讨论一下XAO的走向和预期

黑山老妖

现在的market基本上是fair priced。所以要看看它的走势。大家帮忙从TA角度来看看，这个proposed long term trend line画得是否正确。

如果正确那么以后几年如果没有太大问题应该会比较慢点但是不会跌得太厉害。

clickle

这个深钻下去是数值分析的范畴，
用最小二乘的相关函数对非线性问题作线性拟合，反过来则可以做线性插值把x坐标拉长。

这个问题起源于马歇尔的长线短线理论。科学不容置疑，解释却无甚大用。

袋鼠

我觉得图只能做短期走向猜测, 长期还是靠经济因素吧.

cn_yy

原帖由 袋鼠 于 2007-1-14 20:09 发表
我觉得图只能做短期走向猜测, 长期还是靠经济因素吧.

我赞成这个观点

PeterWay

期待xao上半年的下调,嘿嘿

cn_yy

我觉得澳洲的股票市场大跌的机会很少，主要是税务的法律倾向于投资到股票市场（主要是通过super）

黑山老妖

Actually, I have a few theories that might prove to be unorthodox.

1. The chart reflect the economy condition over the long term because over long term noises are filtered out.
2. The horde is the market. So the horde psych reflect the market pricing.
3. When enough people believe in something, it becomes the reality.

So using these hypothesis, I come to the conclusion that:
Over the long term, there are enough people believing in the past economical cycles and market pricing. This should hopefully continue unless there is some fundamental change to the market/economy as whole.