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http://www.theaustralian.news.co ... 4723428-601,00.html
Signs of recovery in property market
Turi Condon, Property editor | November 29, 2008 Article from: The Australian
AUSTRALIA'S residential market is scraping itself off the bottom with house and apartment prices growing -- if only by 0.3per cent for the October quarter -- after falling for the past six months.
It may not seem much, but it is the first two consecutive months of growth since the housing downturn began, according to research from RP Data and Rismark International.
"The doom and gloom merchants have misunderstood the fundamentals and the diversity of the Australian residential property market by predicting that Australia was headed for a market-wide implosion in 2008," according to RP Data head of research Tim Lawless.
Australian property values had fallen just 0.8 per cent over the year to October, compared with the share market's (S&P/ASX 200 index) 40.5per cent drop, Mr Lawless said.
"The Australian property market has moved through the bottom of its cycle," he said yesterday, releasing RP Data-Rismark's latest residential price index to the end of October.
But the company cautions not to expect a quick turnaround and forecast flat housing prices in the first half of next year.
Australia's biggest apartment builder, billionaire Harry Triguboff, earlier this month also called the bottom of the residential market. Mr Triguboff told The Australian his Meriton group was seeing some return of demand and hoped to boost sales from 1000 a year to 1500 in 2009.
Other commentators are more pessimistic. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver believes Australia's house prices are overvalued and could fall 10-15 per cent next year.
Earlier this month, Dr Oliver said an increase in unemployment posed one of the biggest threats to house prices. AMP forecasts the jobless rate will rise from 4.3per cent to 6.5 per cent in 2010.
One of the country's biggest developers, Lend Lease, which built nearly 4000 houses and apartments in 2007-08, believes buyer confidence is the key issue.
"Whether lack of confidence will cause the market cycle to slide (next year) was the issue," said Lend Lease chief executive retail and communities David Hutton. "I don't think anyone knows if it's the bottom. But sentiment will turn quite quickly in some areas depending on confidence."
Lend Lease believes Sydney and Melbourne's inner and middle ring suburban apartments will be one of the stronger markets when sentiment improves.
Tuesday's Reserve Bank board meeting should provide a confidence boost with analysts expecting another cut in interest rates.
Rismark International managing director Christopher Joye said the small housing price recovery for the October quarter was due to improvements in affordability from the rate cuts, combined with the Government's increase of the first-home buyer's grant.
"Based on current futures market pricing, we should see mortgage rates fall below 6 per cent during 2009," Mr Joye said.
RP Data-Rismark found Darwin was the strongest market (up 4.77 per cent) for the three months to October's end, followed by Melbourne and Canberra (up 1.12 per cent). Sydney turned in a 0.51 per cent house and apartment price growth, Adelaide 0.46per cent and Brisbane and Perth fell into the red (down 0.32per cent and 1.83 per cent respectively). |
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参加征文--从华人夫妻绣花厂到澳洲家族式企业 (2011-2-22) 南飞雁 
发表于 2008-12-1 09:42
.)下面是house media price和unit median price的变化.一个月的数据往往波动很大,所以仅供参考.自己愿意查的可以到: 
