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失业率下降，恐致利率再次提高
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由于澳洲的一月份失业率意外下降，分析师认为此项数据，很可能促使RBA在下月加息。
一月的失业率由去年12月的5.5下降到了5.3。
http://www.theage.com.au/business/jobs-explosion-reignites-rates-risk-20100211-nthc.html
Update Australia's jobless rate fell in January, surprising analysts and adding to the likelihood that the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates next month.
The unemployment rate eased to 5.3 per cent in January from 5.5 per cent in December, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
What the economists say: experts' view
The economy added a massive 52,700 jobs - the most for any month in three years. About two-thirds of the total, or 36,900, were part-time positions.
Economists had expected the jobless rate to rise to 5.6 per cent, with 15,000 net jobs added by employers.
''Clearly it's another big surprise,'' said JP Morgan economist Stephen Walters. ''It looks pretty clear the jobless rate has peaked.''
A strong labour market underpins the growth of the economy but also raises the prospect of more rate rises in coming months as the central bank brings borrowing costs back to more normal levels.
The January drop marked three months of consecutive falls, bringing the jobless rate to its lowest since January.
Markets moved
The Australian dollar jumped on the jobs news as investors bet on an increased chance of another rate rise soon. It gained more than onel US cent to 88.9 US cents. Stocks advanced, too, bringing the day's increase to about 1 per cent in recent trading.
Interest rate futures also moved in the same way, with investors doubling their estimate of the likelihood of a rate rise on March 2 to an even-money wager.
The Reserve Bank surprised pundits this month by leaving its key interest rate at 3.75 per cent as it looked for further evidence of economic improvement.
The economy has now added about 190,000 jobs in the past five months, about the time the jobless rate reached 5.8 per cent. Last May, the federal government was tipping that unemployment might hit 8.5 per cent by the middle of this year, while some private economists predicted peaks above 9 per cent.
Even with the extra jobs, though, the total of registered unemployed people totals 444,600, or about 47,200 more than this time last year - when the jobless rate was 5 per cent.
Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard, meanwhile, said the government is sticking to its revised forecast that unemployment won't peak until June next year, at 6.75 per cent.
''Unemployment does tend to lag other economic indicators, which means you can continue to see unemployment to grow even as other economic indicators recover,'' Ms Gillard told reporters.
Rate views
Among key economic statistics, jobs figures have surprised on the high side consistently - in part because of the difficulty in picking the size of new part-time positions.
For 4Cast economist Michael Turner, though, the implication of the latest jobs figures for rates is clear.
"We could carbon copy the last three months' comments here - another massive surprise in Aussie employment," Mr Turner said.
"The question will be just how long the RBA can ignore the incredible strength in the Aussie labour market with wage pressures mounting through resource and construction sectors at least," he said.
JP Morgan's Walters, though, is less sure the RBA will pull the rates trigger in March on the jobs figures alone.
''I still suspect they'll take a couple of months here to pause and probably not tighten in March but will probably tighten in April," he said.
Michael Blythe, chief economist at the Commonwealth Bank, is among the more bullish economists, predicting the RBA will raise its key cash rate to 5 per cent by the year's end - equivalent to five quarter-point increases.
''We are not too far off what the experts tell us is full employment at the moment and it definitely starts to raise the issue of inflation risks building down the track,'' Mr Blythe told Reuters.
State by state
In New South Wales, the jobless rate dropped from 5.9 per cent to 5.6 per cent, seasonally adjusted, but Victoria's was flat at 5.3 per cent over the two-month period.
Queensland's unemployment rate tumbled from 5.9 per cent in December to 5.5 per cent in January, but in the fellow mining state of Western Australia, the jobless rate eased from 5.1 per cent to only 5 per cent.
South Australia's rate sank the most, sliding from 5.2 per cent in December to 4.4 per cent in January.
Tasmania's jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2 per cent.
The national participation rate was unchanged from a revised 65.3 per cent in December. |
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