悉尼是地球上最明显的泡沫? ? 为什么有人经常引用Steve Keen

liu88

悉尼是地球上最明显的泡沫---这句话出自Steve Keen
"Is Sydney in a bubble? Absolutely. It is the most obvious bubble on the planet apart from China and Canada," he said.
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/a ... ebt-20160929-grrd1x


Steve Keen, 1953年出生于悉尼
1974年毕业于悉尼大学，文学士
1976年毕业于悉尼大学，法学士
1977年悉尼教师学院，教育文凭
1990年，UNSW大学商学士毕业， 专修经济学和经济史
1998年，UNSW大学经济学博士毕业
2013年之前担任西悉尼大学经济学副教授
2014年起，担任英国Kingston大学经济学教授，经济系主任


2008年9月，Steve预测2009年澳洲房价暴跌40%
Australian property prices will fall 40% in 2009

2009年，Steve预测澳洲房价将在10-15年内暴跌40%
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2688011.htm
STEPHEN LONG: OK, well speaking of Australia and property, one of your predictions was that we would see a 40 per cent fall in house prices, it hasn't happened. Why not?

STEVE KEEN: Because I said over 10 to 15 years. This is one of those things where sometimes you'd like to bite your tongue afterwards for saying things like this because it's always taken out of context.

I was asked what would happen to Australian property prices in a crash and I said, I see no reason why we won't go through the same fate Japan has gone through where prices have fallen 40 per cent over a 10 to 15 year period. The statute of limitations of that prediction is 2025. We're still a few years away from then.

2010年4月15日 Steve再次重申澳洲房价暴跌40% 依然有效
http://www.smh.com.au/business/p ... -20100414-sdn0.html
The professor of economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney warns that the second part of the bet made with Robertson - that home prices will sink by 40 per cent within 15 years - remains live.

2011年10月，Steve预测Prices will fall 20% by 2013 (later revised his predicted decline to 5-10%).


2016年8月1日Steve 再发狂言：澳洲房价将暴跌40%-70%
Australia's credit binge will lead to a bust as soon as next year, with house prices to fall between 40 and 70 per cent and unemployment to rise sharply, Professor Steve Keen say
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016- ... recession-next-year,-professor-keen-says/7674154

liu88

2016年8月1日Steve 再发狂言：澳洲房价将暴跌40%-70%

Australia's credit binge will lead to a bust as soon as next year, with house prices to fall between 40 and 70 per cent and unemployment to rise sharply, Professor Steve Keen say
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016- ... recession-next-year,-professor-keen-says/7674154

liu88

Steve 2009年预测澳洲房价将在10-15年内暴跌40%
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2688011.htm
STEPHEN LONG: OK, well speaking of Australia and property, one of your predictions was that we would see a 40 per cent fall in house prices, it hasn't happened. Why not?

STEVE KEEN: Because I said over 10 to 15 years. This is one of those things where sometimes you'd like to bite your tongue afterwards for saying things like this because it's always taken out of context.

I was asked what would happen to Australian property prices in a crash and I said, I see no reason why we won't go through the same fate Japan has gone through where prices have fallen 40 per cent over a 10 to 15 year period. The statute of limitations of that prediction is 2025. We're still a few years away from then.

liu88

2010年4月15日 Steve再次重申澳洲房价暴跌40% 依然有效
http://www.smh.com.au/business/p ... -20100414-sdn0.html
The professor of economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney warns that the second part of the bet made with Robertson - that home prices will sink by 40 per cent within 15 years - remains live.

一定要mark

他不是诺奖得主吗？

liu88

预测澳洲房价暴跌的不止只有臭名昭著的Steve

其它人士有

2010年BIS的Richard Robinson曾发布大胆预测：
未来3年，即2013年年底之前澳洲的Cash Rate 会达到6.5%，房贷利率将超过9%
结果是： 2016年澳洲房贷利率是4%，现金率1.5%
Date: 2010
Prediction: The cash rate will reach 6.5% and mortgage rates will be above 9% by 2013.
Forecaster: BIS Shrapnel’s Richard Robinson
Outcome: The cash rate has been well below 4% and is now 1.5%.

2010年美国大嘴Jeremy Grantham澳洲房价泡沫即将爆破
Date: 2010
Prediction: The “Australian housing bubble” will burst soon.
Forecaster: Jeremy Grantham, US spruiker


2010年BIS预测澳洲房价将崩盘
Date: February2010
Prediction: “Price surge heralds big crash” Headline in The Australian, speaking of Melbourne.
Forecaster: BIS Shrapnel’s Jason Anderson

Date:         February 2010
Prediction: “Prices could fall as higher interest rates bite”. Headline in the Herald Sun.
Forecaster: Economist Craig James of CommSec


Date:         March 2010
Prediction: House prices will soar in Brisbane because of a housing shortage.
Forecaster: Access Economics’ Chris Richardson
Outcome: Brisbane prices in next 4yrs were +1%, -7%, -1%, +5%.

2010年8月摩根斯坦利预测澳洲房价虚高40%，泡沫即将爆破
Date: August 2010
Prediction: The Australian market is 40% over-valued and the bubble will burst soon.
Forecaster: Morgan Stanley’s Gerard Minack


2011年3月某XX预测澳洲房价将暴跌61%
Date: March 2011
Prediction: “The value of your home could fall 61% the minute interest rates start rising.”
Forecaster: Kris Sayce, Money Morning

2011年8月某XX预测墨尔本房价将大跌30%
Date: August 2011
Prediction: Melbourne will experience “a US-style property crash with price falls of 30%”.
Forecaster: Prosper Australia

2011年9月美国大嘴Harry Dent预测2012年澳洲房价将大跌40%，并强烈建议澳洲人民贱卖房产
Date: September 2011
Prediction: Prices will fall 40% in 2012, Australians advised to “sell their excess real estate”.
Forecaster: Harry Dent, US spruiker

2011年11月，联邦银行总裁Ralph Norris警告澳洲房产处于危险
Date: November 2011
Prediction: The sovereign debt crisis in Europe will put Australian house prices at risk.
Forecaster: Comm Bank chief Ralph Norris


2012年1月美国大嘴Jordan预测澳洲房价将迎来血洗，房价将暴跌60%，地价将暴跌90%
Date: January 2012
Prediction: Home values to fall 60% in a “bloodbath” starting in 2013. Land values will fall 90%.
Forecaster: Jordan Wirsz, US spruiker

Date: February 2012
Prediction: The “slow melt” in house prices will continue.
Forecaster: Anti-property raver Leith van Onselen

2012年6月AMP的Shane Oliver预测澳洲房价过热，将长期走弱，大幅暴跌
Date: June 2012
Prediction: House prices are “chronically weak” and “over-valued”, heading for “a sharp fall”.
Forecaster: Shane Oliver, AMP Capital

Date: September 2012
Prediction: Australian housing prices will fall by up to 20% by the end of 2014.
Forecaster: Michael Power of Investec

2013年NAB预测2014,2015年澳洲House价格将微弱增长2.1%
结果：2014年，2015年澳洲的house 涨幅都超过2位数
Date: January 2013
Prediction: House prices will grow only 2.1% for the next two years.
Forecaster: NAB residential property index

2013年4月RBA 金融主管预测澳洲House价格走到尽头
结果：悉尼house house 2013年4月刚刚发力，3年大涨50%
Date: April 2013
Prediction: The rapid trend in house price growth is at an end.
Forecaster: Luci Ellis, head of Finance. stability RBA

2013年6月，Citibank预测澳洲house价格2014年到顶，随后将下跌
结果：澳洲house 价格刚刚起飞
Date: June 2013
Prediction: House prices will peak in March 2014 and fall thereafter.
Forecaster: Josh Williamson, Citibank economist


2014年2月美国大嘴Harry Dent再次预测2014年悉尼，墨尔本房价将大跌27%
结果：2014年悉尼house房价上涨20%+，墨尔本house上涨10%+
Date: February 2014
Prediction: Prices will crash “some time in 2014” – by at least 27% in Sydney and Melbourne.
Forecaster: Harry Dent, US spruiker

liu88

2011年10月，Steve预测Prices will fall 20% by 2013 (later revised his predicted decline to 5-10%).

liu88

预测澳洲房价暴跌的不止只有臭名昭著的Steve

其它人士有

liu88

Date: September 2011
Prediction: Prices will fall 40% in 2012, Australians advised to “sell their excess real estate”.
Forecaster: Harry Dent, US spruiker
Outcome: Prices rose an average 2% in 2012, 9% 2013 and 8% 2014.

liu88

Date: February 2014
Prediction: Prices will crash “some time in 2014” – by at least 27% in Sydney and Melbourne.
Forecaster: Harry Dent, US spruiker
Outcome: Capital city prices rose an average 8% in 2014.

liu88

Date: January 2012
Prediction: Home values to fall 60% in a “bloodbath” starting in 2013. Land values will fall 90%.
Forecaster: Jordan Wirsz, US spruiker
Outcome: City prices rose an average 9% in 2013 and 8% in 2014.

xyyy0518

我就想知道他有钱吗？ 他的投资在哪里？

darcylmx

诺贝尔届的贝利啊。快来预测一下哪个国家会破产

大韦

感谢楼主的分享。
以后要注意这些反向指标的动静。

鄭森

语不惊人死不休

dingyipu

xyyy0518 发表于 2016-9-30 13:06
我就想知道他有钱吗？ 他的投资在哪里？

肯定去伦敦买了房子，开始唱衰悉尼，可能要回来了。

liu88

预测澳洲房价暴跌的不止只有臭名昭著的Steve

其它人士有

2010年BIS的Richard Robinson曾发布大胆预测：
未来3年，即2013年年底之前澳洲的Cash Rate 会达到6.5%，房贷利率将超过9%
结果是： 2016年澳洲房贷利率是4%，现金率1.5%
Date: 2010
Prediction: The cash rate will reach 6.5% and mortgage rates will be above 9% by 2013.
Forecaster: BIS Shrapnel’s Richard Robinson
Outcome: The cash rate has been well below 4% and is now 1.5%.

2010年美国大嘴Jeremy Grantham澳洲房价泡沫即将爆破
Date: 2010
Prediction: The “Australian housing bubble” will burst soon.
Forecaster: Jeremy Grantham, US spruiker


2010年BIS预测澳洲房价将崩盘
Date: February2010
Prediction: “Price surge heralds big crash” Headline in The Australian, speaking of Melbourne.
Forecaster: BIS Shrapnel’s Jason Anderson

Date:         February 2010
Prediction: “Prices could fall as higher interest rates bite”. Headline in the Herald Sun.
Forecaster: Economist Craig James of CommSec


Date:         March 2010
Prediction: House prices will soar in Brisbane because of a housing shortage.
Forecaster: Access Economics’ Chris Richardson
Outcome: Brisbane prices in next 4yrs were +1%, -7%, -1%, +5%.

2010年8月摩根斯坦利预测澳洲房价虚高40%，泡沫即将爆破
Date: August 2010
Prediction: The Australian market is 40% over-valued and the bubble will burst soon.
Forecaster: Morgan Stanley’s Gerard Minack

liu88

2011年3月某XX预测澳洲房价将暴跌61%
Date: March 2011
Prediction: “The value of your home could fall 61% the minute interest rates start rising.”
Forecaster: Kris Sayce, Money Morning

2011年8月某XX预测墨尔本房价将大跌30%
Date: August 2011
Prediction: Melbourne will experience “a US-style property crash with price falls of 30%”.
Forecaster: Prosper Australia

2011年9月美国大嘴Harry Dent预测2012年澳洲房价将大跌40%，并强烈建议澳洲人民贱卖房产
Date: September 2011
Prediction: Prices will fall 40% in 2012, Australians advised to “sell their excess real estate”.
Forecaster: Harry Dent, US spruiker

2011年11月，联邦银行总裁Ralph Norris警告澳洲房产处于危险
Date: November 2011
Prediction: The sovereign debt crisis in Europe will put Australian house prices at risk.
Forecaster: Comm Bank chief Ralph Norris

liu88

2012年1月美国大嘴Jordan预测澳洲房价将迎来血洗，房价将暴跌60%，地价将暴跌90%
Date: January 2012
Prediction: Home values to fall 60% in a “bloodbath” starting in 2013. Land values will fall 90%.
Forecaster: Jordan Wirsz, US spruiker

Date: February 2012
Prediction: The “slow melt” in house prices will continue.
Forecaster: Anti-property raver Leith van Onselen

2012年6月AMP的Shane Oliver预测澳洲房价过热，将长期走弱，大幅暴跌
Date: June 2012
Prediction: House prices are “chronically weak” and “over-valued”, heading for “a sharp fall”.
Forecaster: Shane Oliver, AMP Capital


Date: September 2012
Prediction: Australian housing prices will fall by up to 20% by the end of 2014.
Forecaster: Michael Power of Investec

liu88

2013年4月RBA 金融主管预测澳洲House价格走到尽头
结果：悉尼house house 2013年4月刚刚发力，3年大涨50%
Date: April 2013
Prediction: The rapid trend in house price growth is at an end.
Forecaster: Luci Ellis, head of Finance. stability RBA

2013年6月，Citibank预测澳洲house价格2014年到顶，随后将下跌
结果：澳洲house 价格刚刚起飞
Date: June 2013
Prediction: House prices will peak in March 2014 and fall thereafter.
Forecaster: Josh Williamson, Citibank economist

liu88

2014年2月美国大嘴Harry Dent再次预测2014年悉尼，墨尔本房价将大跌27%
结果：悉尼2014年悉尼house房价上涨20%+，墨尔本house上涨10%+
Date: February 2014
Prediction: Prices will crash “some time in 2014” – by at least 27% in Sydney and Melbourne.
Forecaster: Harry Dent, US spruiker

Bigguy

啥时候能跌，好买房

icac

LZ好像写漏了某人

mdlp

lz总结的挺好
信专家 永租房

lxk

还不如预见跌5%，这个容易说中

kingburg

icac 发表于 2016-9-30 13:58
LZ好像写漏了某人

刘翻译？

应该查查这个人和刘司令到底什么关系

Delphi

这个Steven没想到中国大妈的力量以及胆量

joe.clayton

No Housing Bubble, says HSBC

Australia’s housing market is not in a bubble, says HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham.

House price rises in Sydney and Melbourne have been offset by softer performances in Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane and the regional areas where housing demand has been weak, or supply has been boosted.

The factors attributed to the price boom in Sydney and Melbourne are strong state economies, major spending on infrastructure, demand for housing supported by migration (both international and domestic) and low interest rates.

“These fundamental factors largely explain the price boom in the biggest cities and, as a result, we do not judge it to be a bubble,” says Bloxham.

Price growth is set to slow in 2018 due to a crackdown on lending, new taxes discouraging foreign investment and expectations the RBA will hike early next year.

大江东去

屡战屡败与屡败屡战的典型