中国经济增长放缓将使澳元疲软

一蹋糊涂

我认同三个观点，即澳元将由于中国经济放缓而受到压力，上海及中国东南沿海的房价将有大幅下跌，全球通涨压力将减轻，澳洲加息压力随之消失。

对策：沽澳元，矿业类股票，买澳洲长债

Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach believes the world should prepare for the increasing possibility of a meaningful slowdown of the Chinese economy. Here are the key points from Roach's May 23rd piece entitled "What if China Slows?":

Economic Growth

    * Supply-side numbers remain strong.
    * Re-acceleration of industrial output growth to 16.0% year-over-year (y-o-y) in April 2005.
    * Chinese GDP growth trajectory held at 9.5% in Q1 2005.
    * Momentum continues to be driven by surging Chinese exports.
    * Industrial output for exports estimated to have risen 29.9% y-o-y in April.
    * Chinese exports grew 32% y-o-y in April.
    * Fixed investment grew 26% this year through April.
    * While fixed investment growth is lower than the 40% comparisons of a year ago, they exceed the government’s official 16% growth target for the sector.
    * Fixed investment sector on track to exceed 50% of Chinese GDP this year.

Demand Side Shows Discomforting Signs

    * Evidence of a sharp slowdown in Chinese import growth.
    * From Jan-April 2005 y-o-y import growth was 13.5% versus 36% in all of 2004.
    * This has implications for the rest of the region, which provides China with capital equipment and intermediate inputs for its export businesses.

Chinese Import Growth Fuels Pan-Asian Exports

    * 20% of total exports from Korea, Taiwan, and Japan go to China (Singapore - 10%).
    * Slowdown in Chinese import growth is already affecting Asia.
    * In Taiwan, export growth slipped to just 1.2% y-o-y in Q1 2005.
    * Japan's exports showed a -0.8% q-o-q, annualized export decline in Q1 2005.
    * Hong Kong (+3.5% y-o-y in March), Korea (+7.4% in Q1 2005), and Singapore (+6.2% in March for non-oil domestic exports).
    * In all of the countries mentioned above, the latest export comparisons represent a sharp deceleration from gains six months ago, when the Chinese import boom was cresting.

China's Import Slowdown Affecting Commodity Inflation

    * This reflects China’s dominant role in driving world demand for industrial materials.
    * Morgan estimates that China accounted for 8% of global consumption of crude oil, 20% of aluminum, and 30-35% of steel, iron, and coal.
    * Deceleration of Chinese imports has been accompanied by a sharp deceleration of non-oil commodity inflation.
    * The Journal of Commerce composite index of industrial materials is now down 3% y-o-y through May 20. Peak increases of close to 35% in early 2004.
    * Commodity prices are one of the best real-time gauges of the interplay between global supply and demand.
    * Emergence of negative comparisons for industrial commodity prices could well be a good leading indicator of further weakness to come in Chinese industrial activity.

Efforts to Curb the Property Bubble

    * China's recent restraints on both supply and demand could finally lead to a bursting of coastal China’s property bubble.
    * This could also lead to a meaningful slowing of growth in fixed asset investment.
    * Fixed asset investment accounted for 44% of total Chinese GDP in 2004.
    * Fixed asset investment was still growing at a 26.5% y-o-y rate in April 2005.
    * Like exports, fixed asset investment is also accounting for about 11 percentage points of annualized Chinese GDP growth.
    * Every ten percentage points of slowing in residential property investment could knock about one percentage point off total Chinese GDP growth.

Chinese GDP Growth Risks

    * Externally-imposed constraints on exports.
    * Internally-imposed restraints on property investment.  

Roach Believes China's Policymakers will be Cautious

    * Could mean a delay on currency reform.
    * China’s new export taxes on textile products suggests that it may prefer tax policy over revaluation in order to restrain exports.
    * Despite China’s intentions to manage its export problems, the US, which accounts for about 33% of total Chinese exports, seems prepared to make changes themselves.

Key Deficiencies of China’s Growth Model

    * Excess reliance on exports and fixed investment.
    * With little private consumption, the Chinese economy is vulnerable to shortfalls in either of these sectors.
    * Private consumption accounts for only 42% of China's GDP.

Conclusion

    * Conceivable there could be a meaningful slowing of the Chinese economy.
    * It is likely to be driven by China’s internal measures as well as by anti-China actions.
    * If that occurs, China’s Asian supply chain should be especially hard hit.
    * A China slowdown could also result in further downward pressures on commodity prices of oil and non-oil industrial materials.
    * Could also temper inflationary expectations embedded in global bond markets.
    * If there is a delay in revaluation, pressure on the US dollar could be tempered.

Why Now

    * New and more difficult challenges today than before.
    * Property bubble is an increasingly worrisome source of internal instability.
    * The currency-export nexus has become an increasingly intractable source of external instability.
    * China faces growing pressures to make change.  

According to Roach:

    ....This time, it will be much tougher for China to avoid a meaningful slowdown.  It’s time for the rest of the world to prepare for just such a possibility.

wanderer

we haven't seen a real economic crisis for decades, the recent boom mostly has been contributed by China. We seems to have forgotten what an economic crisis is, hehe...

so what?

pay off all the debts as soon as possible, learn some forever demanding skills such as restauranting, farming....

I am joking, man.... hehe....