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房地产价格有可能会大跌 [复制链接]

黑山老妖

钻石靴族

发表于 2008-7-15 16:47 |显示全部楼层

此文章由黑山老妖原创或转贴，不代表本站立场和观点，版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者黑山老妖所有！转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明，并保持内容完整

文章大意：股市大跌后的6-18个月房地产市场也会大跌。当然也会有一些地方不跟大势。这次也不会例外。唯一值得庆幸的是这次我们没有太多的闲置房。建筑业的成本被矿产和基础建设拉高，商业房和居住房受到很大压力。随着价格下跌和房租会上升，投资回报会慢慢提升。

Property will tumble

In traditional markets shares fall and then six to 18 months later the property markets take a tumble. After the 1987 share crash property actually rose in value before coming tumbling down around 18 months after the big share fall.

This time around we are seeing a much closer link between the property and share markets. Housing markets around the country are in decline and commercial property is very soft. And the fall in the listed property trusts signals more than just unhappiness with the listed property trust model. We are likely to see a substantial fall in commercial property values in the wake of the decline.

Naturally in both the housing and commercial property market there will always be pockets where there are markets that move against the trends.

The Reserve Bank will not be unhappy with a fall in the housing market and believes that the fall in both commercial and domestic property will be reduced by the fact there are no current gluts.

What is not widely understood is that the Reserve Bank has concluded that the enormous investment planned for resources and infrastructure means that the housing and commercial property markets have to take it on the chin to avoid a blow-out in costs in the sector.

Interest rates will remain at high levels until the rump on the infrastructure investment passes – though there could still be interest rate falls if the downturn gathers momentum or there is a serious overseas situation.

But any interest rate fall will be governed by the need to keep the housing sector subdued.

This will have serious consequences for those building companies that are not involved in resources and/or infrastructure.

It will also cause sharp rises in rent. Also, the yield on investment housing will rise as values slip but the rate of new building is held back.

It is a very narrow path that the Reserve Bank is treading.