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原帖由 peterwei 于 2006-10-19 15:53 发表
老黑，那就是说现在不能买房子啦？
以下是这篇文章有关地产投资的部分：
Property frenzy
Safe as houses? Don't believe it. This rule could apply equally to all asset classes but it's particularly pertinent to residential property in a country in love with bricks and mortar.
The West Australian and Darwin property markets are going crazy at the moment, a sure sign that caution is warranted.
Four years ago Neil Jenman, property writer and consumer advocate, was recommending both markets, but no longer. "These are two places to avoid like the plague because people are going crazy," he says.
Three years ago Sydney and Melbourne were booming but the news from those cities today is more likely to be about rising numbers of distressed sales and repossessions. The same is inevitable in Perth for people who buy at the top of the cycle.
A tale of two cities, Sydney and Perth, could not be starker. According to figures from BIS Shrapnel, the median house price in Perth rose 34 per cent in the year to June compared with a fall of 1 per cent in Sydney, three years after the bubble burst.
Gross yields - that is, rental income as a percentage of house prices - on three-bedroom homes in Perth are 3.1 per cent, down from 5 per cent in 2001, a symptom of rising house prices. Jenman says anything below 5 per cent is a danger signal.
Yields in Sydney on three-bedroom homes are 2.7 per cent. Once interest and other costs are taken into account, Sydney property investors are earning a zero return on their investment.
Jenman says the two yardsticks to measure a property investment against are yield and affordability. "Buy when [gross] yields are above 7 per cent and the affordability factor is less than 20 per cent," he says.
Affordability is measured by taking the average mortgage payments as a percentage of the average wage.
National affordability is 33.2 per cent, or pretty unaffordable, compared with a reasonable 17.7 per cent in 1997 before the latest property mania took hold.
According to Jenman, the affordability factor in Sydney today is about 45 per cent, pricing many first home buyers out of the market. If you bought in 1997, take a bow. If you've just bought in Perth, fasten your seatbelts for a crash landing.
'You can do all the homework you like ... but if management are crooks you will be left holding the baby.' - Tony Lewis, Lewis Securities
'People think asking questions makes them look stupid. If you can't understand it, don't buy it.' - Greg Tanzer, ASIC
'Buy [property] when [gross] yields are above 7 per cent and the affordability factor is less than 20 per cent.' - Neil Jenman
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念亲恩征文 - 是时候说说我的外婆 (2008-8-12) hilltop-bear 
发表于 2006-10-19 16:23
