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这个话题昨天在reddit r/australia有激烈的讨论。被关了。但评论好像还在？
https://www.reddit.com/r/austral ... _the_foot_with_its/
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level 1
Anuksukamon
·
1d
The amount of trade going through Macau never slowed down. Don’t underestimate the grey trade. For every supplier bleating about being hurt, others were business as usual.
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war-and-peace
·
1d
That just sounds like a cope article.
Apart from iron ore, China has many substitutes for Australian product (the french were the first to jump in to take market share away from our wines sold in china). This is unlike the Americans that have semiconductor patents etc.
From China's point of view, Australian imports only make up like 1% of their economy while our exports to them make up a larger part.
Both sides lose, it just seems like we lose more.
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level 2
ziddyzoo
·
1d
I think you’re mostly right - wine and lobsters are definitely dgaf imports as far as China’s concerned.
But there just isn’t an infinite amount of available seaborne iron ore and thermal and mellalurgical coal going around, and there’s no one that can flick a switch and replace Australia sized levels of exports overnight. And these are much more consequential…
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shtrak037
·
1d
By any measure, China's economy is much much larger (crude GDP measures something like 6 times larger).
Saying that China loses more is true, but it's like a battle where one side turns up outnumbering the other 5 to 1. Yeah, we might inflect a greater number of casualties, but that doesn't win any wars with those odds.
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MalcolmTurnbullshit
·
1d
It is completely a cope article. Just look at the bit about thermal coal.
Last week, thermal coal prices sat at three-year highs at around $US120 a tonne, way above last year's $US48 a tonne. It was a major factor in our burgeoning trade surplus.
Comparing to last year is weaselly as carbon energy prices dropped due to the effects of the pandemic. If you look at the price over the last 10-15 years then you'll see regular peaks and troughs in that range.
https://www.indexmundi.com/commo ... lian&months=120
And China hasn't even begun to fight. Imagine if they banned all exports to Australia. Not just Australia but the world has become dependent on China to manufacture most of the goods we consume. Having raw materials such as iron ore like Australia puts you on the bottom of the economic hierarchy.
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V8O
·
22h
In rough numbers, two thirds of Chinese iron ore imports come from Australia. The total exports of the next biggest exporter (Brazil) to all destinations are about half of what we export to China alone. China's own production is a bit less than Brazilian exports again. Most other exporters are too tiny to matter (we're talking 10 times smaller than Western Australia or smaller).
In other words, without Australian supply China runs out of iron ore.
This shouldn't need explaining, but the proportion of Chinese GDP that depends on them not running out of iron ore is greater than 1%. There is no "except for having no iron ore, my economy is doing great". That's like saying "apart from having no blood supply, I could live just fine without a heart".
If China made any moves towards Australia which affected iron ore trade, it would wreak havoc on their own economy... it would jeopardize their position as the global manufacturing hub, and the insane levels of infrastructure building they use to prop up domestic demand.
They're just chest pounding with wine and barley because that is pointless shit to them, and because they know full well that we won't be the ones to escalate this dispute to iron ore at any point either, because it's also too big for us.
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Justanaussie
·
1d
But we're not losing, that's the point of the article. Yes China applied horrendous tariffs on some industries, slowed down others and outright stopped still more but we're finding other markets, making up for shortfall through increased international prices (like coal) and for something like lobster we're going in the back door.
I know this sub can be a bit pessimistic at times but you got to celebrate the good stuff too.
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level 2
outbackqueen
·
1d
I honestly don't know why you are being upvoted.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/ ... 0210517-p57sjd.html
It must be a source of increasing frustration for China’s bureaucrats that its own economic successes are overwhelming their efforts to sanction Australia for our less than diplomatic commentary on the origins of the pandemic and China’s treatment of the Uighurs in the Xinjiang region.
While the sanctions on barley, wine, lobsters, coal and other products have bitten, they have been far more than offset by China’s insatiable demand for iron ore and LNG and the spiking prices – in iron ore’s case, soaring prices – of both.
If this is a trade war, Australia is winning its first phase quite handsomely.
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corbusierabusier
·
1d
Meh, at the very worst some parts of the Australian economy won't see much growth. That's probably not going to have much impact though because in reality, there are no serious alternatives to Australian iron ore. Stuff like wine is not going to result in the Australian industry going broke, as the Chinese drive up the price of French wine a lot of other markets will look for quality alternatives.
Beyond average Australians, do you know who really stands to lose from trade disputes with China? A few specific business owners. I would wager that a lot of the doomsayers in the media are merely reflecting the views of many in the business community.
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nicolas42
·
1d
Yeah you're right i think.
35% of our exports go to China (Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity). ~$100 billion
2% of China's exports go to Autralia (~$50 billion)
China's economy is about 20 times the size of Australia's (CIA world factbook) comparing gdps
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level 2
SnoweCat7
·
1d
Well the point is if France takes market share in China away from Australia that leaves a gap somewhere else in the world that Australia can fill. That is exactly what has been happening.
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level 2
sho666
·
20h
That just sounds like a cope article.
without bothering to read it, im going to agree, our economy relies on them far more than they rely on us
our wine industy got rolled, or barley indusrty got rolled
and guess what, its not like the chinese arent buying those things anymore, theyre just buying American barley and NZ wine instead
its total copium
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IcyRik14
·
20h
Did you even read the article ?
It’s like “ I don’t want to believe this so I’ll just deny it “
And I can see you got plenty of upvotes
The bit you don’t get is that they trade we miss with China we sell elsewhere.
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hear_the_thunder
·
1d
Hugz
Stay tune for the Sky News Australia Youtube video:
"Super Strong & Hyper Masculine PM the Honourable Scott Morrison destroys Feminism & China with this one statement."
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ShareYourIdeaWithMe
·
1d
We might not be landing much coal in China. But as China scrambles to source energy elsewhere, Australian product is filling the gaps.
That's what happens with trade. It's a merry-go-round.
...
Last December, as barley farmers were reeling from the loss of market, wheat farmers cashed in, sending almost 800,000 tonnes to China.
Meanwhile, barley exports to Thailand and Vietnam are expected to double this year.
How much of that then finds its way to China is anyone's guess as enterprising entrepreneurs find ways to circumvent the bans.
Take the lobster trade for example. Hong Kong, which previously bought only meagre amounts of our crustaceans, suddenly is gorging on Australian lobster like never before.
It is highly likely that well-heeled members of Beijing's ruling class merely have found a way to get their favourite delicacy back on the menu via what's known as the "grey trade", where a Hong Kong middleman buys from Australia and then exports to China.
This is what I've been saying - we are exporting commodities - that is, the market treats instances of the good as equivalent or nearly so with no regard to who produced them. So it'll be very difficult for China to hurt us. The same goods just get redirected to other customers.
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level 2
HARRY_FOR_KING
·
1d
Redirected to other customers who sneak it through China's corrupt beurocracy, making a profit off being middle-men.
China gets to pay a premium for the a third country to take a cut.
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level 2
ObserveAndListen
·
1d
This is the reality.
Not many people understand that this is how the world works and just spew rubbish the media pushes out “America is taking all of our trade”.
Oh no we are going to go to war with China, blah blah blah.
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TPPA_Corporate_Thief
·
1d
·
edited 18h
where a Hong Kong middleman buys from Australia and then exports to China.
Spoken in Aussie Farmer: "These f@*king Hong Kong middlemen may become like Australian union workers and an impediment to my profit. I could make more money by sharing my capital with fellow Australian workers. It would result in more value-added manufacturing jobs that will employ more people and be better for the Australian economy but I would rather focus on these Hong Kongers that will still cut into my wholesale unmanufactured profits. F*rken c*nts!"
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roadwookie
·
1d
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level 1
SeaworthinessSad7300
·
19h
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【折腾后院之三】DIY 砌水泥砖菜床，铺砖，再次更新（deck做好基本完工） (2018-8-26) 凡戈 
发表于 2021-6-7 12:36
