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oliverzeno

Recently i set up a hedge fund, named Noz Macro Fund, with my partner to manage some money from close friends and family.

Please find below our Nov Letter, the formal one would be sent out after we have more index performance.

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We are again, having another satisfactory month in November, despite the fact that we took no positions at all for 10 days to complete an account restructuring that enables us to manage our clients’ money more efficiently and at a lower cost, through a complete order management system facilitated by IG Markets. NOZ macro fund, in November, up 7.67% net of all fees and expenses, beating all the indexes that we are benchmarked to, albeit less than in Oct.

For the AUM, we are pleased to announce that we have doubled our fund size in 2 months with both new fund flow and our intrinsic NAV growth.

Year end melt up, or just a melt through?

Since 3rd Quarter this year, there has been a lot of talks regarding a year end market melt up, possibly as a result of money managers herding behavior in terms of performance chasing, as well as the year end seasonality effect, which shows a strong tendency of market out-performance in 4Q and 1Q. However, in our humble opinion we think it might well be the case that this is going to be a year end of melt through within the current range, rather than an melt up.

Simply put, yes there may be a group of funds that underperformed the investment community and more importantly, their benchmarks; and also yes, that seasonality is working really well in 4Q. However, what is different this time is that we had already an unprecedented rally from March and the extent of rally makes it more prevailing a case, for those who are already in and deep in the money, to wrap their books up, and to take some good sleep, which they have not yet been able to since summer 2007(Provided they are dedicated enough to the money that they manage); And this will be so reasonably prevailing to make the effort of performance chasing and year end seasonality, relatively less impactful this time.

Please be noted, by saying that a melt up is less likely an outcome does not necessarily mean anything bearish; Contrarily, most likely we will see more of a high level rangy market from now till year end, which is the very pattern we are going to follow and to trade accordingly. To buy into the weakness caused by those who are not willing to suffer any potential pain of losing their winning stake, and to sell into those who are eager to put their cash to work, to get their feet wet so to prove to their investors of their existence.

For our investment strategies, we are still holding the view that Core Rate (Fed Fund, ECB and BOJ) are going to be kept at lower level, for a period longer than those who are calling an imminent exit but possibly shorter than the Economist’ consensus. Therefore, we will still be keen to find a better risk adjusted way to express our bearishness of both USD and JPY, even though we would like to be as patient as we can on the later one, not to go against the current strong up trend in Yen; meanwhile be as cautious as we could on the former one , by our thorough work of position sizing and trading, since it is so one-way and so crowded a trade this year.

Stock wise, we are still looking at building up our positions in growth consumption names in HK/China, very patiently since we do not have to rely on those names to be our main performance contributors. On the other hand, we are seeing this theme as the ONLY sustainable growth trend globally in the stock world so we would not be hesitant to pick them up once it shows its hand.

Fixed income front, we are relatively light since FX is really our bread and butter and we never forget for a second what Mr. David Einhorn told us, that to start from where you are having the edge, and we will stick to it. But we do want to point out to those who that are claiming JGB rates are not going to rise this time, as it did for the past two decades, that “GO Check out where Japan’s Household SAVING rate is now and used to be, first”.

Have a nice Christmas, to all.
Best Regards
Oz & Nz
Nov 30 2009

虽然在11月份中有长达10天的时间内，因为升级券商平台以及客户账户重组的原因，我们并未能够执行任何交易，但我们仍然取得了较为令人满意的投资成绩。本月与10月份相比，睿智全球宏观基金的净值增长了7.41%；从10月1日成立以来的两个月内，基金的净值增长了13.8%(净值均为除去管理费和表现费用后的数据)，相较于同期标普500的3.74%，摩根斯坦利亚洲综合指数的0.47%和Eureka全球宏观基金指数的3.64%。

同时，由于新资金的加入以及现有资金的内生增长，睿智宏观经济的管理资产在11月份内有了一倍的增加。

年末急升，还是盘整？

从第三季度开始，市场上就有有关今年年末将会出现一个急升行情的讨论；原因除了常见的季节性因素，即第四季度大部分年份内是个有利于股票市场的季度之外，还有对部分基金经理出于表现落后的压力进行年底追市的行为的预期。然而，在我们看来，更大的可能性是一个年末的盘整而并非急升。

简单的来说，我们不否认有一部分，甚至是不小的一部分基金今年至今的成绩落后于大市；同时，我们更不否认从统计数据的角度来看第四季度是一个风险偏好的季度。但今年可能会与过往不同的是，3月份至今全球市场的惊人的反弹；正是由于这样的反弹，以及关于前景的不同看法使得那些已经大有斩获的基金将会明智地选择退出市场获利观望。同时，我们认为这个趋势将会是主导市场的力量，从而使得那两个支持年末急升的因素显得相对微弱。

当然，这么说并不代表我们对于现在至年末的市场悲观；恰恰相反，我们认为市场将在10月份至今形成的一个高位区间内进行整固。这个盘整市也决定了我们在今年剩下的日子内的交易决策，即在这个既有的高位区间内进行交易，但市场的获利了解引起的下跌过多时买入且当市场被那些追求年末表现的投资者购买过高处卖出。

从宏观的角度来看，我们依然坚持核心利率(美元，欧元与日元)将在来年大部分时间内被维持在宽松的低位的看法；唯一的不同是，我们认为这个“大部分”时间长于那些急于鼓吹退出策略的经济学家，但稍短于现有的利率共识。因此我们将会在中长期的角度，继续寻找更好的风险可控的机会来表达我们对于美元与日元的悲观看法。

从微观的行业和股票的角度来看，我们依然认为大中国区的成长型的消费类股票是未来数年内全球范围内为数不多的一个可持续的盈利&利润增长的股票系列。因此，我们将会耐心的等待合适的入场机会，分批建立头寸。
固定收益方面，我们并没有很大的头寸，因为外汇和股指期货才是睿智宏观基金的主要关注产品；当然，我们想提醒那些认为“日本国债利率走高在过去20年内都没有发生现在也不会的”朋友，去关注一下现在日本国内的国民储蓄率。

多谢大家的支持，我们会继续努力。

圣诞快乐
睿智资本
2009.11.30

lyrixyang

Hey, you are back!

Good on you! Looking forward to your further good news!

(monkey35) (monkey35)