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发表于 2015-11-4 07:25
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本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2015-11-4 11:36 编辑
More optimistic Reserve Bank signals rates on hold
3 reasons why the RBA would cut rates
Prospects of another official interest rate cut faded sharply when Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens expressed confidence that a resurgence in business investment will revitalise the economy.
Without any sudden shock in China, new commodity price falls or another major delay in an long-awaited US interest rate hike, the Reserve Bank will keep official interest rates unchanged at 2 per cent well into next year.
The dollar rallied after the Reserve Bank board kept the cash rate steady on Tuesday and Mr Stevens declared that the outlook for improved growth had firmed in recent months thanks to a sense of hope across business.
Mr Stevens' remarks foreshadow a likely upgrade in the Reserve Bank's economic forecasts on Friday and suggest he believes Australia's transition away from resources investment to other growth drivers is gathering strength.
In the lead up to Tuesday's decision, most economist's forecasts and financial market betting indicated the Reserve Bank would lower the cash rate to 1.75 per cent early in 2016.
In the lead up to Tuesday's decision, most economist's forecasts and financial market betting indicated the Reserve Bank would lower the cash rate to 1.75 per cent early in 2016. Louie Douvis
Financial market traders slashed the probability of a rate cut in December to 32 per cent from 72 per cent ahead of the decision.
Major business leaders portrayed the central bank's actions as a vote of confidence in the economy, which is benefiting from a 20 per cent drop in the currency over the past year, an increase in business borrowing and rising spending in retail, construction, transport and services.
Qantas Airways chief executive Alan Joyce said he was quite optimistic on the economy's direction.
"The RBA are making the right call to ensure we have a competitive dollar; we're doing the right thing for inflation; we're doing the right thing for employment, and it's great to see with the new [federal] government consumer confidence and business confidence has improved," he said.
The dollar was modestly higher after the decision was announced, firming to US71.90¢ from around US71.70¢.
Mr Stevens said while headline gross domestic product growth has been below long-run averages for some time, surveys of business sentiment and conditions suggest "a gradual improvement in conditions over the past year."
Marked gains revealed in surveys
The remarks reflect marked gains in surveys such as National Australia Bank's business conditions research, ANZ Bank's job advertisement series, and comments by figures such as NAB chief executive Andrew Thorburn that confidence more broadly is lifting.
"Hopefully that can keep going because I think that will mean businesses will start to say 'right, I'm going to borrow some money or I'm going to use some of my cash to invest in new product lines'," Mr Thorburn told The Australian Financial Review last week.
Speculation grew a week ago in the wake of weak inflation data that the Reserve Bank would cut the cash rate to 1.75 per cent. Instead, Mr Stevens acknowledged low inflation may allow another cut in future but signalled this would only happen if growth again disappoints.
"The outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand," he said.
The key word in that sentence is "may", suggesting the likelihood of another rate cut will depend heavily on any unexpectedly bad economic news from China – Australia's biggest trade partner – or further falls in iron ore and coal prices.
The final driver of another rate cut may be signs that the US Federal Reserve will again delay what would be its first interest rate hike since 2006. Such a delay could drive up the value of the Australian dollar, weakening the recovery in tourism and other currency-exposed industries.
"The statement gives the RBA maximum flexibility depending on how the economy evolves," said Su-Lin Ong, an economist at RBC Capital Markets. "The onus is on the activity data to disappoint to force the reluctant RBA to move."
Mr Stevens reiterated that the Fed is expected to start increasing interest rates, while other major central banks are easing policy, which is likely to drive the US dollar up and other currencies down.
By emphasising evidence of a recovery in non-mining business spending, the Reserve Bank signalled it believes the most stimulatory monetary policy settings on record are doing enough. The central bank estimates that the drag from falling resources investment is most likely at its heaviest in the current financial year, which means its negative effect on growth will soon begin to wane.
"The board judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting," Mr Stevens said.
He noted that volatility across global financial markets has "abated somewhat for the moment".
Mr Stevens suggested that the recent mortgage rate hikes by the big four banks would take some of the heat out of the property market but that overall rates were still very low.
"Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with growth in lending to investors in the housing market easing slightly while that for owner-occupiers appears to be picking up."
Pointedly, Mr Stevens noted that while prices were still rising in Melbourne and Sydney, in most other cities they were subdued.
"Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market," he said.
Mr Stevens again said that the currency was adjusting to the significant falls in iron ore, coal and energy prices. |
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