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一
首先介绍成立于2011年的有学术背景的澳洲网上独立新媒体《对话》，我很喜欢他们对自己的定位：致力于对话，兼顾学术和新闻两重性。
https://theconversation.com/fear ... nomic-impact-130780
翻译了他们的关于新型冠状病毒的经济影响的评论文章。
One way to count the cost of the Wuhan coronavirus is by how many people catch it, and then how many die. Another is the direct financial costs of public health measures to treat those infected and contain its spread.
Yet another is the wider economic cost. But how to calculate this?
Some suggest a neglible impact on the global economy if the death toll is less or similar to the SARS outbreak in 2002-03.
计算武汉的冠状病毒的危害，一种方法是看有多少人得了病，多少人因此死亡；另一种是合计医治和控制传染病的直接的公共卫生支出。可是更广义的经济成本该怎么算呢？有种意见说，假如死亡人数类似或小于2002-2003的SARS，本次病毒爆发对世界经济带来的影响小到可以忽略不计。
But the economic impact is not directly tied to the number of people who get sick (morbidity) or die (mortality). It almost wholly depends on the indirect effects of the decisions that many millions of individuals make to minimise their chance of catching the virus, and the decision of governments on how to react to the threat.
This means the Wuhan outbreak could directly affect relatively few people, compared to past pandemics, yet still pack an intense punch in a more interconnected global economy.
但经济影响并不仅仅同得病和死亡的人数有关。成千上万个人为了减小感染风险而做出的每一个决定以及政府应对传染病威胁时的决定总合起来间接地影响了经济。这意味着同以往的全球性流行病相比，直接受到这次武汉传染病爆发影响的人数量也许不算大，却还是重击了更加紧密结合的全球经济。
Learning from SARS SARS经验
We can draw lessons from the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) experience, the first epidemic of the 21st century.
我们可以从人类在21世纪的第一次流行病SARS获得一些教训。
SARS was another coronavirus. As the Wuhan virus emerged in late December from an animal market, SARS originated from animal markets in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong in November 2002.
SARS爆发也是因为冠状病毒，正如武汉的病毒在去年12月被发现来源于一个动物市场，SARS病毒一样在2002年起源于位于中国南部广东省的动物市场。
Zoonotic epidemics – diseases emerging from animal hosts – are not new. But they are becoming more common with closer proximity between wild animals, domesticated animals and people; and they spread more rapidly due to increased movements of people within and between countries. Their economic risk is also likely to increase.
源于动物的传染病并不新鲜，却随着人类越来越接近野生动物和畜养动物变得更加常见，也因为人员的国内和国际间流动而传播得更快速。因此造成的经济风险也会加大。
SARS spread to infect individuals across 26 countries in a matter of weeks. Fortunately it was then contained relatively rapidly. Ultimately about 8,500 people caught it. The mortality rate was about 11% with fewer than a thousand deaths.
SARS在几周内就传到26个国家，幸运的是，之后相对迅速地得到了控制。最终，一共感染了8500人，近千人死亡，死亡率约达11%。
The SARS outbreak was, of course, devastating to its victims and their families. But its public-health impacts were relatively limited and short-lived. It nonetheless had significant economic impacts. Though fewer than 10,000 people were directly infected, tens of millions of individuals changed their behaviour out of fear of catching the virus.
SARS给受感染的病人以及家庭带来了毁灭性的影响。但它对于公共卫生的影响却没那么大而且很快就过去了，即使这样，它还是沉重打击了经济。尽管只有不到万人直接受传染，成千上万的人们因为害怕病毒而改变了行为模式。
Overestimating risks 夸大风险
These behavioural changes were partly driven by government directives, but more importantly by personal judgments about risks.
这些行为改变部分因为政府导向，但更多因为个人对风险的评判。
Behavioural studies suggest individuals typically overestimatethe risks that are memorable, vivid or generate fear, while underestimating more common risks. Thus shark attacks are feared more than traffic accidents.
行为学研究表明，人们往往低估寻常的风险，而高估那些记忆深刻，生动而引起恐慌的（突发事件带来的）风险。这就是为什么比起（发生率更高的）交通事故，人们更害怕受到（发生概率很小的）鲨鱼袭击。
（有关烦恼，焦虑和恐惧方面的阅读可以看之前文章介绍，还有这篇焦虑的家长有焦虑的孩子。）
In a survey of 705 people in Hong Kong at the height of the SARS epidemic, 23% of respondents feared they were likely to become infected with SARS. The actual infection rate was only 0.0026%. In the US, where 29 people were infected and no one died, 16% of survey respondents felt they or their family were likely to get infected with SARS.
在一项SARS高峰期针对705名香港人的调查中，23%受访者害怕自己可能感染，而最后实际的感染比例是0.0026%。在美国一共有29人感染，无人死亡，但16%受访者表示自己或家人有可能被感染。
Such fears led to observed economic effects. Disproportionately affected were leisure venues (restaurants, cinemas, bars and clubs) and businesses associated with domestic and international tourism.
这些恐慌造成了可见的经济后果。餐厅，影院，酒吧的娱乐场所首当其冲，连同国内、国际旅游相关生意都受到比其他行业大得多的影响。
The economies of China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan were hardest hit. At the height of the epidemic, international visitor arrivals fell dramatically in these four countries. According to World Bank research, GDP losses to these countries amounted to US$13 billion In Beijing, the losses to the tourism sector were estimated to be 300 times the direct cost of medical treatment for SARS in the city.
中国，香港，新加坡和台湾的经济受灾最严重。非典最严重时期，四个地区的国际旅客急剧下降。根据世界银行的研究，合计GDP损失达到130亿美金。而在北京，旅游业的损失是SARS直接医疗支出的300倍。
Panic is easy to spread 容易传染的恐慌
A complete tally of the cost of SARS has never been undertaken, but what we do know about the SARS experience is most likely a good guide to what the costs of the Wuhan outbreak might be. It will be the reactions of governments and individuals to the perceived threat of the virus, and not the virus itself, that will have the biggest economic costs.
虽然没有完整的SARS经济损失报告，但从我们知道的SARS的经验可以推演目前武汉的病毒爆发对经济的可能影响。抗击病毒最大的经济支出并不来自病毒本身，而是政府和个体对预期病毒风险的应对。
The Chinese government has imposed a mandatory curfew on more than 30 million people. It’s possible hundreds of millions more are changing their plans willingly or because they are being instructed to do so.
中国政府对大约三千万人口实施了旅行禁令。也许有几亿的人自愿或被要求改变了行动计划。
Examples include Hong Kong and other countries now hesitating to allow in Chinese tourists, and citizens of other nations being advised to avoid travelling to China. The US Centers for Disease Control, for example, has recommended against all non-essential travel to China, including areas far from Wuhan.
比如，香港和其他国家目前对于接受中国游客有顾虑，很多国家建议公民不要去中国旅行。美国疾病控制中心建议取消所有非必要的去往整个中国的旅行，包括离武汉很远的地方。
We do not yet know enough about the virulence of this coronavirus, though the preliminary evidence suggests its mortality rate is much lower than that of SARS.
尽管我们还没有足够了解这个冠状病毒的毒性，但初级证据表明死亡率远低于SARS。
But with social media, panics can also spread more rapidly and further. All signs point to a global overreaction to this crisis, and therefore to an amplified economic impact. Even highly reputable media outlets such as The New York Times have not proven immune to sensationalism, promoting stories with dramatic headlines such as “Alarm Grows as Markets Tumble and Death Toll Rises”.
但社交媒体增强了恐慌传播的速度和广度。所有迹象表明，全世界都过度反应了，这必将导致放大的经济影响。即使有很高声望的《纽约时报》也不可避免地情绪化地用了抓眼球的戏剧化标题：“警钟长鸣：死亡增加，市场崩塌！”
We should all, therefore, rely as much as possible on verifiable information. Preventing the contagious spread of inaccurate and exaggerated information comes a close second to our responsibilities to prevent the spread of the virus itself.
在这样的情况下，我们所有人都要尽可能依靠经得起检验的消息。每个人有责任在防止病毒传播之外，紧要防止不准确的夸大的消息的传播。
二
联邦卫生部
联邦卫生部1月30日早晨发布情况报告再次确认澳大利亚人非常警惕事态的发展，并且We are very well prepared准备工作做得很好。
新州卫生部
首席医疗官Dr Kerry Chant 继续每日新闻发布会，对有更多民众主动前往就医测试表示欢迎，也很高兴有50例检测阴性。她感谢媒体成功将相关消息传达给民众，同时呼吁民众“seek reliable sources寻求可靠的信息。” 视频油管地址如下：
https://youtu.be/UjxFQh04wp8
四例确诊，20例待确认，50例确诊未受感染。
其中四例确认病人中，53岁和35岁的两名男子已经痊愈出院。21岁女性和43岁男性继续就医。根据隐私政策，我们不会公布患者就医的医院地址。
以上内容也很快被翻译成中文，官网地址如下，请朋友们随时查看。
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/pages/2020-nsw-health.aspx
三
今天没有很多意料之外的变化，澳洲本地情况其实是证明的。中国的情况也在预计中。一些航空公司决定停飞中国大陆，我觉得更多的是成本考虑，老话叫“跌一跤坐一坐。”
大家的焦点在于总理昨天宣布撤侨将被送到圣诞岛，ABC用了哗众取宠的标题“我们不是罪犯！”。新西兰女总理一向人性化，又收获很多赞！
媒体一贯唯恐天下不乱，9频道报道悉尼北部海滩两位母亲从网上吵吵升级到当面动手，一方被打翻在地短暂昏迷。 据说是妈妈群的华人，脸红啊！
但微信朋友圈还是亮点不少：
为加拿大约克市教育局点赞！可惜没有在新州更改开学公告前流传，不知道两位部长有没有一点不安？而这种事情往往不可避免滑向不可收拾，要求全面停课的请愿人数已经近七万。
一位朋友在朋友圈说：“人与人的区别，差距，不在歌舞升平里，不在和谐祥和里，只有在困苦和遇难时才能显现得淋漓尽致。”
每个人都有不同的信念，不同的处境，还是引用朋友的话：“以前外婆总说：前半夜想想别人，后半夜想想自己。她没有受过高等教育，但这么简单的道理，都懂吧！”
共勉！
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如果爱情，甚至婚姻都可以被拿来当作筹码（54楼更新/58楼完结） (2007-6-26) jyy_jessie 
发表于 2020-1-31 08:32
