|
|
此文章由 kingsford 原创或转贴，不代表本站立场和观点，版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 kingsford 所有！转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明，并保持内容完整
香港房价自三月来的最高点下跌25%,11月交易量跌79%. 尽管央行一再降息,由于国际市场的credit crunch,零售贷款率开始不降反升(HSBC本周升了0.75)
[kingsford评论:澳大利亚和香港类似,银行的房屋贷款主要来源于国际市场.由于国际市场收紧,澳币和利率下跌,澳洲的funding cost spread已经从11上涨到59.4,一星期前曾经上探到82.澳洲银行之所以能够"pass on cut", 一方面是各主要大银行企图利用此机会扩大市场占有率,临时赔本,打击non-bank lender,另一方面,澳洲央行基本每几天就注资 1 billion左右到money market来弥补funding cost的上升.所以,很难说,澳洲还会坚持多久.零售rate可能在不远的将来不降反升,即使央行继续降息]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne ... 9x3g&refer=asia
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong home prices, down almost a quarter from their five-year high in March, may drop further as the credit crisis drives up joblessness and threatens to spark defaults.
“There’s a real lack of funds,” Leland Sun, chairman of Hong Kong-based Pan Asian Mortgage Co., said at a Bloomberg forum yesterday. “Banks are unwilling to lend to other banks, let alone individuals and small and medium businesses.”
HSBC Holdings Plc, the city’s biggest bank by branches, raised mortgage rates as much as 75 basis points this week, the most in a decade. Increased risk has prompted banks to tighten credit even as benchmark borrowing costs fall worldwide, reviving memories of the 1997-98 Asian crisis when Hong Kong home prices slumped by two-thirds from their peak.
“The latest rate hikes in mortgage interest rates, more job losses and weak retail sales figures suggest that the outlook for the property markets in Hong Kong will remain difficult,” Citigroup Inc. Hong Kong-based analysts Tony Tsang and Marco Sze wrote in a Dec. 2 research note.
Mortgage rates in Hong Kong have climbed even as the de facto central bank has cut benchmark borrowing costs in line with the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has reduced its target federal funds rate nine times since September, 2007, in an effort to spur lending.
Higher interest rates may depress sales and contribute to further declines in home prices, which already have fallen 22 percent since March, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd.
The number of housing units changing hands fell 79 percent in November, the biggest decline in at least 12 years, according to the government.
HSBC, Fed
Banks in Hong Kong are raising mortgage charges after having tracked six of the Fed’s past nine benchmark rate cuts. HSBC cut its best rate to a four-year low of 5 percent on Nov. 7.
The Hong Kong University Property Derivative Index shows investors expect a drop of as much as 30 percent in property prices in the next year, Richard Wo, head of Product Services and Training at Sun Hung Kai Financial Ltd., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
The number of homeowners with apartments worth less than their mortgages surged 174 percent in the third quarter, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said last month. With prices of some homes lower than the value of the loans they secure, banks may not be able to recoup the money they are owed when the sell apartments on which they have foreclosed.
Negative Equity
Sun at mortgage originator Pan Asian said “negative equity” homeowners in Hong Kong might rise higher than in 2003, though he said people will keep paying their mortgages, as long as joblessness doesn’t spiral.
Homebuyers and banks may be concerned both about Hong Kong’s economy, which contracted 0.5 percent in the third quarter to put the city in its first recession in 2003, and the jobless rate -- which rose to 3.5 percent in October. A further 6,000 jobs have been lost in the past six weeks, the South China Morning Post newspaper reported on Dec. 1.
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Hong Kong’s biggest developer by market value, had its target price cut by Citigroup Inc. on expectations prices will fall further. Still, Sun Hung Kai told shareholders yesterday that prices stabilized in the past two weeks.
Hang Seng Index
The Hang Seng Property Index, tracking the share of the city’s biggest developers, has fallen 61 percent in 2008, more than the 50 percent drop in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
HSBC itself, which employs more than 21,000 people in Hong Kong, said last month that it’s cutting 450 jobs in the city. Standard Chartered Plc said on Dec. 2 it will fire 200 people, 4 percent of its Hong Kong employees.
Still, the mortgage delinquency ratio was unchanged at 0.05 percent in October, the HKMA said last month. That compares with a ratio of 0.78 percent in October 1998.
Peter Wong, an executive director at HSBC’s Asia-Pacific unit, said economic conditions may dictate further mortgage rate increases.
“We have not decided whether we will raise interest rates again,” Wong told reporters in a briefing this week. “That depends on the operating environment, and also on the credit and risk profile in the economy.”
[ 本帖最后由 kingsford 于 2008-12-8 08:23 编辑 ] |
评分
-
查看全部评分
|
越写越不详细的新西兰14天房车游记♥♥♥努力更新到第九天福克斯冰川♥♥♥ (2014-10-18) 小兔白又白 
发表于 2008-12-8 07:05
