都说房子再降，可我发现。。。

老猫

都说房子再降，可我发现。。。

半年前我猛看过一些房。这几天又关注了一下，发现eastwood,epping等的房子报价涨了5万左右。很多半年前700至750K的，同档次的现在750K至800K.  不知大家有何感觉。悉尼真抗迭。

lovecelery

根本就没跌, 50万以下的房子, 更加是hot啊, 价钱坚挺还被抢高了不少.  我看的是burwood.

meibu

原帖由 lovecelery 于 2008-12-12 13:51 发表
根本就没跌, 50万以下的房子, 更加是hot啊, 价钱坚挺还被抢高了不少.  我看的是burwood.

条野太郎

epping以后交通方便啊, 当然不会跌多少了

fiji

1.墨尔本本来房子少
2.有钱人多，最起码可以顶个3-5年，除非经济5年内持续衰退
3.政府这次补贴很多
4.第一批撑不住的已经卖掉了，目前留下的全是能够顶住的，不降价
5.利息一再下降，需要贴的钱越来越少了，没有压力有不急着买了

[ 本帖最后由 fiji 于 2008-12-12 15:32 编辑 ]

zn7726

投资的人, 现在很可能都已经正现金流了(尤其是低价unit, 利率一个劲的降), 更不着急卖了.

黑山老妖

如果房租跌了可能就会有人卖了。

abc07

关注的50万以内的房子,全部在涨价,没有一套跌价的, 晕!

feiye

the house has been on market for over half an year still not sold?

Crazynumber

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-12-12 16:22 发表
如果房租跌了可能就会有人卖了。

老妖，此话怎将？

youderen

austral

想想现在我们单位有一半没房的年轻人突然都想买首房了。。。这大概也反映了一个大趋势，就该知道市场为什么会是那么坚挺了。
眼下这个市场，正源于年轻一代的强烈兴奋和激动，应该会是相对坚挺和持久点，对不对啊？

[ 本帖最后由 austral 于 2008-12-12 20:52 编辑 ]

funfun

全在信心。都不着急，失业率没起来之前，都不是真正的考验

DY668

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-12-12 16:22 发表
如果房租跌了可能就会有人卖了。

How would rent go down if there are so many renters in current market? If there are less renters, that would mean they would have bought the property, which would stimulate the property price up. That is what happened in last property boom around year 2001.

DY668

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-12-12 16:22 发表
如果房租跌了可能就会有人卖了。

How would rent go down if there are so many renters in current market? If there are less renters, that would mean they would have bought the property, which would stimulate the property price up. That is what happened in last property boom around year 2001.

kingsford

原帖由 DY668 于 2008-12-12 21:09 发表

How would rent go down if there are so many renters in current market? If there are less renters, that would mean they would have bought the property, which would stimulate the property price up. Th ...

Because when the economic situation worsens:
1. person per house will increase.  now it is 2.6 (a historical low), a slight increase in that number will blow the so called "under-supply". During the great depression, 6-7 people in a single house is normal.
2. people move to the countryside because they can't find work in the cities anyway. (Just like now, the inner city vacancy rates increase first. Sydney CBD (2000)'s vacancy rate jumped from 4% to 5.3% in Oct. Nov. figure is not out yet. But I suspect it will continue to rise.)
3. people even leave the country. .. heard of Melbourne population collapse?

[ 本帖最后由 kingsford 于 2008-12-12 22:00 编辑 ]

DY668

Let us wait and see then.  By the way, I have an investment house in Kingsford.

wil

老P

下去了就要死在半路中的俯卧撑吧。。。

黑山老妖

原帖由 Crazynumber 于 12/12/2008 20:02 发表
老妖，此话怎将？

失业率高了，大家都往便宜的地方搬或是合租。空置率就上升了，房租就跌下来了。

pal2002

谁不想住自己的房子，多一个房间总是好的，所以需求永远是大大的。。。
没钱的时候可以合租，可以搬回家，所以房子永远是够用的。。。

rosyywu1

Because when the economic situation worsens:
1. person per house will increase.  now it is 2.6 (a historical low), a slight increase in that number will blow the so called "under-supply". During the great depression, 6-7 people in a single house is normal.
--以前有人讨论过这个问题。看per house数据还要看以前和现在的房屋尺寸．很多的老房子已经被sub-divided了．比方同样的土地上一房变成了两房，也就是两个家庭单元．那么按照平均值来计算，同样土地上的person per land(same land)数据就应该更正为5.2, 这就未必是历史最低．就我观察，以前老房子土地都很大，现在能在城周围找到土地面积上1000的都不容易．
－－另外就是现在的单元家庭人数少过几十年前．现在单身，结婚无孩或者少孩的家庭数量大大超过以前．二战后babyboomer这代人一家多孩的情况是很普遍的，这也是这个词的来源．一般家庭居住都是以本家庭为一个单元，很少会出现一个单元两个家庭的情况．单纯地以person per house数据的大小来说明问题是把复杂问题简单化了．

2. people move to the countryside because they can't find work in the cities anyway. (Just like now, the inner city vacancy rates increase first. Sydney CBD (2000)'s vacancy rate jumped from 4% to 5.3% in Oct. Nov. figure is not out yet. But I suspect it will continue to rise.)
－－你会吗？我是不会．如果我到了那天没有工作了，我会继续住在城市里面．至少这里我可以找到朋友，我可以慢慢等待经济复苏．真困难了，我吃救济，和很多人挤在一间房里．我去农村，那里没有房子（大家都去了，自然没有房子住），我自己没有土地不能种庄稼，买个东西也不方便（自然是穷得没有车了，也买不起油了），我怎么生活．不会是去bush过日子吧．
－－有人就这几个月的空置率的上升做了解释．很大的原因是学生假期．

3. people even leave the country. .. heard of Melbourne population collapse?
－－到哪里去呢？我是澳大利亚公民，到别的地方去？回中国？不说到时候中国的日子是不是就比澳大利亚好过，就是我要回去，这些花费和每三个月一出境再入境我就折腾不起．如果你有孩子呢？不能说因为短期的困难就逃走掉了吧．

看问题要多方面分析．不能停留在表面结论上吧．

[ 本帖最后由 rosyywu1 于 2008-12-14 17:27 编辑 ]

rosyywu1

我们分析数据得出结论，不能因为自己偏重于某个结论而忽略分析过程中的公正性．我不能说，我喜欢Ａ结果，就硬将到手的数据扭成我要的结果吧．

做研究最重要的一点就是分析结果的时候不要带有偏坦心理．下每一个结论，都反复推敲，这个结论下的是不是仓促．是不是真的就是接近事实真象？就比方上面反驳你的论点．假设我是个门外汉，向你讨教，你给我你上面的结论．那我要是如上那么反驳你，你如何回答？

ＢＴＷ，　我上面的反驳只是就事论事，我没有下任何结论．

wil

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-12-13 23:05 发表

失业率高了，大家都往便宜的地方搬或是合租。空置率就上升了，房租就跌下来了。

可能会往外圈移，但应该不会彻底脱离city，毕竟city内圈提供更多的就业机会，这样的结果就是内圈租金下降，外圈租金上涨。

关于合租，比如原来一个房子住3人，现在住6人，这个房子整体租金一定是涨的，这很矛盾，大家挤到一起抬高占据房租，空出空房减低空房房租？

除非是离开州或国家，这个问题我甚至都考虑过，放眼望去，哪个国家更适合进入发展则是另一个话题了。

rosyywu1

Wil的结论很有趣．如果大家到时候都到城市外圈，那里房租增加（有限房源，突增人口），慢慢地赶上或超过内圈，那人流又会渐渐往内圈回流．这是很自然的，因为毕竟外圈交通，信息，生活，打工等方面都不如内圈方便．不要忘记，打工去还得坐车吧，交通费用也不是很便宜的说．慢慢地，内圈又开始增加．达到一个动态平衡．
我同意ＷＩＬ关于合租的设想．估计到时候，哪个房东免费提供做饭洗衣打扫卫生，大家都去他那里住吧．哈哈
除非有一种情况，那就是大家都去住帐篷．哈哈．都去公园支个帐篷，免费用公园的水和电．这个情况不是不可能，在美国就有．不过，要真到这个时候，大家都一起找根绳吊死算了．

andrewliu1978

明年上半年会是对澳洲经济考验的时刻
看失业率，薪资变化趋势

wil

原帖由 wil 于 2008-12-14 17:27 发表


可能会往外圈移，但应该不会彻底脱离city，毕竟city内圈提供更多的就业机会，这样的结果就是内圈租金下降，外圈租金上涨。

Rents tumble in inner Sydney
Jessica Irvine Economics Writer
December 6, 2008



RENTS on apartments across the lower North Shore and eastern suburbs are tumbling as the finance sector sheds jobs, existing renters reach breaking point and lower interest rates make buying a property more attractive.

The median rent on a one-bedroom apartment in Kirribilli and Milsons Point fell 15.9 per cent in the three months to the end of September, official figures from NSW Housing show.

Double-digit quarterly rental price falls were also recorded for two-bedroom units in Lavender Bay, McMahons Point and North Sydney and, to the east, in Bondi Junction, Bronte and Waverley.

Kirribilli and Milsons Point was the only Sydney postcode to record an annual decline in apartment rents over the year to September. "We believe this is due to the large number of expatriates who have been relocated back to their original countries, as well as a surge of corporate redundancies," said Keris Hodge, the director of the Cremorne-based rental agency, The Apartment Service.

An economist at Commonwealth Bank, Michael Workman, said job losses in Sydney's finance, property, legal and accounting industries had reduced demand for rental properties in the inner suburbs, while supply had remained constant. "Now that demand conditions are weak, renters are in a much stronger position to argue for no rent increases," he said.

The managing director of SQM Research, Louis Christopher, said landlords had stretched renters to breaking point, despite rising vacancy rates in inner Sydney.

Renters were also taking a more cautious approach to budgeting. "In the middle and upper end of the rental market it is very discretionary, and in these uncertain economic times, if they can, they choose a $500-a-week rental property as opposed to an $800 to $1000 one."

As interest rates fell, and more young people took advantage of a temporary doubling in the first home buyers grant, the number of potential renters would fall, Mr Christopher said, tipping that rents would continue to drop in affluent areas of the inner city next year.

But renters in outer suburban areas are feeling the pinch. The figures show double-digit rent rises on houses continued in the September quarter in Fairfield, Concord and Rhodes.

An agent at Deborah Richardson Real Estate, Stacey Rohan, said properties on the lower North Shore which used to be rented in one weekend, were now staying on the market for an average of three weeks, with landlords forced to drop rents by at least $20 a week to attract tenants. "It's probably a lot cheaper than it has been."

rosyywu1

谢谢wil提供的信息

Crazynumber

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-12-13 23:05 发表

失业率高了，大家都往便宜的地方搬或是合租。空置率就上升了，房租就跌下来了。

哦明白了，是不是说房租下跌了，房价就该跌啦:si79

athleticfrog

咋觉得你就是在说我那。

本来一个人住burwood 2 bedroom, 失业后搬到parramatta跟人合租，而且有游荡澳洲并离开澳洲的计划， 呵呵。