返回顶部