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偶尔看到了前几个月收到的一封邮件，和大家分享。 你又有什么理论和想法呢？拿出来晒晒。
This is an interesting article. http://www.smh.com.au/business/w ... 20120829-2510q.html
Many have been talking about the housing bubble for long while the bubble gets bigger and bigger. The RBA does not see a chance of popping. But if you ask around, more than 80% of people, local or international, would say it's too high.
Lower end properties in Sydney are changing hands very fast, less than a month if measured in time-on-market. The high end suffers. The clear reason is the cheap money is no longer there. So we are seeing median prices are coming down everywhere, but it is still hard to get into the market for those starters. The smallest apartment in Bondi came into sight. The great Australian dream has been slowly forgotten.
The big picture? Everything comes down to the mining! Is it going up or down? First of all, it is still very strong, the demands are still there. The price is off height, this is the fact. Another fact is the capital injection has cooled a lot. The event of BHP stopping Olympic Dame project was just the beginning. many people like to think the sector can not come down overnight with such a big capital overhead (the momentum theory). Others tend to stress the Domino effect seen in 2000 internet bubble burst and the US housing crash.
Confused? Yes, it is very confusing time. Glenn Stevens is "cautiously optimistic". He ruled out direct intervention to bring the Australian dollar down, although it was "a bit on the high side". Why? Because the high Australian dollar is also a cushion to any crash.
Comb through all the facts for the property market, some conclusions are almost certain:
1. Property price growing at the same rate as that in the past is no longer sustainable
2. High end properties will remain weak for some time to come
3. Property crash is unlikely especially in Sydney (it is a safe haven then)
4. Those positive-gearing properties in mining towns appear riskier, and the first few falls of such towns will certainly trigger panic.
5. The size of new developed properties tend to be smaller and smaller to partially address the affordability
6. Government will introduce more and more incentive policies and more and more consortiums will be formed to take the most benefits, not the consumers for sure.
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