消費者信心降至近經濟危機水準

slj2009

坎培拉7月9日消息，12年高位的利率、破記錄的油價和高通脹壓力令消費者消費意慾低沉至近上次經濟危機的水準。如果星期四的總就業數字出現下降，消費者信心將可能進一步變壞。經濟學家說，好消息是，利率可能沒有進一步上升的必要。據澳新社報導，星期三的西太平洋/墨爾本學院的消費者信心指數在7月份進一步下降了6.7%，達到了1992年1月以來的最低水準。消費者指數在過去一年下降了34.6%到79.0點，這只比1990-91年經濟危機期間的1990年的平均指數高出7.1%。
聯邦銀行的高級經濟師詹姆斯（Craig James）說："澳洲消費者找不到任何可以高興的東西，到處都是負面新聞，短期內不太可能有所改變。" 他說，所有的好消息，像最新一輪的減稅「明顯被掃到了地毯之下」。

影響消費者信心的還有股票市場這個月下降了9.1%，聖喬治銀行獨立提高貸款利率。市場分析人士說，其他商業銀行可能會追隨。儲備銀行連續四個月保持利率不變和這個月實施的70億澳元的減稅也未能刺激消費者的消費意慾。

民意調查顯示，消費者口袋裏的額外金錢未能改變他們的家庭預算看法。消費者家庭財務評估與一年前相比下跌了6.2%，未來12個月的預期下降12.2%。

大球球

RESERVE BANK应该很开心了吧。

beibei2006

NO difference for chinese.

milkzhan

但是现在银行不又纷纷涨息了吗, 照这样子, 经济危机是无法避免了?

大球球

原帖由 milkzhan 于 2008-7-11 16:32 发表
但是现在银行不又纷纷涨息了吗, 照这样子, 经济危机是无法避免了?

Reserve bank want the economy to slow down, even a recession is ok for them.

I dont understand how can they justify that a recession with low inflation rate economy is better than a strong increasing with comparatively higher inflation rate.

And now, a large part of inflation are from the SUPPLY side, like petrol price and related commodity price increase, NOT from DEMANDING side. The higher interest rate will not resolve this, it will just destroy the economy and a lot of people's life.

大球球

原帖由 milkzhan 于 2008-7-11 16:32 发表
但是现在银行不又纷纷涨息了吗, 照这样子, 经济危机是无法避免了?

Reserve bank want the economy to slow down, even a recession is ok for them.

I dont understand how can they justify that a recession with low inflation rate economy is better than a strong increasing with comparatively higher inflation rate.

And now, a large part of inflation are from the SUPPLY side, like petrol price and related commodity price increase, NOT from DEMANDING side. The higher interest rate will not resolve this, it will just destroy the economy and a lot of people's life.

大球球

The commercial banks always claim that they ve got higher and higer cost in international money market due tho the US subprimary crises. And they keep raising the rates.
OK, let them raise, raise till a lot of people cant make the repayment and try to sell their property or just bankrupt. Then they got the smilar crises like US in AU. Then the job is done. You can get a lower interest rate, lower or even minus inflation rate and a SHIT economy. After that, Labor would claim again: "It is a recession Australia has to have, AGAIN"