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Unemployment hits new 33-year low
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Australia's unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in almost 33 years as more people take part in the workforce than ever before.
The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 per cent in May, compared with 4.4 per cent in April, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed.
The result was the lowest reading since November 1974 when the then quarterly unemployment reading stood at four per cent.
Federal Treasurer Peter Costello says the Australian economy is now close to full employment.
Mr Costello said the country was entrenching low unemployment into the system but it was not clear yet how low the jobless rate could fall.
Grange Securities chief economist Stephen Roberts said the country's strong economy was driving the strong growth in employment, particularly in full time jobs.
Total employment rose 39,400 to 10.454 million, seasonally adjusted.
Economists had expected total employment to rise by 10,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4 per cent.
Full time employment increased by 66,800 to 7.530 million, while part-time employment fell 27,400 to 2.924 million.
The participation rate in May rose to a record high of 65 per cent, compared with an unrevised 64.9 per cent in April.
"Across the board, it's a very strong rise in employment," Mr Roberts said.
"It's very heavily concentrated in full-time employment.
"Mr Roberts said the strong growth in full-time employment and the high participation rate would likely put upward pressure on wages, fuelling inflation.
"It's another one of those pressure points there that mean we've certainly got an interest rate increase coming here ... it could be brought forward to perhaps August.
"I'm thinking more November."
He said that while inflation will likely fall in the short-term, any hint of rising inflation as a result of more strong economic results could trigger a rate rise.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior economist Michael Workman said the lowest unemployment rate in Australia in more than 30 years was indicative of an economy steaming ahead.
Mr Workman said the figures released on Thursday were very strong, and backed up Wednesday's strong gross domestic product (GDP) numbers.
"The GDP number really came into line with the employment figures ... we've had 18 months of pretty weak GDP numbers in a relative sense while the jobs market has performed exceptionally well.
"So now, finally, the GDP numbers are fully reflective of the main indicators in the economy which are jobs growth and the unemployment rate."
The unemployment rate fell below five per cent in all states for the first time in 30 years, with NSW recording the highest unemployment rate at 4.9 per cent.
Mr Workman said the state figures were an exceptionally good outcome.
HSBC chief economist Dr John Edwards said the lower unemployment rate could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates in July.
"I think the Reserve Bank will be very concerned by the astonishing increase in full-time jobs, that's (almost) 67,000 created in a month, which is quite astonishing, despite an increase in the participation rate," he said.
"This definitely raises the risk of the RBA tightening in July."
Dr Edwards said the central bank would be assessing inflationary risks, even though wage inflation is benign for now.
"The risk is, of course, if employment growth continues at this pace ... that will put pressure on wages."
Dr Edwards said strong consumer spending had created jobs in the services sector and driven employment growth.
ANZ head of Australian economics Tony Pearson said the labour force data showed the economy was red hot, yet had room for further growth.
"We believe growth will accelerate from here and we must now actively consider whether we will see an unemployment rate with a 'three' in front of it before year end," he said.
Mr Pearson said the strong economic growth and demand for labour would, however, put upward pressure on interest rates.
"The Reserve Bank has been resolutely on hold since November because of muted price and wage pressures. However, its confidence that this benign inflation story will last must now be beginning to waver given above trend economic growth and a demand for labour that shows no sign of waning.
"We remain of the view that it will be difficult for the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates this side of the Federal election, but continue to believe that another 25 basis points increase shortly after the election will be necessary as insurance against medium term inflationary risks." |
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