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本帖最后由 张凌赫三姨 于 2023-6-6 14:53 编辑
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RBA hikes rates again as inflation remains stubbornly high
Australia’s central bank has just delivered another blow to borrowers across the country as it hiked interest rates yet again.
On Tuesday afternoon, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the cash rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.10 per cent.
That’s a significant jump from the historic pandemic low of 0.1 per cent that Australians enjoyed for more than two years.
This marks the 12th time the bank has hiked rates since May last year and is the highest the cash rate has been for the past 11 years.
Mortgage owners have been hit with a 400 basis point hike in the space of a year in what has been hailed as the fastest tightening cycle on record, as inflation stays stubbornly high.
April 2023 has been the only exception, when the RBA briefly paused rates, giving mortgage holders a much-needed reprieve.
However, new data from the Bureau of Statistics found Australia’s inflation is still stubbornly high, sitting 6.8 per cent in the past 12 months ending April.
In a worrying trend, the RBA’s inflation target is to keep consumer price inflation between two to three per cent, which is clearly nowhere near current levels.
The RBA held its June meeting this Tuesday. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg
The RBA held its June meeting this Tuesday. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg
Financial comparison website Finder found that the rate hike will set Aussies back by an additional $1200 every month.
Aussies with an average loan size of $577,000 will be spending over $15,000 more per year on their mortgage compared to what they were in April last year.
That’s a “huge amount of extra money to be forking out on your mortgage,” Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said.
He warned that four out of five of Australians are reducing their spending to cope with rising costs
“The RBA’s latest hike is likely to push that (figure) closer to 100 per cent,” he added.
Homeowners have been hit with multiple rate rises in the past year. Picture: NCA Newswire / Gaye Gerard
Homeowners have been hit with multiple rate rises in the past year. Picture: NCA Newswire / Gaye Gerard
Some economists welcomed the move amid warnings that Australia’s inflation rate is much higher than it should be, after more than a year of mostly back-to-back interest rate rises.
Former senior RBA employee, Peter Tulip, now chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, said not only was a rate rise for June inevitable, it was also “desirable”.
“A front-loaded increase in interest rates will get the RBA closer to its unemployment and inflation targets quicker, so is desirable,” Dr Tulip said, per the AFR.
“If you don’t tighten enough, then you risk inflation expectations getting untethered. And hence, a big increase in unemployment later.”
Another economist, Warren Hogan from Judo Bank, warned that without some harsh measures now, Australia risked an economic resurgence in the middle half of this year, which would ultimately exacerbate inflation.
Penning an analysis piece in the newspaper, Mr Hogan said “The tightening cycle is petering out in 2023 and, rather than the lagging effects of previous rate hikes biting into economic activity, there is mounting evidence of a revival of economic activity in the middle of this year that will risk leaving monetary policy out of whack with the inflation risks our economy confronts.”
Indeed, PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said there were already signs that the housing market was picking up steam.
“The decision by the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate in May did not deter the current home price rebound, in fact it was the opposite,” she said.
“After five consecutive months of national home price growth, stronger market conditions are more pervasive, and price rises are more widespread.
“Strong demand relative to stock on market is seeing home prices lift, and offsetting the downward pressure from continued interest rate rises.”
RBAGovernor Philip Lowe held a meeting on Tuesday afternoon. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman
RBAGovernor Philip Lowe held a meeting on Tuesday afternoon. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman
The decision could come as a shock to some, with several of Australia’s largest banks and key economists convinced the peak cash rate had already been reached.
“The RBA continues to operate in the dark, as our panel of economists were split on the bank’s intentions,” Mr Cooke said.
Only 44 per cent of the panellists predicted the rate rise.
Experts were hopeful that June was also headed for another halt, providing the nation with a much-needed reprieve, but those hopes were dashed.
But higher than expected inflation figures from the Bureau of Statistics – which came in 6.8 per cent in the 12 months to April – coupled with the Fair Work Commission increasing the minimum wage, made many think a rate rise may be back on the cards.
The market expected such an occurence, with the odds being raised from below 10 per cent to 42 per cent.
Meanwhile, the CBA and Westpac both incorrectly predicted the peak interest rate Australians had to endure.
Both banks earmarked 3.85 per cent as the terminal rate, thinking another rise on Tuesday was unlikely.
The CBA forecast that the rate would be paused in June and by August next year it would be back down to 2.6 per cent while Westpac thought the rate would bottom out at 2.10 per cent in May next year.
NAB has called 4.10 per cent as the terminal rate, and thinks this will drop down to 3.10 per cent over the following 12 months.
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ANZ had the most dire forecast of all, predicting 4.35 per cent to be the terminal rate, which won’t be reached until August.
Phil O‘Donoghue, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, warned: “We now anticipate the likelihood of multiple rate hikes before the year‘s end. The only remaining uncertainty for us is when these hikes will take place”.
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发表于 2023-6-6 15:34
