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Fall 2005: Booming housing market halts abruptly; from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide drop 3.3 percent.[110]
2006
2006: Commerzbank begins to stop building its massive subprime position[111]
Early: AIG gets scared and stops selling credit protection against CDOs. The Monolines (AMBAC, MBIA) continue to sell, though.[112][113]
May: The subprime lender Ameriquest announces it will cut 3,800 jobs, close its 229 retail branches and rely instead on the Web.[114]
May: Merit Financial Inc, based in Kirkland, Washington, files for bankruptcy and closes its doors, firing all but 80 of its 410 employees; Merit’s marketplace decline about 40% and sales are not bringing in enough revenue to support overhead.[88]
Mayish: Merrill Lynch fires Jeff Kronthal, who had formerly worked under Lew Ranieri at Salomon Brothers, and his team, because they made a presentation outlining the risks of the mortgage CDO market.[115]
Middle: Merrill Lynch CDO sales department has trouble selling the super senior tranche of its CDOs. Instead, it sets up a group within Merrill to buy the tranches so that the sales group can keep making bonuses.[113]
Middle: Magnetar Capital starts creating CDOs to fail on purpose, so that it can profit from the insurance (credit default swaps) it has bought against their failure. Their program is so large that it helps extend the credit bubble into 2007, thus making the crash worse.[116]
August: U.S. Home Construction Index is down over 40% as of mid-August 2006 compared to a year earlier.[117]
September 7: Nouriel Roubini warns the International Monetary Fund about a coming US housing bust, mortgage-backed securities failures, bank failures, and a recession. His work was based partly on his study of recent economic crises in Russia (1998), Argentina (2000), Mexico (1994), and Asia (1997)[118]
Fall 2006 J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon directs the firm to reduce its exposure to subprime mortgages.[20]
December 2006 Goldman-Sachs claims after the fact that it began reducing its exposure to subprime mortgages at this point. It also begins betting against the housing market, while continuing to sell CDOs to its clients. Others claim these risk decisions were made in the spring and summer 2007.[20][119]
长话短说：
1、美国房地产在05年底突然停顿，连续数月没涨（微跌），接着情况便急转直下。（似曾相识？）
2、房产停涨，不少银行会加紧收缩贷款（似曾相识？）。许多人认为08年次贷危机前银行没采取任何措施，其实是不对的，人家06年就开始打预防针了。更有先知先觉的05年就动了手。自己查timeline
3、保险公司人事会有很大动静（似曾相识？），而且为了揽钱可能会加大自身宣传发售新的保险产品。这样先搞点钱过来，危机来的时候才有钱赔给别人。
4、 有些高风险银行会开除员工，转为纯网银运行节省成本（似曾相识？）
5、风控团队被莫名开除，文中说原因是风控阻碍lender继续发贷挣钱结果被搞掉了。但还有一种情况是，管理层明知风险，但只能仰赖风控团队提供证据才能采取行动。如果风控无力，管理层就只好换新人。（这个察觉到的不多，但正在发生）
6、建筑业会萎缩很快，显然不是入行的时候。
7、 部分机构会有计划地做空房地产金融衍生物。为了做空尽快生效，他们会利用媒体宣传。。。
另外，你不能指望历史能精确的重复自己，只能借鉴下而已。不过借鉴以后你总能吓一跳。
我觉得接下来大家应该看07年代timeline了。
07年大事儿很多，很多银行都出了问题。仅HSBC就损失百亿，这货前段时间还在说澳洲没泡沫。。。整个一年地产都在跌，不过，股市却还没有太大动静。今天先到这里，回头再看。 |
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◆◆ 我 的 训 狗 小 心 得,仅 供 参 考 喔 ◆◆ (2007-5-9) babypanjing 
发表于 2017-7-22 21:05
