Sydney predictions by John Edwards (Residex)

黑山老妖

在别的地方看到的。转帖一下。

I listened to John Edwards (CEO of Residex) last weekend at the Property Expo and thought I'd post a summary of his thoughts for the Sydney market for the benefit of those here who didn't make it:

John's view is that NSW is in crisis with rising rents, affordability issues for home buyers, a national housing shortage and a state govt that doesn't possess the foresight to change things for the better.

He believes that we need some strategic long term thinking to solve this generational problem of affordability, and this includes focussing on regional NSW areas to stimulate activity as Sydney is becoming overloaded. He was talking transport improvements and tax incentives to businesses who may want to set up in regional areas.

Aust-wide statistics that he provided included:

2007- 19,000 dwellings shortage (with 41% of this in NSW alone)
2008- he's predicting a rise to 20,000 and climbing if our current situation remains the same.

Sydney's current median of $537,000 still out of reach for majority of first home buyers.

With an increasing population, his belief is that Sydney still has a supply that is out of balance and this shortage of housing stock will have an impact on both rents and prices in the near future. The current growth statistics suggest that the next growth cycle has already commenced for Sydney and that, by 2009, we should be averaging 7.2% annual cap growth. There is an upwards trend, but it is moderate.

His advice- though he did admit that he may be advocating this a little early (but time will soon tell) is that now may present good buying opportunities in Sydney, prior to his forecast of the next boom. With the stock market showing all the signs that it might now be approaching the end of it's "bull run", it may well be the time to re-evaluate the housing market for quality stock at fair prices.

hsktjy

好！另外，这位约翰 爱德华兹是地产权威？

Devil_Star

Oh, come on. Last time John Edward (Residex's CEO, not HSBC's chief econmoist who has the same names) said in mid 2005 in HSBC's Sydney seminar "the sydney's properties are picking up in late 2005" now he's just repeating what he said by rephrasing with new infos.

Think about what position he's on and you'll know why he said that again and again.
Don't get me wrong, i also think next property boom is coming soon, but i just dun know how soon, let me make my infallible prediction: 'Devil_Star said, the next property boom will come back to Sydney sooner or later. Tell me I am wrong, if it doesn't come true eventually.

bulaohu

屁股决定脑袋。John Edwards过往的言论一向是升升升，现在看来也没有改变。

黑山老妖

只不过是转帖一下。
大家自己判断。

我觉得他有conflict of interest，说的不要全信。

Devil_Star

嗯， 太明显了。他经常出席各类SEMINARS， 明给讲座， 暗作宣传。